Paper no. 915	06. 02. 2004
PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROLIFERATION FORMALLY BUSTED : An Analytical Survey by Dr. Subhash Kapila  Introductory Background: Pakistan has in the first few weeks of 2004 treated the world to a soap opera on the so-called busting of her nuclear weapons technology, blueprints and machinery transfer to North Korea, Libya and Iran.  This soap opera formally commenced with General Musharraf’s interview to Christianne Amanpour of CNN in which he declared (against the backdrop of US media reports zeroing-in on solid evidence of Pakistan’s culpability in nuclear weapons proliferation)  “....as far as Pakistanis are concerned, it is clear (proliferation) was done by individuals for their own financial gain.”  In what appears to be posterior protection measures by General Musharraf and the Pakistan Army., their own complicity was being attempted to be deflected by transference of culpability to Dr AQ  Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb and his band of pioneering scientists.  The main actors in this Pakistani nuclear soap opera are General Musharraf, the Pakistan Army and the United States. China too figures in this soap opera though the international media has not focussed attention on her.  This paper will analyse this soap opera in the order mentioned above and then analyse related issues. But first a few words on this so-called “secret”.  Pakistan’s Nuclear Proliferation- The World’s Worst Kept Secret: What stands  formally busted now is about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons proliferation. It is the first ever admission by Pakistan, mouthed by its military ruler that this had been going on. It is a different matter that he is deflecting it to the Pakistan Army selected “fall-guy”, namely Dr AQ Khan.  Strategic circles think tanks and academic circles all over the world and particularly the USA abounded with accounts of Pakistani transfer of nuclear weapons technologies and machinery to North Korea, Libya and Iran, for more than a decade now. Such transfer both pre-ceded and followed Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998. This also nails the lie that Pakistan’s nuclear tests were a sequel to India, as propounded in the West and USA. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme commenced soon after its defeat in the Indo-Pak war of 1971.  Pakistani leaders both civilian and military  thereafter by innuendo delighted the world  with boasts of having made their nuclear bomb, then being propounded as the “Islamic Nuclear Bomb” implying it was available to the Islamic world.  Pakistan all along, also used the transference of her nuclear technologies to countries opposed to USA as a pressure-point in Pakistan-USA relations. Out of the three countries to whom transfers have taken place, two are Islamic countries.  Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation was thus the world’s worst kept secret. To help the further analysis of this soap opera and dispel the doubts where the culpability exactly lies, a few words on the salient features of Pakistan’s nuclear programme.  Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Programme- The Salient Features: The salient features were: * Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme was not a spin-off from a civilian nuclear energy programme. It was a dedicated military weapon programme, right from the onset. * Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme’s overall direction and control lay exclusively in the hands of the Pakistan Army and its Generals. The civilian prime ministers were never given access. (claimed so by Benazir Bhutto) * Clandestine acquisition of nuclear weapons technologies and equipment and later their clandestine transfers to countries opposed to USA was handled by Pakistan’s military intelligence i.e. ISI through military officials posted in Pak embassies abroad. * The surveillance and security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme and establishment was kept under close and strict control of the Pakistan Army through a set-up headed by a Lieutenant General (lately two) and two Brigadiers and composed of crack Pakistan Army commandos.  These features preclude Pakistan’s nuclear scientists headed by Dr AQ Khan from indulging in selling/transferring nuclear technologies behind the back of the Pakistan Army. Those who are conceding it so, then should also concede that rogue establishments exist in the rogue state of Pakistan and that the Pakistan Army, its Generals and the ISI are incompetent entities.  Pakistan’s Nuclear Proliferation- General Musharraf Cannot Be Absolved: General Musharraf as the military ruler of Pakistan for the last four years cannot be absolved by any quarters. More than any other in the military hierarchy, he is to be held accountable at least for the deals with North Korea. The enrichment technology passed on by Pakistan to North Korea took place in his tenure.  General Musharraf, on the other hand, expectedly, has categorically denied any knowledge or approval of the sale of nuclear secrets and has passed on the blame to Pak nuclear scientists.  The soap opera on February 4, 2004 shows, Dr AQ Khan meeting General Musharraf, not in Islamabad but Rawalpandi, confessing his “sins” and requesting clemency from the military ruler. As if to say, Dr AQ Khan had any other choice in a nation ruled by the Pakistan Army. It is like the mafia films.  The Daily Telegraph, London in a piece “ A Rogue State?” of February 3, 2004 writes: “These highly embarrassing revelations have shown General Musharraf in a poor light. First he attempted to ascribe the ‘nuclear leaks’ to the greed of Dr AQ Khan and his fellow scientists acting on their own. That never rang true; nuclear policy has long been tightly controlled by the army. Now it believed that the President will pardon Dr AQ Khan rather than put him on trial for treason.