Paper no. 918	09. 02. 2004
BUSH POLICY WORLD EFFECTS & THE JOSHUA OPTION Guest Column-by Gaurang Bhatt  The whitewash of the Hutton report in UK and the David Kay testimony confirmed to the world what it long suspected, that the unprovoked attack on Iraq was meant to get its oil, enrich cronies and create enough deficits to gut Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. This has led to alienation of some allies and much of the international community. It has further inflamed hatred in the Islamic world already burning due to the occupation and oppression of Palestine.  The A.Q.Khan Affair and the Farce:  The latest farce is being played out in Pakistan, where Dr. A.Q. Khan publicly proclaimed that he was solely responsible for spread of nuclear technology to Iran, Libya, North Korea and made similar offers to Syria and Iraq without any knowledge of the ruling military elite.  This is not believed anywhere in the rest of the world including even those in the regular pay of American intelligence. Chartered planes and military transports took off from Pakistani airports and landed in North Korea and were photographed by American satellites and yet the Bush administration glibly accepts these concocted fables as truth to save face, so as not to jeopardize Musharraf or his co-operation. He runs with the hare and hunts with the hound.   Only the American public, the single largest collection of gullible ones in the world will buy this pig in a poke, as they bought the story that Saddam was responsible for 9-11 and aligned with Al Qaeda.  Consistency with and credibility of the Bush Security Doctrine requires a pre-emptive strike on Pakistan. Instead it is given a free pass without even forcing it to sign the NPT or terminating its nuclear program. Why then is America behaving seemingly contrary to its own interests and policy by going along with these blatant lies and whitewash? The answer is a paranoid fear of Musharraf’s threat of apres moi deluge. (If I go, there will be a deluge).  There is another strategy that Pakistan may help to broker a peace agreement and coalition government with the Taliban to save the Karzai regime and allow America, a face saving withdrawal if necessary before the American elections. Thus a nation is betrayed by the selfish ambitions of its leaders.     Mockery of the policy of spreading democracy:  American action is bound to reaffirm the earlier signal, that the only way to counter American bullying is to have nuclear weapons and thus bring America to heel because of its paranoid fears. The support of Pakistan’s military coup leader with his manipulation of its constitution, courts and election process together with support of monarchies and cruel dictatorships in Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Azerbaijan and Central Asia make a complete mockery of much and repeatedly proclaimed policy of spreading democracy.   Not only has America alienated its allies, engendered antipathy in other nations and hatred in the Islamic world, but also it is now becoming the laughing stock of the entire world after this Pakistani debacle. What is worse? - It has become the most important cause of increased recruitment in Islamic terrorist factions as the recent increasing insurgent attacks in Afghanistan and Iraq and repeated cancellations of international flights and Ricin attacks bear out. All this is happening in spite of enormous increases in defense and homeland security spending.  Impact on US Domestic Policy:  Fortunately for Bush, the antipathy of the Democratic Leadership Council and the party establishment and the collaboration of the partisan media derailed the populist Dean bid for the presidency leaving the uncharismatic Kerry as the likely opponent. He is equally bought by, paid for and beholden to the same plutarchs as the Republicans. The disenchanted young, liberals and many intellectuals and minorities will stay home and not vote, thus ensuring a Bush victory based on the southern bible belt and the mountain states, a repeat of 2000 election, unless some Afghan or Iraqi catastrophe throws a spanner in Karl Rove’s well-oiled machine.   Why this invasion of Iraq?  The real reasons for the invasion of Iraq was to demonstrate American power, try out the newly acquired military technology, enrich corporate cronies and acquire Iraqi oil assets and thus intimidate Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran, while obtaining a permanent military presence in the region to serve as a stranglehold on the oil jugulars of Europe, Japan, China and India or other future counterbalancing powers. The strategy was a continuation of previous success in marginalizing Russia by the destabilization of its economy and eliminating its influence in Central Asia and South Caucasus. The weaning away of Kazakhstan, Kyrghizstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, began the second stage of this grand plan and the recent legitimization of the dynasty in Azerbaijan and forced resignation of Shevernadze in Georgia with installation of a new government, has completed the plan.   In the meantime America has cultivated reliable oil suppliers in Mexico, West Africa (Nigeria, Gabon, Guinea) and is in the process of changing the regime in Venezuela and stabilizing Colombia. Qaddafi has been brought to heel and is likely to be an alternative source of oil in the future. The aimed for plan in Iraq, is to follow their visceral penchant for the tried and successful policy of installing an un-elected puppet government by favorably packed caucuses and hunker down in protected enclaves of sizeable military forces to exploit favorable oil concessions.   