Paper no. 1017	04. 06. 2004
BANGLADESH MISPERCEIVES NEW INDIAN GOVERNMENT’S FOREIGN POLICY THRUST: An Analysis by Dr. Subhash Kapila  Introductory Observations: India’s change of Government to a Congress-led coalition in May 2004 has generated mixed and confused signals in India-Bangladesh relations due to a rhetorical overdrive from both sides in terms of professions of friendship and goodwill.  Implicit in this rhetoric from Congress Ministers of the new Government and Bangladesh Prime Minister’s overtures is that everything was wrong in India-Bangladesh relations under the Bharatiya Janata Pary (BJP) Government and now magically, everything would be now shining in the radiance of the ongoing rhetoric.  The manifestation of the above was the dispatch of Bangladesh Foreign Minister M Morshed Khan on May 31, 2004 to New Delhi on a four day visit as Special Envoy of Begum Khaleda Zia. He has since met the Indian Prime Minister, Defence Minister, External Affairs Minister, National Security Adviser and the Petroleum Minister. He also met Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and delivered Begum Khaleda Zia’s personal letter and invitation. He is also likely to meet the Indian Home Minister and Water Resources Minister. On his return journey he will be breaking journey at Kolkatta to meet the Communist Marxist Chief Minister of West Bengal and former Chief Minister Jyoti Basu.  Reverting back to the theme of this paper, what needs to be emphatically analysed are two sets of questions in terms of the present India-Bangladesh rhetorical overdrive, and these are: Can India afford to re-cast its foreign policy towards Bangladesh by moving away from India’s national security orientations to a regional populist foreign policy? Can Bangladesh abandon its “denial mode” of hosting anti-Indian insurgents on  Bangladesh soil and permitting Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI using Bangladesh as alternative proxy war base against India, just because a Congress government has come into power in New Delhi? On present indications neither can India genuinely move away from the national security imperatives of its foreign policy towards Bangladesh and nor can Bangladesh get out of its ‘denial mode’ pertaining to anti-Indian adventurism from its soil.  This paper attempts to analyse the above questions whose initial conclusion at first glance suggests that the Bangladesh government is misperceiving the Congress Government’s foreign policy thrusts towards Bangladesh, in the first flush of assuming power.  In doing so, it is not the intention to reproduce or repeat the profuse rhetoric on Bangladesh relations that the new Congress Government Ministers have indulged in. This stands adequately covered in the Indian press and highlighted by the Bangladesh media. It is taken as given that readers would be well aware of their unachievable declarations.  India Cannot Afford to Abandon the National Security Determinants of its Foreign Policy Towards Bangladesh:  Building good relations in India’s regional neighbourhood is a laudable objective and needs to be pursued with vigour by all Indian Governments of whichever political dispensation.  However, in the pursuit of this laudable objective, India cannot forswear away its own national security interests. When it comes to Bangladesh, the national security determinants of its foreign policy outweigh all others, including the economic determinant for the following reasons: * Bangladesh lies contiguous to India’s sensitive North-East which has been the focus of de-stabilisation through anti-Indian insurgencies by China, Pakistan and now Bangladesh singly and jointly with Pakistan. * India’s national security interests dictate that Bangladesh is not allowed to operate as a “springboard” for anti-Indian activities in any form or variety. * India’s national security interests dictate that Bangladesh is not permitted to be “Talibanised”. A “Talibanised” Bangladesh is not only a security threat to India but also to South East Asia and the United States global security interests.  Bangladesh, regrettably, under Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) regimes has traditionally adopted anti-Indian confrontational stances. BNP’s Premier Begum Khaleda Zia, while in opposition stands quoted as saying that the insurgents in India’s North East are “freedom fighters” and that Bangladesh should help them, instead of curbing their activities. The convergence on “freedom fighters” between General Musharraf and Begum Zia needs to be noted.  Amazingly, how come that the BNP alliance Government in Bangladesh headed by Begum Zia and composed of Islamic fundamentalist parties, perceive that a new Congress Government in India  can afford to ignore the nation’s national security interests. No Indian Government can afford to do that, if it intends to remain in power.  India’s relations with Bangladesh are further compounded by the following disputes on which Bangladesh has consistently adopted confrontational stances or a ‘denial mode’: * Bangladeshi illegal migration to India with potential of social violence and backlash of communal flare-ups. * River waters disputes. * Territorial enclaves disputes. * Inland water transit disputes. * Bangladesh rejection of supply of natural gas to India despite US pressure. Again a religious convergence with Pakistan.  