------ in the witness box he might well implicate General Musharraf ---in the sale of nuclear technology”. (General Musharraf has since pardoned Dr AQ Khan on February 5).  The alacrity with which General Musharraf confessed Pakistan’s role in nuclear proliferation and transferred the blame to Dr AQ Khan and his scientists betray his motives. The well known Pakistani columnist of the news paper ‘Dawn’, Ayaz Amir has this to say: “ The Pakistani leadership instead of investigating IAEA charges of proliferation gently and with deliberation and without waiting for inquiry to conclude, the Pakistani leadership (read General Musharraf) marching well ahead of Pakistan’s accusers, has confessed to proliferation”.  Ayaz Amir further adds, and which is more applicable to General Musharraf, that: “Trouble is that in the current climate of ultra-loyalist pro-Americanism (in Pakistan) realism is often hard to distinguish from defeatism”.  Need more be said on General Musharraf’s culpability, but then he has the saviour hand of the United States on his head.  Pakistan Army’s Complicity in Nuclear Proliferation: Pakistan Army’s complete control over the country’s nuclear projects and every associated activity stands pointed out above.  In the on-going soap opera, additional facts that need highlighting are: * Pakistan has officially admitted that in the ongoing investigation, two former military Chiefs of Army Staff of the Pak Army were questioned. They were General Aslam Beg(1988-1991) and General Karamat (1997-1998). Pakistan officially claims that no credible evidence was found against them. * The evidence against  Dr Khan is that he used aircraft to lift out nuclear blueprints and equipment out of the country. Surely, the Pak Army could not be unaware that C-130 aircraft were being used and taking off from Pak airfields, most obviously, Pak military airfields.  * The Pakistani nuclear scientists were kept under tight surveillance by the Pak Army and its intelligence agency both within Pakistan and on their visits abroad. During their foreign visits they were constantly chaperoned by Pak defence attaches and ISI officers posted in Pak embassies. The Pakistan Army to evade its complicity and accountability is now following a twin-pronged strategy, namely: * Deflect the blame on Dr AQ Khan and his scientists as “ fall guys” and make the world believe that it was not an official Pakistani programme but a rogue operation for financial gain. * Having selected Dr AQ Khan as the “fall guy” (under coercion) not to formally charge him in a court of law, but take administrative actions in the form of an official pardon on his clemency plea.  Ayaz Amir needs to be quoted here again. In his ‘Dawn’ column he states: “Nor is it particularly astute of us (Pakistanis) to think that by exonerating Army Chiefs( the real guarantors of Pakistani nuclear programme) and making sacrificial lambs of Dr AQ Khan and a few other scientists, will convince the world of our good intentions. The world is not populated with gullible fools as we seem to imagine.”  General Musharraf has warned Pakistan journalists to cease speculating on the role of the Pakistan Army in nuclear technology transfers. Yet one more posterior protection measure by the Pak Army.  The United States Whitewashes Pakistan’s Nuclear Treachery: Whereas the rest of the world and the Pakistanis included are convinced that General Musharraf and the Pakistan Army, through its earlier Chiefs were the prime motivators and ordered the transfer of Pakistan’s nuclear technology to North Korea, Libya and Iran, the United States official establishment does not seem to be so convinced.  Like the early 1990s and thereafter the United States Administration is playing a major role in this soap opera by whitewashing Pakistan’s sins rather than indicting them. Sample statements below would substantiate this assertion.  * US  Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage.  In an interview to a Tokyo newspaper he claimed that only individuals and not the Pakistan Government are involved in nuclear proliferation. He further claimed that Musharraf in power “ is something to be applauded and supported, and the Government of Japan is supportive of Pakistan. We certainly are and will continue." (Good luck to the Japanese for applauding Pakistan’s build-up of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal) * Scott McClellan, White House Spokesman- “That (Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation) is part of the past, and the past is the past”. Implication here being that USA would not proceed against Pakistan on WMD proliferation. * Richard Boucher, US State Dept. Spokesman- As per a media report he claimed that the United States welcomed the efforts of the Pakistan Govt. against the issue of transfer of Atomic Technology knowhow and maintained that steps taken by  General Musharraf were a manifestation that Pakistan was against nuclear proliferation to other countries.  Ever since 9/11, in relation to Pakistan, the United States is hell-bent in keeping General Musharraf in power in Pakistan and this has acquired the overtones of a crusade. Once again, as in an earlier paper. Hans J Morgenthau needs to be recalled for the benefit of American policy planners and the State Deptt. Included in his fundamental rules for  diplomacy, were these two: * Diplomacy must be divested of the crusading spirit. * Never put yourself in a position from which you cannot retreat without losing face and from which you cannot advance without grave risk.  By such official statements as these quoted above which whitewash Pakistan WMD proliferation, the United States is opening itself to the following implications: * Becoming an accessory to the fact in terms of Pakistan’s WMD proliferation. * USA will be forced to condone WMD programme of Iran and North Korea. * USA gets involved in the domestic struggle within Pakistan, namely of General Musharraf versus Pakistan. * US national strategies of pre-emption lose international support. As it is there was hardly any.  