Paper no. 913	05. 02. 2004
TURKISH PM ERDOGAN VISITS USA: Estranged Couple, US & Turkey, Make Up by K. Gajendra Singh  Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayep Erdogan’s meetings with  US President George W Bush and other leaders, his interactions with opinion makers and lobbies have made Turkey and its media very upbeat about the outcome of the end January visit to USA.  Bush's "strategic vision" of Turkey  playing a leading role in the region and the Islamic world was “the major outcome of the visit “ according Turkish commentators. The announcement by L Paul Bremer, US administrator in Iraq that the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK ) was a terrorist organization, just before the Bush- Erdogan meeting set the tone for the discussions.  This was Erdigan’s first visit to USA as prime minister. Close allies for nearly half a century, relations between USA and Turkey reached almost rock bottom in March 2003 before the US invasion of  Iraq, when the Turkish parliament rejected a government motion to allow stationing off US troops in southeast of Turkey to open a second front against Iraq. They were strained to rupture point when US forces jailed Turkish military personnel in north Iraq.  Turkey with it’s million strong armed forces remains the only reliable US partner ( apart from Israel ) in the region and a bulwark against deteriorating security situation in Iraq, not only in the so called Sunni triangle, fiercely resisting US occupation, now even in south with the Shiites threatening to add further problems if power were handed over to unelected and pliable regime on 30 June, 2004 as proposed by USA. With US elections looming in end 2004, Bush leadership wants to give the impression that everything is OK in Iraq, more so after power is handed over.  Even the comparatively peaceful Kurdish north Iraq faces prospects of growing violence with Kurds wanting their autonomous status, protected by US-UK since 1991 war, to be confirmed in the new political arrangement when US hands over power. This has been opposed by Arabs, Turcomens and others. US decision to go after Kurdish rebels from Turkey sheltering in Kurdish Iraq would only lead to further turmoil. Mahmud Uthman, a Kurdish member of the US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council, said that the Bremer’s announcement was made to please Ankara.”  There is no basis for it, because first of all, the name has [been] changed from PKK to People's Congress. Their name has changed and they haven't fought or shot a bullet in the last four years."  The two suicide explosions, one after the other, on 1 February in Irbil in north Iraq, at the office of the Kurdish Democratic party and at a party hosted by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which together  claimed 67 lives and injured many hundreds highlight the deteriorating situation even in this region. It was not immediately clear who was behind the blasts.  Iraqi Kurds are not known for unity and many have natural sympathy with their ethnic cousins from Turkey.  Let the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) at least merge their administrations into a single government. Then claim to elect a KDP prime minister, a PUK leader his deputy with the PUK holding the post of parliamentary speaker. The Kurds plan to hold parliamentary elections next year -- a goal independent of U.S. proposals to hold a nationwide vote in 2005.  The last Parliament hardly met after the first session. Iraqi Kurd’s moves would be opposed by all neighbours who have Kurdish populations at home.  Turmoil in north Iraq has always created problems in Turkey’ s own Kurdish population, like during the Iraq –Iran war and after the end of 1991 Gulf war.  But both USA and Turkey have different long term perspectives in north Iraq, but for now they need each other badly.  Turkey is the only neighbour of Iraq from which USA can expect help and assistance in resolving a very complicated and difficult situation in which USA has got itself into.  Erdogan’s end January visit Erdogan received assurances from President Bush that the United States would help create "a democratic Iraq that is territorially intact."  Turkey remains opposed to the creation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, fearing that it would stir up nationalist aspirations among Turkish Kurds. The country is still reeling from its 15-year civil war against the PKK that ended in 1999. "Sovereignty of any ethnic group over another would not create a healthy result for Iraq, " Erdogan said in an interview before his talk.  " A federal system based on ethnicity would never provide a healthy structure." Erdogan said that "A confidence problem exists on the part of the people of the region who desire democratic rule in principle, but remain suspicious of both the fashion with which democratization is presented and the purposes of the democratic world."  "This lack of confidence is felt particularly strongly by the masses that find themselves on the wrong side of globalization; (they ) think that world order and specifically the great powers are unjust; and suffer from perpetual poverty and violence."  He also urged democratic nations not to be hasty in pushing democratic reforms on Muslim nations."  The voice of the Muslim world must be listened to carefully with an open heart,".  "Change must be supported with soft power and by setting a good example.  Wrong steps should not be taken due to haste.  The greatest strength of those societies that represent modern values is the attraction they create.  