The major flies in the ointment are continuing unacceptable US casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan and the looming perpetual budget, trade and current account deficits, presently financed by East Asian mercantilism and need to provide jobs to restless masses. These could derail the hopes of re-election of Bush Jr. despite his profligate and irresponsible spending, which with collaboration by the Federal Reserve has created a second bubble. The partisan largesse to large corporations transferring production to cheaper workers in less developed countries overseas, where there are no environmental constraints, has led to a jobless recovery adding to the misery index and generating an insecure malaise in the population. The smart remedy to divert the public from fiscal and economic worries is to draw their attention to a bigger worry, is a ruse just like home remedies that use counter-irritants like hot-packs or ice to muddle the injury messages from a limb or joint to the brain by confusing its attention with new iatrogenic nerve impulses. The specter of terrorism has served that purpose. While the Bush administration should be given credit for prevention of recurrence of another domestic catastrophe, the draconian measures used at times, have significantly altered the domestic climate and infringed on some guarantees of the Constitution. This has raised the ire of true liberals and conservatives.  If the desired strategy is unsuccessful, other contingency options have to be thought of. The unrelenting guerrilla war in the Sunni triangle, the quarrels amongst the Kurds and Arabs in the north and the recently developing opposition in the Shia South, could all further unravel the grand plan of Rove and Bush.   Indonesia is facing a rebellion in its Aceh province. Saudi Arabia is mired in domestic unrest and terrorism. Pakistan is a failing state. Iran due to oppressive tyranny of its clerics is an economic basket case ripe for another revolution. Various rebel and extremist fractions are bubbling under the surface in Central Asia and South Caucasus. Further active fomenting of separatist factions in Iraq or abandonment of it to permit a Civil War and fragmentation would destabilize the Turkish-Kurdish border and similar unrest could develop at Iran’s borders with Kurds and Azerbaijan. The last resort for America is to hunker down with Iraqi oil, ignore the unrest and foment more unrest in the other oil producers. This ability to bring the whole world economic edifice tumbling down without personal damage, as Joshua did to the walls of Jericho by blowing the trumpets in the biblical story, is the Joshua Option. This is one better than Israel’s Samson option which destroys the oil producers but also finishes Israel. It would lead to chaos that would make the dollar strong, bring the world to its knees and leave America relatively unscathed. It could then indulge in a satisfactory smirk and tell everyone else,” We told you so” and boast that it is the only one that can be a stabilizing force, the world over.  The China Factor:  The coming election in Taiwan may discredit the referendum seeking, independence minded Presidential candidate. The Taiwan capitalists have already been stalemated by the fear of loss of their over hundred billion capital tied up on the mainland. France, Germany and Netherlands are planning to lift the arms and high technology embargo on China despite US opposition. China has already increased its saber rattling against Taiwan by increased deployment of offensive missiles across the Taiwan Straits. It is waiting for an opportunity to see America further bogged down in the mire of spread out global conflicts, beyond its manpower and financial capabilities. A shrewd China may cease the opportunity to re-unite Taiwan, but it will be forced to sell itself into concubinage for oil, like it did once before for opium.   Conclusion:  The fragile rapprochement between India and Pakistan will unravel and depending on how pre-occupied America and China are, and how much it can shake off its intimidation and hesitancy by a backbone transplant, a final showdown is likely to occur on the subcontinent with resultant devastation. There is an equally strong likelihood that it will sputter on in its indecisive Hindu Trishanku state, just as it stuck to its Hindu rate of growth during its pseudo-socialist Avtaar and continues its current subservient incarnation. Japan will suffer the oil shortages that led to Pearl Harbor but this time will react like a Geisha instead of like a Samurai previously. Russia will reassert its hegemony over the CIS. A United Europe will become the handmaiden of America once again due to oil starvation of its economy. And history will repeat itself in reverse, from farce to tragedy.  (The author is a retired neurophysician and an occasional writer. The views expressed are his own. Email-  gpbhatt1@yahoo.com  .)
Back to the top Home  | Papers  | Notes  | Forum  | Search  | Feedback  | Links Copyright © South Asia Analysis Group  All rights reserved. Permission is given to refer this on-line document for use in research papers and articles, provided the source and the author's name  are acknowledged. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes.