Paper no. 981	20. 04. 2004
INDONESIA : Elections  2004  by C.S Kuppuswamy “Indonesia has staged what has been described as the world’s most ambitious and complicated single-day election”  - BBC News  Introduction  Indonesia went to polls on April 5, 2004 in the first phase of the general elections being held in three phases – Phase 1 on April 5 for choosing the members of parliament and three tiers of local officials  - Phase 2 on July 5 direct election for the president for the first time in the country’s history and Phase 3 on September 20 – a run off between the two leading contenders for the president if there is no clear winner in the first round.  The first phase of the elections went off peacefully except for some minor hitches and according to some analysts 87 per cent of the registered voters went to the polls.  Alan Wall, Project Manager, International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) has termed this election as the “most complex and challenging elections to have faced any democracy.  Let alone a new democracy such as Indonesia’s”.   The following statistics amply prove the complexity and magnitude of the election process.  Number of voters                            147 million      (estimated). Number of electoral districts             2025 Number of candidates                      448,705 Number of persons to be elected     15276 (for national, provincial and local  legislators) Number of polling booths                 600,000 Number of administrative personnel   3.5 million Number of ballot papers printed        900 million Number of political parties:                24   The logistic problems involved in reaching to the numerous islands in the Indonesian archipelago makes the task even more formidable.  For the first time in the country, the elections are being managed by a General Election Commission (KPU) and it has done a wonderful job in the last one year or so for making the required arrangements and preparation.   Special features of the Indonesian Elections  The electoral rules have been modified to a large extent in March 2003 and this will be the first election under the revised rules.  The voters will be casting their ballots for legislative members of the House of Representatives  (DPR) at the national, provincial and regency levels.  In addition they will also be choosing 4 senators per province (128 senators for the 32 provinces) for the new House of Regional Representatives (DPD).  While voting for the DPR, the voters will have to select a political party as well as a name from a list of the party’s candidates. It is compulsory for the voter to vote for a party but need not vote for an individual candidate of that party.  For choosing the senators for DPD they will have to vote for a candidate only.  As the bulk of the voters are not aware of the differences between most of the parties and their candidates the contest is more likely to be party oriented as it was in the last elections (1999).  Commenting on the new system Hadar Gumay, Executive Director of the Centre for Electoral Reforms, Jakarta states “ The leaders want to make a strong party first, and to do that they want to decide who are the MPs and who are not. They are afraid of losing control”. (FEER April 8, 2004)  Under the new system there are no residential qualifications for the candidates and as such a Jakarta based candidate can get elected in Surabaya.  24 political parties are taking part in this election.  Each party is given a number in addition to a symbol.  The party representatives had drawn this number in a lot held at the office of the election commission.  Indonesia’s proportional representation system is built around 69 electoral districts for the national parliament. The number of districts in the 32 provinces ranges from one to 10, depending on the size of the population; each district gets from 3 to 8 seats.  The outcome of the results of the first phase held on April 5 will have a major impact on the presidential poll to be held on July 5.  Only parties that had won 3 per cent seats in the legislative polls (for 550 seats at the national level) or 5 per cent of the votes can take part in the presidential polls.  This is Indonesia’s first direct presidential election.  In the past voters elected MPs who in turn elected the president.  Political Parties     Consequent  to the end of the New Order regime of Suharto in 1998 (after a long period of over 3 decades)  the political parties started mushrooming prior to the first democratic election held in 1999.  24 parties are taking part in the 2004 election as against 48 in the 1999 election due to the strict norms imposed by the election commission for the political parties  However the major political parties that were prominent prior to the 2004 election are:  a)      Democratic Party of Struggle of Indonesia (PDI-P)  Formed in 1996 as a fall out from the original Democratic party of Indonesia. The party became a symbol of struggle for democracy.  President Megawati Sukarnoputri is the head of  this  party  which won 34 per cent of votes in the 1999 election (the highest by any party).  b)      Golkar  The party formed in 1964 out of a mass organization called the “Collective Secretariat”.  Has been in power throughout the Suharto era.  This secular party is changing its colours since Suharto’s downfall to gain public sympathy and support.  Golkar won 22.5 per cent of the votes in the 1999 election.  c)      United Development Party (PPP)  The third major party in the House of Representatives.  Has been traditionally supported by the Muslim voters through the two main Muslim organizations, Nahadlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah.  These Muslim organizations have since formed their own political parties.  d)      National Awakening Party (PKB)  Formed in 1998 by Nahadlatul Ulama members for their own political interests.  Abdurrahman Wahid, the fourth president (deposed prior to Megawati taking over as President) is from this party.  e)      The National Mandate Party  The party has its roots to an organization called The Council of People’s Mandate (MARA) formed in 1998 by 50 prominent citizens fighting for democracy and to express their resentment to Suharto’s autocratic rule.  This party is supported by the members of Muhammadiyah, the second largest Muslim organisation.  Results of the elections held on April 5, 2004 (as at 11.00 a.m on April 20, 2004) Rank - Party - Votes - % 1. (20) The Golkar Party: 19,287,067 (21.11%) 2. (18) The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P): 17,814,035 (19.49%) 3. (15) The National Awakening Party (PKB): 10,886,977(11.91%) 4. (5) The United Development Party (PPP): 7,615,482(8.33%) 5. (9) The Democratic Party (PD): 6,879,372 (7.53%) 6. (16) The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS): 6,549,961(7.17%) 7. (13) The National Mandate Party (PAN): 5,918,636(6.48%) 8. (3) The Crescent Star Party (PBB): 2,345,426 (2.57%) 9. (17) The Reform Star Party (PBR): 2,099,182 (2.30%) 10. (14) The Concern for the Nation Functional Party (PKPB): 1,945,837 (2.13%) Source: The Jakarta Post.  