Is the Congress Government in a position to overlook all of the above and view the building of good relations with Bangladesh solely on the determinant in the spirit of what Foreign Minister Natwar Singh said in a recent televised conference that since India has 130 million Muslims, so the present Government is determined to “re-build” good relations with all Muslim countries. Are we therefore to witness that the determinants of India’s foreign policy under the Congress Government are not going to be national security and economic imperatives but the Congress Party’s own “Indian Muslim Vote Bank” compulsions?  Obviously, as far as Indian public opinion is concerned, the answer would be a big NO as national security continues to remain as   the predominant determinant, and on that count, Bangladesh’s  policies have been impinging on Indian national security interests.  Bangladesh seems to have misperceived the rhetorical signals and  has been led to confused conclusions that a Congress government can go “soft” on Bangladesh’s impinging on India’s national security interests or that in the pursuance of “soft policies” towards Bangladesh, the Congress Government will sign away on all other disputes.  India’s new Prime Minister Manmohan Singh remarked in a letter to the Bangladesh PM that: “My Government is committed to building a mutually beneficial relationship with all our neighbours based on sensitivity to each others core concerns”. India’s “core concerns “ are that Bangladesh should not impinge on its national security interests. And that is what every Indian Government has to stand for.  Bangladesh’s Abandonment of its “Denial Mode” on Being Springboard for Anti-Indian Insurgents and Activities:  The Bangladesh newspaper “ The Daily Star” of May 31, 2004, made the following points in relation to the BJP Government's policies: * BJP Government had pressed that Bangladesh cannot continue in “denial mode” on terrorist and insurgent camps in Bangladesh. * Consensus in India that Bangladesh must be goaded out of its “denial mode” and take concerted verifiable actions against anti-Indian insurgents.  The Bangladesh Government till today in terms of demonstrated performance has displayed the following trends: * “Denial mode” continues without any relent. It was again evident in the early-May 2004 conference in Dhaka of the Director Generals of Border Forces of both countries. *  Bangladesh has constantly rejected joint inspections or other variable measures of terrorist camp lists provided by India. This stand was maintained at the May 2004 conference too. *   Gun-running on an unprecedented scale for terrorist groups of India’s North East took place as late as April 2004, with a number of leading ruling party leaders involved.  Are we to believe that out of consideration for the new Congress Government in power in India the BNP Government of Begum Zia will now stop the type of anti-Indian activities listed above and abandon its “denial mode”? Are we to believe that the Bangladesh Government will now adopt a “ human face” to India’s national security sensitivities in response to Indian Home Minister's similar “human face” statement regarding illegal Bangladeshi migration into India?    The new Indian Government's foreign policy planners would be sorely disappointed on this count as other than rhetoric no convergence of interests exists even with a new Government coming into power.  India and Bangladesh Relations- The Bottom Line:  Both India and Bangladesh need to recognize the bottom line in their mutual relationship. The “bottom-line” that Bangladesh has to recognize is that India’s foreign policy determinations are ‘national security’ based and will not and cannot change with a change of Government in New Delhi.  As it is the Congress Party Governments of the past have left behind a legacy of mismanagement of India’s national security in the past 50 years which future Congress Governments have to live down. India’s new Congress Government has to manage an India more awakened to nationalism on India’s national security issues and which has a bearing on Congress Party political survival. The Congress can hardly take initiatives in the Nehruvian mould of foreign policy. India needs to cultivate a political bi-partisan declaratory foreign policy towards Bangladesh drawing “red lines” which Bangladesh cannot cross in terms of sensitivity to India’s national security interests. An Indian policy of “political deterrence” needs to be spelt out and if “political deterrence” does not work then other forms of deterrence also need to be formulated.  Concluding Observations:  The Bangladesh Foreign Minister during his ongoing visit made a statement to the effect that Bangladesh had no territorial dispute with India and was also not a nuclear power and that: “There is naturally an area of friendship which we unfortunately could not harvest”.  Well said, but all this cannot begin until Bangladesh gets out of its “denial mode” in terms of terrorism and insurgency sponsoring against India. Bangladesh cannot expect that it can continue its ‘denial mode’ and expect that India will ignore all this just because there is a new Government of the Congress Party in India.  Nor should Bangladesh Government misperceive that “Indian Muslim Vote Bank” fixations of the new Congress-led alliance government can start determining India’s foreign policy towards Bangladesh in defiance of India’s national security imperatives and Indian public opinion sensitivity on that count. (The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email drsubhashkapila @yahoo.com)
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