The ultimate success of the war against terror will depend on this." Bush promises to Erdogan concerning Iraq's territorial integrity and action against PKK, now known as the Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK) and Bremer’s announcement of action before the meeting were most gratifying to Turks.   Bush reiterated that  "The United States will not allow any federal structure that will divide up the country. We are aware of your sensitivities on the issue, and we will take them into consideration."  According to a high-ranking U.S. official, Bush clearly told Erdogan that he opposed an ethnic-based federation in Iraq.   The talks were marked by bon homie. At the lunch hosted  by Bush, he even asked Erdogan about football. Turkey did well in the world cup but is out of the Europe competition.  Erdogan himself was a keen footballer.  Bush also discussed with Erdogan state of agriculture and energy resources in Turkey. Later, he asked for Erdogan's views on the situation in Iran prior to its February elections. Erdogan said that democracy should be strengthened in Iran and that the reformists should be backed. While welcoming Iranian President Mohammad Khatami's moves to support the country's reformist candidates and deputies, Bush explained the United States policy that, "in the event that Iran does not halt its nuclear tests ( program) and fails to refrain from sheltering Al-Qaeda militants, the United States will not be able to establish a relationship with that country."   Bush underlined his personal religious convictions and told Erdogan that  "Believe in what I say, I am a religious man." According to a top-level Turkish official, Bush made the statement while assuring Erdogan that the United States would not allow an independent Kurdish state in Iraq.  Some  irony in that, Bush stressing religion much more than Erdogan, leader of an Islamist roots party.   When Erdogan mentioned last November's terrorist attacks that targeted two Jewish synagogues, the London-based HSBC bank and the British Consulate General in Istanbul and said Turkey had been targeted by "religious terror." Bush, said: "No, it is not religious terror.  Religious people do not engage in terrorist activities."   Erdogan also mentioned the Turkish government's call to the Islamic world for universal values such as democratization, transparent rule and the supremacy of law.  Erdogan said democracy in Islamic countries should be backed.  “This message reveals Erdogan's expectations of Bush, who is perceived as having approached the Middle East through inconsistent and tough policies.”  Said a Turkish commentator. Bush agreed with Erdogan’s idea for change in the Islamic world and stressed that Turkey was a model country that proved that  Islam and modernization could coexist in harmony. Bush ‘s "strategic vision" of  Turkey  playing  a leading role in the region and the Islamic world was the major outcome of the visit for Turkey.  Discussions were also held between Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Gul with U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice.  After receiving Bush's reassurances on Iraq, discussion of delicate details about the situation of the Turkmens and the status of oil-rich Kirkuk were discussed by Foreign Minister Gul and Secretary of State Colin Powell later. The Turkish side breathed a sigh of relief after Bush reaffirmed that US would not allow the existence of terrorist PKK in northern Iraq. While these statements pleased the Turks, the news that U.S. troops had raided the premises of the Democratic Solution Party, PKK's political branch in northern Iraq, indicated that the United States had begun to harden its stance and was keeping its promise. CYPRUS Another important subject of discussions was Cyprus in which Turkey  wanted US support. Turkey had declined last year a very generous offer made by UN secretary general Kofi Annan, who remains miffed with Turkey.  Cyprus was divided into Greek and Turkish Cypriot controlled areas following a Greek-backed coup in 1974, with Turkish troops now occupying  northern third of the Mediterranean island. But with Cyprus scheduled to join the European Union on May 1 and Turkey's application for entry into EU pending, Erdogan did not want to jeopardize his country's chances for entry into EU.  Erdogan acknowledged that a settlement to the long-standing partition of Cyprus was tied to Turkey's acceptance into the EU.  "It has become a prerequisite before Turkey's accession to the EU," he said. "Our efforts to settle the issue will probably ease our entry into the EU."  The Turkish side appeared to be happy that President Bush appreciated Turkey's  moves for a swift peace deal on Cyprus ( including a freer hand to  Kofi Annan) and said that the Greek Cypriot side should do something in return.  He also wanted U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell to get in touch with Kofi Annan concerning the Cyprus breakthrough.  But Annan politely declined any major role to Powell.  Nor did Turkey succeed in changing the UN mediator Alvare De Soto.  U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan is expected to invite the sides to initiate the Cyprus talks on Feb.9 in Geneva.. It seems that the Turkish side has accepted Annan's condition of filling in the blanks of the Annan plan along with his referendum condition, provided the Greek side also agree to the pre-conditions.   Other meetings Speaking at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a leading conservative think tank with close ties to the White House, Erdogan warned against a "premature" exit from Iraq.” a premature U.S. departure would deprive the country of a chance of  a democratic outcome after long years of dictatorship”.  "There is a step that has been taken (ouster of Saddam Hussein) ," Erdogan said "I believe it's necessary to actually go through the ( whole ) process.  If that process is disrupted and everybody is left to their own means, then there is no meaning of the initial action in the first place."   Erdogan said establishing an ethnically based political structure in Iraq would be unhealthy for the country and a cause of regional concern for years to come.   Allaying fears about his ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), he said that it was a mass  party established on the basis of conservate agenda.  "A majority of Turkish society favors modernism, universalism, rationalism and change that is not fundamentalist," said Erdogan.  Continuing his speech, Erdogan stated that his party pursued a conservative-democrat line, claiming that it constituted modern conservatism.  Speaking at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, Erdogan, asserted  that democracy was a "modern-day requirement" and that Muslim regimes in the Middle East should embrace a free society.  "Instead of blaming the outside world for the difficulties, they should put their house in order," he added.  Erdogan also addressed  a meeting at the Council for Foreign Relations along similar lines.  Every where Erdogan was greeted  by  chants from groups of Armenians and Kurds, who carried  placards such as "Stop Turkish Fascism."  "We are opposing Erdogan's democracy, because there is no democracy in Turkey," said a Kurdish protestee decrying  the actions of  the Turkish government against the Kurds during their civil war in which more than 37,000 persons were killed.  He also denounced the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Turks from 1915 to 1920.  Erdogan also met with Orthodox Patriarch Dimetrius and leading American businessmen of  Greek origin. The Jewish, Greek and Armenian lobbies are very influential with the US foreign policy establishment, especially the US Congress. While Turkey is quite close to the Israeli lobby in both its regional relations and bilateral relations with the US, in spite of differences on some regional issues like the Kurds in northern Iraq, the meeting marked an attempt to start a process of establishing relations with the Greek lobby.  The Turkish-Greek rapprochement was initiated by Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou and Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem. The Armenian lobby remains implacably inimical and succeeds in getting resolutions passed on “Armenian genocide” in various bodies in USA and elsewhere. Wolfowitz interview with CNN-Turk on US Turkish relations;  In an interview with CNN- Turk TV channel U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz responding to questions underlined that the PKK was a terrorist organization and Turkey had long suffered from its orchestrated attacks.  He noted that the PKK would no longer remain in northern Iraq and that US was determined to clear the PKK completely from northern Iraq.  (Unlike many European leaders, USA was always been opposed to PKK because of its Marxist ideology.)  Dismissing the PKK's recent move of a name change, Wolfowitz said, "We won't let them behave as a different organization by changing their name."  Known until 2002 as the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) and then as the Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK) it announced last November that it would be replaced by KONGRA-GEL that would seek a peaceful solution with Turkey. Turkey and the United States had rejected this move.   Asked about Turkish concerns over recent claims by Iraqi Kurdish leaders on establishment of an ethnicity-based federation, Wolfowitz said that a federal system was inevitable for Iraq especially because of Iraq’s history, but such a federation should be based on administrative and geographical lines, not along ethnic elements. "We are in complete agreement with Turkey on the issue."  Asked about new  U.S.-Turkey relationship and the past bitterness, Wolfowitz noted that neither forgiving Turkey nor forgetting what was done in the past interested them, adding that the future of the region and the whole of the Middle East was important to them and in this sense the partnership between Turkey and the U.S. should continue.   Noting that U.S.-Turkey relations have entered a new era, a Bush administration's influential policy maker said that the strategic partnership between the two countries used to be dependent only on military cooperation.  However from now on the basis of the strategic partnership will comprise of issues like democracy and secularism. Wolfowitz said that Turkey with its democratic structure has a very important place in their Middle East project.  In addition to assurances on Iraq and the PKK Wolfowitz praised Turkish steps on the way for a settlement on Cyprus.  Calling Turkey's recent initiatives for a settlement on Cyprus "very encouraging," Wolfowitz said there was still an opportunity to reach a solution on Cyprus and that every one would benefit from such a development.    Erdogan’s 2002 visit to Washington Erdogan was received in Washington earlier as the leader of Justice and development party ( AKP), which had stunned all by capturing 35% of votes and two-third seats in the November 2002 polls.  Most senior AKP leaders belong to Islamic parties founded and headed by Necemettin Erbakan, which were closed one after another by the judiciary for flouting Turkey’s secular constitution.  Even Erdogan was barred from November elections for his Islamic utterances. While Erdogans’s aim in 2002 was to soothe fears about his party’ Islamic roots, western leaders in USA ( and elsewhere ) had wanted to meet him and judge the new Turkish leader first hand.  