Analytically, it beats ones imagination as to how the United States could condone  Pakistani WMD proliferation when it was: * Aimed at building up WMD arsenals of states adversial to USA i.e. Libya, Iran, North Korea. * Pakistan’s WMD proliferation to these countries was strategically destabilising US defence allies in crucial regions, namely NATOs Southern flanks, Israel and Japan.  At the cost of repetition, the foregone conclusion is that the United States is heading for an Iran-like situation of 1979 in Pakistan i.e. propping up an unpopular ruler on the grounds that he is leading a nation towards modernity.  This assertion gets substantiated in the US Deputy Secretary of States Richard Armitage’s statement on February 03, 2004 in Tokyo: “ I think there is a growing realisation that President Pervez Musharraf is the right man in the right time in the leadership of Pakistan. The very fact that some people are trying to assasinate him indicates to me that he is being successful in trying to bring Pakistan into a modern and productive life, both in South Asia and more broadly in the world”.  All that one can say to the above is : “Sir, they are trying to assassinate General Musharraf as in Pakistani perceptions he has sold his soul to USA and the Pakistani masses are not in sync with the Pakistani General.” It is the fear of this backlash of the Pakistani masses which will make General Musharraf pardon Dr AQ Khan (since pardoned) and to ensure that he does not spill out the beans of Pak Army involvement. Pakistan’s WMD Proliferation – China’s Complicity: Since currently the focus is on Pakistan’s WMD proliferation, China’s complicity also needs to be put under the scanner.  In these couple of weeks of this soap opera, China has strangely refrained from comments. The reasons are obvious as China is a part of this problem as the facts below would indicate: * Pakistan’s WMD arsenal was built up by direct Chinese assistance. * China is also directly involved in building up the WMD potential of North Korea and Iran. * Pakistan could not have afforded to go in for WMD proliferation of Chinese origin without Chinese concurrence. * Pakistan’s WMD proliferation was to three countries, all of whom figured in China’s policies as being built up as counter pressure points against USA. Pakistan played the proxy.  India’s Reaction Strangely Silent: India all along in the preceeding years was clamouring for global attention to Pakistan’s WMD proliferation. Now that it is formally busted, India is strangely silent. Without adopting a “ I told you so” stance, India could have highlighted Pakistan Army’s nefarious role.  India could have maintained that Pakistan’s WMD proliferation was even more serious than the proxy war threat and that it was counter to United States non-proliferation policies. India is silent presumably because: * It does not want to derail the peace dialogue agreed to under US pressure. * Peace dialogue is with the Pakistan Army, represented by General Musharraf * Both of the above stand supported currently by US. However, India has to be wary of US intentions.  This formal busting of Pakistan’s WMD proliferation could provide the pretext of bringing into the effect in South Asia some harsh nuclear regulatory regime, through the back door. India needs to firmly discourage the USA from such inclinations.  Concluding Observations: Concluding observations need to answer a couple of questions for the analysis to be complete and these are: * The timing of the final busting of the Pakistan’s WMD proliferation Why now? * Would this put an end to Pakistan’s further WMD proliferation? *  Has the formal busting of Pakistan’s WMD proliferation served any particular US strategic interests? * What would be the impact in Pakistan?  Washington and New York were the places from where the formal busting of Pakistan ‘s nuclear delinquencies broke.  These could not have been without official US prodding and leaks. Thereafter, the soap opera developed on two parallel tracks. The US media coming out with more credible evidence and the US Administration white washing General Musharraf and the Pakistan Army.  The multiple aims being to: (1)   Shore up General Musharraf as the “Great Messiah” to modernise Pakistan (2)   Force realization on Pakistan Army that Musharraf is indispensable for US strategic interests and (3)   As a prelude to getting a firmer US control on Pakistani nuclear weapons. The busting may temporarily put an end to Pakistan WMD proliferation. As long as Pakistan Army and its Generals have exclusive control over the nuclear arsenal, future proliferation cannot be ruled out.  No concrete strategic interests of USA are served by the current bust-up except that it may add more US legitimacy to Musharraf’s continuance in power and a firmer US grip on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal through Musharraf. Pakistan has already done enough damage to United States strategic interests by transferring nuclear weapons technology to North Korea and Iran. It could not do more. The impact on Pakistan would be more intensification of latent anti-Americanism. While the Pakistani middle classes may not have been affected by United States war on Taliban and Al Qaeda, the singling out of Dr AQ Khan and his scientists and giving a clean chit to Musharraf and his Generals will be perceived as a national insult.  The Pakistani nuclear bomb has strong nationalistic overtones and making Dr AQ Khan as the fall guy will be perceived as a severe anti-Pakistani act both by General Musharraf and the United States..  As far as India is concerned  is has to determine as to how India could be a strategic partner with USA in controlling WMD proliferation (President Bush’s NSSP statement, 12 Jan 2004) when the United States condones Pakistan’s WMD proliferation beating all norms of logic. (The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email drsubhashkapila @yahoo.com)
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