Paper no. 999	13. 05. 2004
INDONESIA: Run up to the Presidential Elections  by C. S. Kuppuswamy This may please be read in conjunction with Paper no 981 dated 20th April 2004 on “INDONESIA: Elections 2004” by the same author.  The final results of the elections held on April 5, were announced by the Election Commission almost after a month’s delay in this long drawn process of compiling the results form the far flung areas of this vast country.  According to the election commission the voter turnout was 84 per cent.  However the percentage of invalid votes was also high (9% or 11 million votes).  This indicates the complexity of the election procedure for the masses especially in the rural areas.  The Results   The results of the five leading parties that can really influence the forthcoming presidential elections on July 5 are as under:                          Golkar                                                           21.6 %                          Democratic Party of                         Struggle of Indonesia  (PDI-P)                        18.5 %                          National Awakening Party (PKB)                 10.5 %                          United Development Party  (PPP)                 8.15 %                          Democratic Party (PD)                                    7.45 %  It is a setback for the incumbent president Megawati and her party  (PDI-P) which had secured 33.7 % in the last elections in 1999.  However the leading party Golkar had done no better as it had secured only 21.6 % as against 22.5 % in 1999.  Golkar had become the leading party more by default as some of the small and new parties such as the Democrat Party and the Prosperous and Justice Party have garnered a sizeable percentage of votes especially from the urban areas.  Presidential Candidates  The election on July 5, 2004 is Indonesia’s first direct presidential election.  In the past voters elected MPs who in turn elected the president.   The line up of the presidential candidates along with their running mates has become clear.  They are:   Megawati Sukarnoputri            with                 Hasyim Muzadi Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono      with                  Jusuf Kalla General Wiranto                        with                Solahuddin Wahid  Amien Rais                                with                 Siswono Yudhohusodo  Hamzah Haz                             with                 Agum Gumelar   In addition, former president Abdurrahman  Wahid  has announced that he will contest for the president’s post despite the fact that he will be barred on health grounds in accordance with the current rules of the election commission.  He is partially blind and has suffered at least two strokes.  His physical condition that affected his functioning as President was one of the reasons for his ouster in 2001.  Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.  He is a retired general and the former security minister under Megawati.  He is the frontrunner in the president’s race with 40.6 % according to a survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute.  He is the cofounder of the Democratic Party  which emerged as the fifth in the ranking with 7.45 % of the votes polled in the elections on April 5.  Jusuf Kalla, the former Chief Social Welfare minister, is his running mate.  Despite his popularity Susilo lacks the network and organizational capability of the other major parties such as Golkar and the PDI-P  Megawati Sukarnoputri.  Despite the setback in the legislative elections on April 5, she has some definite advantages as the incumbent president.  She still has about 20 % of the popular vote in her favour.  By opting to have Hasyim Muzadi, the Chairman of  Nahdlatul  Ulama, as her running mate, she has improved her chances of  return to power.  The 40 million strong Nahdlatul Ulama is the country’s largest Muslim organization and she can hope to get a sizeable percentage of votes of this organization in her favour.  General Wiranto.  He is a former armed forces chief of Indonesia who was indicted for war crimes in East Timor and  an arrest warrant has also been issued recently  by  the UN prosecutors in East Timor  He created an upset in being nominated as the presidential candidate by Golkar and defeating the party  chairman  Akbar Tanjung in the process.  He has chosen Solahuddin Wahid, the Deputy Chairman of the National Commission on Human Rights,  as his vice-presidential candidate.  Solahuddin Wahid is brother of former president Abdurrahman  Wahid  whose influence over Nahdlatul Ulama  and National Awakening party will benefit Wiranto. Golkar, one of the oldest parties in the nation, is well knit and  has a wide-spread organisational  set up in the country and this is big advantage for the Golkar nominee.  Amien Rais.  Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party is speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR).  The National Mandate Party was seventh in the rankings in the legislative election on April 5 with 6 % of the popular vote.  He has chosen Siswono Yudhohusudo as his running mate.  He is banking on his religious credentials and the nationalist type running mate   He is more of a “dark horse” in this presidential race. Hamzah Haz.  The incumbent vice president is also in the running though his chances of making it are very remote.  Conclusion  A distinct feature of this race for the president’s post has been the resurgence of the military figures in the political arena.  Jeffrey Winters, an Indonesia watcher, has said “The resurgence of military figures on the Indonesian stage is not the result of a military effort.  It is the result of a civilian failure” (Newsweek – 3rd May 2004).  The fight between the two generals Susilo and Wiranto may result in the split of the military backed votes and help Megawati in clearing the first round on July 5.  As of now, it seems there will not be a clear winner with over 50 % of the votes in the election on July 5, resulting in  a run off between the two leading contenders on Septermber  20, 2004  The inopportune time at which the arrest warrant has been issued  by UN backed tribunal in East Timor against General Wiranto is a set back for him though he dismissed it as a politically motivated character assassination.  Though the US has indicated that it will interact with whomsoever is the president, it had made discouraging remarks on his candidacy. It may still play dirty to favour Susilo.  General Wiranto will find it difficult to interact with the international agencies, if elected.  General Wiranto is the candidate most closely linked with former president Suharto.  The nomination of Wiranto as the presidential candidate of Golkar combined with the fact that the people had voted Golkar as the leading party in the parliamentary elections  more or less confirms the surfacing  “SARS”  mania (Sindrom aku rindu Suharto –I miss Suharto syndrome). The New Order regime of Suharto despite all its ill effects had ensured political stability  which is perhaps  what the masses are looking forward to.   The poll surveys may not be a clear indicator of the things to come. Since the poll surveys were done before the presidential candidates chose their running mates, they cannot be taken  as accurate and the outcome of the election cannot be predicted.  It is also important to note that voters will not necessarily vote for the same party in the presidential polls as they did in the parliamentary elections.  Though the final race is likely to be between Megawati and one of the two generals, it is too premature to predict before the elections on July 5.  The result of this election may not produce a clear winner and may only help decide the two leading contenders  to fight it out on September 20.
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