News Analysis  As on  20 April 2004  over 80 per cent of the votes have been counted and the final results may not be available before 22nd April, 2004.  From the results declared so far in the 2004 elections  it is clear that no party is likely to win majority support.  The leading party Golkar has got 21.11   per cent and is likely to improve upon this as compared to 22.5 per cent votes it obtained in 1999.  Some analysts feel that the presidential poll on July 5 may not also produce a clear winner The percentage of votes gained by the parties (see table above) does not indicate that the parties will get seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) according to this ratio.  The system of distribution of seats favours bigger parties over smaller parties and those who fare well in the outer islands than those who had done well in Java..  In view of the multiparty system in Indonesia, and with no party getting the majority support, it may become necessary to form coalition of parties if a strong government is to be established at the center.  Parties with a nationalist orientation (such as Golkar  and the PDI-P) have the potential to form a strong and viable coalition than the religion oriented parties.  The results declared so far have clearly indicated that voters are secular in their outlook and are not carried away by the religious issues brought to the fore by such religion oriented parties.  The voting pattern has indicated that majority still prefers the old school of politics as seen from the strong showing of Golkar, PDI-P and the PPP.  On the other hand there are  voters (presumably in the urban areas and the younger generation) who are looking for a political change as is reflected in the emergence of parties such as the Democratic Party and the PKS.  There is widespread political disillusionment over the last 5 years (2 years under the deposed president Abdurrahman Wahid and 3 years under Megawati Sukarnoputri).  News reports elicited from the people from various walks of life indicated that the general public would be happy to go back to the New Order days when there was more political stability.  One of the main reasons for the disillusionment of Megawati regime has been the slow progress of the economic reforms.  Besides some of the reforms such as cuts in power subsidies were unpopular.  The high percentage of unemployment has not been attended to.  Corruption at all levels is also affecting the economy.  Incidentally a survey of foreign businessmen carried out by Hong Kong based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy Limited indicates that Indonesia is the most corrupt country in Asia for the third year running.  Indonesia is the world’s most populous Muslim nation with 80 per cent of its 210 million population identifying them as Muslims.  In the previous parliamentary elections voters had favoured nationalists over Islamists.  Consequent to the recent Malaysian elections, where the fundamentalist opposition party Pas was routed, it was considered that this will have an impact on the Indonesian elections.  The Islamic parties put together polled less than 42 per cent of the votes in 1999 and they do not seem to have done any better in this elections except for the Muslim-oriented Justice and Prosperous Party (PRS) which is ranked sixth.  PDI-P the party of the incumbent president was over confident because of the relative social stability and a better state of economy with a forecast of 4.8 per cent growth this year and a booming stock market prior to the polls.  The party had miscalculated that the people will blindly support her this time also.  The popularity of the party had also declined due to the poor quality of its cadres and their misuse of power.  Her style of leadership at the party and at the national level was found wanting in many ways.  She had picked up regents and governors against the interests of her supporters.  The corruption, collusion and nepotism (KKN), which was the major factor for the downfall of the Suharto regime has resurfaced under Mega’s regime by her tolerance and even contribution to KKN related activities.  The opinion polls had predicted Golkar would  stage a big comeback with 22 to 23 per cent of the popular vote but it has fared much below the expectations  With counting completed for more than 80 per cent of the votes, Golkar has only  garnered 21.11 percent  as the leading party though it is likely to improve  as the counting progresses.  It is forecast that Golkar will win 140 to 150 seats in the new 550 seat parliament.  However a clear picture will emerge only by 22nd  April. 2004 when the final results will be declared.  Run up to the presidential polls (July 5, 2004).   It may be remembered that in 1999, a loose grouping of Islamic parties succeeded in preventing Megawati from becoming the president even though her party (PDI-P) was the leading party with 34 per cent of the votes.  Amien Rais of the National Mandate party, who is also speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), is trying a similar strategic move this time by forming a coalition called  “Save the Nation Axis” with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). This only confirms his ambitions for the post of the president.  The leading contenders to the post of the President are:   Akbar Tandjung   of Golkar ( party ranking first in this election)  Megawati Sukarnoputri of   PDI-P.  Susilo Bambang Yudhyono of Democratic Party. Amien Rais of the national Mandate Party The position may become clear once the Golkar convention scheduled for 20 April decides about its presidential candidate.  Akbar Tandjung, a seasoned politician since 1977 and a former minister under Suharto, has recently been accused of corruption in a major case though he has been cleared by the Supreme Court.  The fight in Golkar is primarily between him and General Wiranto, a former armed forces chief  who has been indicted for atrocities in East Timor.   With the strong mandate for Golkar, Akbar Tandjung has all the advantages and the political acumen for becoming the next president.  However the opinion polls show that Susilo Bambang Yudhyono, the former security minister under Megawati and a former general is ahead of all the  other presidential candidates including Akbar Tandjung.  He has also scored over Golkar and the PDI-P by selecting Jusuf Kalia, the Chief Social Welfare Minister as his running mate for the presidential election.  Both Golkar and the PDI-P were eyeing him as their vice presidential candidate. The chances of Megawati returning as president by a successful manipulation of a viable coalition are not very bright.  As Abdurrahman Wahid made it to the presidency in 1999 from nowhere, the presidential poll this time also can bring a surprise winner, though it may not be in the best interests of the country.
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