He was given all respects due to  a prime minister and some talking too.  A constitutional amendment then allowed him be elected and become the prime minister.   But the strains between AKP leadership and the secular establishment led by the armed forces and the judiciary were made worse, when it exploited last August the requirement that Turkey conform to Europe Union constitutional norms if it wanted to join it.  Turkish Parliament passed a constitutional amendment that transformed the NSC, dominated by the Turkish armed forces, into an advisory civilian body.  Many senior EU officials had openly demanded that Turkish politics be freed from the military's influence, and its laws aligned to match European constitutions for Turkey to qualify for entry.  The reforms reduced the military's hold over policy making through the Council that was often used by the army top brass to impose their will on the government and even dismiss governments.    After Turkey’s  refusal to let US use its territory to attack north Iraq, US ships waiting to unload military hardware at the Turkish Mediterranean port of Iskendrun had to be re-routed to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, a delay that had then appeared critical.  When US land forces became bogged down on the way to Baghdad, neo-conservatives faced the flak back home, with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and deputy Paul Wolfowitz getting most of it.  After the fall of the Saddam Hussein statue in April Wolfowitz scolded Turkish leadership, which responded in kind.  Turkey did not know what had gone wrong especially its secular elite.  When the course of events after the cessation of major hostilities in Iraqi did not follow the course as expected by US decision makers in Pentagon, the two sides like an estranged couple started trying to make up.  Turkey sent its Under Secretary in the Foreign Ministry and Minister for foreign affairs Abdullah Gul himself to Washington.  In the meantime Turkey’s Parliament took a decision to allow its troops to help US forces in Iraq to stabilise the country.  However this aroused  very vociferous opposition by the Iraqis especially the Kurds and Iraq's Arab neighbours and Iran.  So the idea was given up.  As the Iraq resistance  organised itself, the number of US soldiers killed since April cessation of major hostilities reached a number higher than during the war, making USA and Turkey take further stock of the situation.  Mehmetali Birand: According to well known Turkish analyst Mehmetali Birand, Wolfowitz highlighted that the strategic partnership between Turkey and USA had changed. "Our strategic partnership has changed.  It is no longer as it was before.  In the past, this relationship was based on a military basis. Only military relations used to be discussed. This era is now closed. Military relations of course do exist but the new strategic partnership is not based on a military field but rather on democracy and politics."  “This is a new formula. It has not been put forward so far.  It is true that Turkish-U.S. ties used to be ahead of everything. Turkey, in the eyes of the United States, used to be a front base. Bases in Turkey used to be seen valuable.  Only the cooperation in Korea used to be commemorated and praised.   Now, "the Greater Middle East Project" of President George W. Bush has changed this attitude.  At the heart of this project lies an objective to achieve transition to democracy in Middle Eastern countries.  And precisely from this perspective, Turkey is now the new favorite of the Bush administration. Turkey is the sole example of the co-existence of Islam and democracy.   Turkey, until recently, was a country that drew attention because of its geographical location. Now, its democracy is in the spotlight.  To tell the truth, it is better to be the favored country because of our democracy than to act as the gendarmerie and take risk. “ Perhaps Birand like most secular Turks living in Istanbul has given too optimistic and simplistic analysis of the visit.  Dr Olivier Roy, Turkey and Islam French expert on Islam Dr. Olivier Roy, said that Washington had confidence in Turkey's ruling party, viewing the Turkish prime minister's trip to the United States as an excellent opportunity for mending relations between the two countries. Roy considered AK Party to be "the democratization of Islam," having reached the same level as the Christian Democrats in Europe.  He felt that Erdogan who followed the Islamic Ideology 20 years ago, has changed.  It was because of the existence of democracy in Turkey, illustrating the success of democratic principles within the country.  According to this writer Roy’s perception of  Islamic problems is refreshingly different from the Anglo-Saxon mould but his conclusions, like describing the rise of Islamic fundamentalism as another variation of anti-colonial struggle is too simplistic and optimistic.  It might reassure western public like Spielberg’s film “ET” that other world creatures are peaceful ( they might not be ). Islamic fundamentalism, like that of other revealed religions, after going through the evolutionary phase is now into a revolutionary phase . Iran  is  an example of the Shiite revolution and consequent turmoil.  Saudi Arabia and perhaps Pakistan could be the Sunni manifestations. (K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to Turkey from August 1992 to April 1996 with concurrent accreditation to Azerbaijan.  He was earlier posted as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal .He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies. The views expressed are his own  Email Gajendrak@hotmail.com)
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