Paper no. 910	03. 02. 2004
SOUTH EAST ASIA: 2004 – The year of elections  by C.S Kuppuswamy. Some of the major countries of the world are going to polls in the year 2004. The Indian Lok Sabha (parliament) is being dissolved on February 6, 2004 and the general elections are likely to be held in April-May 2004.  The other major democracy, the United States, is having its presidential elections in November this year.  Besides these two countries elections in some form or other will  be held in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan during the year 2004.  In South East Asia the elections are slated to be held in Indonesia, Philippines and most likely in Malaysia, too.  In Thailand the gubernatorial elections are to be held in July this year with the general elections scheduled for next year (2005).   The change in leadership, if any, in the ensuing elections will affect the region in its war against terrorism, the region’s economy and the stock markets and the functioning of the ASEAN as a whole along with the ARF and the APEC.  Indonesia  Indonesia’s parliamentary elections are going to be held in April 2004.  For the first time direct poll for the post of the president is to be held in July.  A run-off for the election of the president may be held in September if the first round in July proves inconclusive.  Twenty  four parties have been registered to contest the legislative polls in April.  However the two major parties that matter are:  Golkar: The party  which was the backbone of the authoritarian rule of Suharto  for  almost  three decades. PDI-P: Democratic Party of Struggle – the party of the incumbent president Megawati Sukarnoputri       The Indonesian Election Commission (KPU) has set some strict norms such as declaration of personal wealth and attestation for absence of criminal records that have reduced the number of candidates participating in the elections.  Only parties that have polled at least 3% vote in legislative polls can contest in the presidential elections.  In order to win, a presidential candidate must get at least 50% of the total vote and 20% of the votes in at least half the provinces .As no one may qualify under these regulations a second run-off (scheduled for September) for electing the president looks more likely. A bill has recently been passed to ensure that 30% of all candidates in the parliamentary elections will be female. In the current parliament there are only 45 women amongst the 462 members.  The election procedure is so complex that a clear picture of the new political order may not emerge before October this year.  Besides the incumbent president Megawati the following are also in the run for the Post of the President:  * General Wiranto – a former armed forces chief, a key figure of  the Suharto era  who has been indicted for atrocities in East Timor. He is being tipped to get the Golkar candidacy by sidelining the Party chairman Akbar Tandjung. * Akbar Tandjung  - the Chairman of Golkar and an influential political figure who  has been convicted in a case of corruption  now under appeal with the supreme court. * Amien Rais – Speaker of the National Assembly and the leader of the National Mandate Party, who spearheaded the reform movement to oust  Suharto from power * Susilo Bambong Yudhoyono – Senior minister in charge of political and security affairs. A former four-star general and leader of a small party called the Democratic Party. He was a senior member of the Suharto regime. * Siti Hardyanti Rukmana- eldest and wealthy daughter of former president Suharto popularly known as Tutut. Chusnul Maria of the Indonesian Election Commission remarked that in such a complex system there is potential for things to go awry.  She said“ Building democracy is like building a house.  We are just laying the foundations in Indonesia, it is too soon to expect us to fix the holes in the roof”. (BBC news).  Though Megawati is confident that her party will win and continue as the biggest party in Parliament, her own popularity is down after her two-year rule since she took over from AbdurrahmanWahid.  It was perhaps inevitable as the economy is still weak with her hesitancy to go ahead with economic reforms and the rich having their way, her linkages with the army in making some national appointments, internal disputes within her own party especially in selecting the candidates for the legislative elections and corruption being rampant both in the government and her party.  It is not going to be smooth sailing for her party and for her to continue as President, as Golkar, discredited during the Suharto years, is gaining strength with its strong rural support and secular nationalist credentials. Irrespective of the outcome, it is redeeming to note that Indonesia will continue to be secular.  Philippines  President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who came to power in 2001 after overthrowing the then President Joseph Estrada in a popular revolt, is seeking reelection for a six-year term in the elections scheduled for May 2004.  She was saying that she will not seek reelection but changed her mind in October 2003 as she perhaps felt confident of returning to power, despite the negative factors of a weak economy, rampant crime, widespread corruption and an endless war with Islamic insurgents in Southern Philippines.  An army mutiny in July last year had also undermined her leadership.  She does not have the flair or charisma of her predecessor and her kith and kin are also accused of corruption.  The other contenders for the post of the president are: * Mr. Fernando Poe Jr: - He is 64 years old, a movie star and a close friend of  former presidents Joseph Estrada and Marcos.  He has no political experience and has presumably been propped up by some of Estrada’s close allies. * Raul Roco:- former education secretary. He was trailing behind Poe in the popularity ratings. * Senator Panfilo Lacson: - a former police chief with a strong support from the Chinese community.  He has been working for over an year for establishing a support base from the opposition groups and the masses. * Eduardo Villanueva: - a Christian preacher and the spiritual director of Jesus Is Lord Movement (JIL), which has more than 2 million members. The elections in May were planned to be computerized but the supreme court had cancelled the contract for computerization in early January this year.  Hence the counting will be done manually which may result in fraud and violence as it had in earlier elections since the days of Marcos.   Mrs. Arroyo is playing her cards well by permitting the detained former President Joseph Estrada to go to US for surgery and thereby keeping him out of the scene and placating his supporters.   She recently lifted the moratorium on executions following a series of kidnappings and crime to project a tough image. This may be a double edged weapon as most people favour this move, the majority Roman Catholics are against death sentence. She has also taken a popular TV personality Senator Noli De Castro as her running mate with a view to improve her popularity and her chances.  She is relying on her links to the Roman Catholic church and support form the business community.  However her track record is poor and though the main contender Foe is a political lightweight, the anti incumbency factor may hamper her return to power. Malaysia    Since Abdullah Ahmad Badawi took over from Dr. Mahathir Mohamad as Prime Minister on October 31, 2003, there has been talk of early elections.  The last general elections were held in November 1999 and the next election are due in November 2004.  However in Malaysia the elections have often been preponed and held at short notice by Dr. Mahathir Mohamad.  In fact, in early December there were a spate of cellular phone messages and rumours of an early election indicating the date of elections as 20 December 2003.  On assuming office Prime Minister Badawi did mention that the Barisan Nasional (BN), the ruling coalition, was ready for polls “any time”.  In the last three months in office, Badawi has distinguished himself from his predecessor by setting his own agenda including an anti corruption drive and shelving controversial projects and contracts.  It is expected that the general elections may be held anytime after June 2004.  The BN has won all the general elections since independence and in the ensuing elections also it will be returned to power most likely with a two  thirds majority in spite of the change in the leadership.  What matters is that Badawi should win convincingly and reclaim the Malay votes that had gone in favour of the main opposition party PAS (Parti Islam Se Malaysia) in the last elections.  The swing of the Malay votes in favour of the opposition was mainly because of the dismissal and conviction of the former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim.  The “Anwar” factor is slowly dying down.  Badawi has to ensure now that PAS does not make further inroads in addition to the two states (Kelantan and Terengganu) now under its rule.  With his Islamic credentials and his transparent style of functioning he will use the next few months in consolidating his position in the party and the government.  It would be no surprise if the ruling coalition under his stewardship does better in the next elections. Thailand  As per the assessment of Lee Kim Chew (The Straits Times -26 January 2004) Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra  “is leading Thailand into one-party rule with the overwhelming dominance of Thai Rak Thai party in parliament”  The gubernatorial elections in July this year will be a forerunner for the parliamentary elections to be held in 2005. Hence Thaksin is using all his resources to ensure the party’s success.  If the present trend continues the party now controlling around 300 of the 500 seats in the parliament will improve its position further in the next elections.  Conclusion  Continuity in leadership and political stability in the region is a key factor for regional economic integration.  The region is beset with terrorist menace with organizations such as the Jemaah Islamiah and Abu Sayyaf.  Hence cooperation by way of sharing intelligence and concerted action against training, movements and monetary transactions of these terrorists has to be ensured by the countries of this region.  The stalwarts like Suharto, Lee Kuan Yew and Dr. Mahathir are no longer on the scene and it is a testing time for the new crop of leaders. They will have to interact better for their own mutual interest.  .Differences  between Malaysia and Singapore, Singapore and Indonesia, Malaysia and Indonesia have been there for years on  some major and some minor issues which remain unresolved and crop up every now and then.  In the election year as many sops are likely to be offered by the incumbents, the stock markets will be on the upswing and the purchasing power of the region will improve.  Perhaps only by the end of the year a clear picture of the political leadership in the region will emerge though no major changes or upsets seem to be in the offing.  It is only these four countries that play a leading role in ASEAN and hence the political leadership has a great responsibility for better functioning of the group as a whole and in its interaction with the other major powers of Asia and the world.
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