Paper no. 1077	03. 08. 2004
TURKEY & IRAN COMING CLOSER Guest Column-by K. Gajendra Singh    Erdogan’s Landmark Visit Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s two day landmark visit to Iran on 28 and 29 July    capped recent warming of relations between the two neighbours. The visit is an important indicator of winds of change in USA’s Nato ally Turkey’s world view,  since the collapse of the Soviet Union, 11 September attacks and the US led invasion of Iraq and the widening bloodbath there. The two sides appeared to have put aside their deep-rooted historical and ideological differences and pledged to boost trade and address problems of terrorism. A major concern is the deteriorating situation in Iraq and Israeli interference in north Iraq. The two sides signed a Memorandum of Understanding on security cooperation. Iran's Deputy Interior Minister for Security Affairs, Ali Asghar Ahmadi said Iran has agreed to put rebels from the former Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), now known as Kongra-Gel, on its list of terror groups. Turkey in return would be putting the Iraq-based People's Mujahedeen (MKO) Iran's main opposition group on its terror list. Both sides in the past have accused the other of sheltering dissidents. Apart from a meeting with the Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, Erdogan held discussions with his host Iran’s First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref, former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iranian Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majlis) Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel and the Iranian ministers of oil, defence and foreign affairs. The 8th session of the Iran-Turkey Joint Economic and Trade Commission was held at the same time for which Turkey’s State Minister Kursad Tuzmen reached Tehran on 25 July.  Turkish Daily Zaman reported that President Khatami accepted an invitation to visit Turkey, which could materialize within two months With Erdogan, President Khatami stressed the important role Iran and Turkey should play in reinforcement of regional and international peace and security. They should safeguard their interests and of the Islamic world. He highlighted the importance of further consultations adding that "the two states should take strides to promote ties due to the sensitive situation in the region and should continue on the path." According to Iran’s official news agency IRNA, Iranian President Khatami reference to  "political urgency" for improved ties –was a clear reference to ongoing instability and violence in Iraq. Noting common goals and interest of the two countries, President Khatami called for joint plans to fight terrorism faced by the two countries. Joint action would be discussed and finalized through meetings of intelligence officials and governors of the border provinces. But the Turkish side reportedly was not fully satisfied.   "Turkish Daily News", Ankara quoted Firuz Dowlatabadi, Iran's ambassador to Ankara, as saying joint military operations would require too much paperwork and organization to be conceivable in the near future. Some, both in Turkey and Iran appear to be questioning Tehran's commitment to defeat the PKK. Bahram Valadbeigi, who runs the Tehran-based Kurdish Cultural Center, told Radio Farda that he believes Iran's agenda does not necessarily coincide with Turkey's: "The Islamic Republic of Iran is not completely against the PKK. It has always had some limited and vague relations with it. I don't believe Iran will take part in Turkey's plans." There are also unresolved problems about supply of Iranian natural gas to Turkey and running of an airport in Tehran by a Turkish company. At a press conference at the Turkish Embassy on 28 July Erdogan said that both Iran and Turkey had paid heavy price for terrorism. ''We don't want to pay more (price) '' he added. Pointing out that recent developments in Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine, Iraq and Cyprus were also discussed Erdogan said, ''both Turkey and Iran advocate that Iraq's territorial integrity should be preserved. According to our point of view, none of the ethnic groups should be allowed to become dominant over the others.'' ''There is a call in the Cyprus Report of United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan. The Council of Europe, the European Union, the United States and many countries have begun to abide by that call. We requested the Iranian side to be sensitive over the issue. During the OIC meeting in Istanbul in June, Iran extended its support,'' Erdogan reminded. He hoped that Iran would lift the embargoes imposed on TRNC. When reminded that Iran was the common target under the Greater Middle East Initiative and asked if this issue was discussed in his meetings, Erdogan said that Turkey, Italy and Yemen were co-chairmen of this project. Erdogan added that they would monitor progress in areas such as democracy, liberties, sovereignty and economy in Middle Eastern and North African countries within the scope of the project, and said, ''we will do our best for peace, welfare and happiness of this region.'' When questioned about Iran’s nuclear (weapons) programme, Erdogan said, ''upon our recommendation, Aref declared that they favored use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes only and not for making weapons of mass destruction. Moreover, he said that his country had signed an agreement with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but this agreement hadn't been approved by their parliament. He also said that they would continue their concerted efforts.'' Erdogan added that Iran should be more careful as regards its relations with the IAEI. Thus, he said, ``speculations could be prevented``. (Latest reports in western media indicate that Iran continues on the path to enrich uranium) About press reports that ''the United States has some sensitivity –last conveyed 3 days before the visit -about the natural gas issue” (regarding purchase of Iranian natural gas by Turkey ), Erdogan said that his government pledged to further improve relations with neighboring countries when it came to the power ( energy). Erdogan added that ''talks have been initiated to transport Iranian natural gas to western countries via Turkey. Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Hilmi Guler and his Iranian counterpart will have discussion on this matter.'' Erdogan added that ''we haven't made any discrimination among Iran, Iraq, Syria, Caucasus, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Syria and Jordan. We will improve our relationship with all these countries, because this is the way of guaranteeing regional peace.'' ''Turkey is determined to further improve its relations with neighboring countries and make joint investments with them,'' Erdogan said. Erdogan also told Aref that Turkey expected Iran to support its candidacy for a non-permanent member seat at the United Nations (UN) Security Council. An agreement to prevent double taxation between the two countries was also discussed. Referring to Israeli-Palestinian dispute, Erdogan said that Turkey continued its efforts for peace. Turkey had done and would continue to do its best to contribute to a solution of the Middle East problem. ``Turkey was also ready to do its best to solve settlement problem of the Palestinians``, Erdogan noted. He said that Israel should ``withdraw`` from Gaza Strip ``without demolishing the area.`` On the other hand, Iranian Vice president Reza Aref said that they were ``philosophically`` against weapons of mass destruction, and clarified that Iran did not have any nuclear weapons. Aref stated that Iran shared Turkey`s views on terrorism, and said, ``we will do what is necessary regarding PKK/Kongra-Gel in the possible shortest time. Noting that Turkey and Iran should enhance their economic cooperation, Aref said that a free trade zone could easily be established among Iran, Turkey and Pakistan. Aref proposed that Syria and Lebanon could also be included in this trade zone in the future. Iranian Foreign Minister Kharazi expressed pleasure with positive developments in bilateral relations and said, ``former misunderstandings between two countries had been eliminated.`` Kharazi added that Iran was aware of problems of TRNC people, and noted that TRNC parliamentary delegation would visit Tehran soon. He said that the problems in Iraq was the result of wrong policies of the occupying powers Before leaving for Tehran on 27th July Erdogan said that economic cooperation would also be high on the agenda and noted that the current bilateral trade volume of 2.5 billion dollars should be doubled in the mid-term. He added, "There has been improvement both in our political and economic relations with Iran in the past several years. We will explore ways and opportunities of further improving our cooperation in all fields." A group of about 130 businessmen traveled with the Turkish prime minister on his trip. The Iranian media press which gave extensive coverage to the visit noted the timing of the visit (situation in Iraq) and  appreciated the joint willpower to improve the relationships between the two countries in spite of American pressure.( It was said that Erdogan’s visit was postponed under US pressure ). The two sides were using economic cooperation to improve overall relations. Bilateral trade between the two countries increased 91 percent to 2.4 billion U.S. dollars in 2003. Turkish exports to Iran rose by 45 percent in the first half of 2004. The aim is to set up lasting and comprehensive economic relations and to increase trade volume between Turkey and Iran up to 10 billion U.S. dollars in medium term. Turkey stopped imports of gas complaining of poor quality and high price. There is a dispute over the contract to operate a Tehran airport by a Turkish-led consortium. Both problems were discussed but decisions could not be finalized. An other major issue was about a contract to Turkcell, Turkey`s biggest mobile phone operator, to set up Iran`s first private mobile telephone network which could involve investment of up to $ 3 billion in the project. But because of strategic considerations and opposition from conservative circles in Iran, a decision could not be taken .Other areas identified for  cooperation were  transportation, construction, textile and information technology as among appropriate fields for investment. View from Tehran: Earlier Iranian government spokesman Abdollah Ramezanzadeh welcomed Erdogan’s visit and said that Iran and Turkey would discuss further expansion of economic, regional, and international cooperation "We have a number of major economic projects at hand with Turkey which we hope will be concluded during the Turkish prime minister’s upcoming visit to Tehran. These projects include transit of gas as well as linkage of cellular phone networks," he added. According to Iranian media, which also welcomed Erdogan’s visit, many efforts were made “ to disseminate a pessimistic view about the possibility of the expansion of Iran-Turkey cooperation and to discourage the Turkish prime minister from visiting Tehran. The Zionist lobby has also been making serious efforts to discourage Erdogan from visiting Iran. According to informed sources, U.S. officials have pledged to provide additional assistance and loans to the Turkish government on the condition that Turkey adopts an Iran policy favorable to U.S. interests. “The Iraq issue is one of the two sides’ most important common concerns and has led to a convergence of interests. Turkey has seriously objected to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s repressive policy toward the Palestinians, and Israel’s policy toward the Kurds is another concern for the Turks. The Zionist regime’s suspicious activities in northern Iraq, which seem to be attempts to promote the establishment of an independent Kurdish government in the region, have raised concerns throughout the region, including the Arab world. Relations between Turkey and Israel have cooled considerably due to these developments. “The deep cultural, social, and religious affinities shared by the two neighboring nations have inspired their officials to make efforts to boost commercial cooperation. The two sides are discussing ways to expand bilateral ties and are attempting to strengthen their political, security, cultural, and economic relations.” In an interview with Turkey's NTV on 21 July, Iran's ambassador to Turkey Firuz Dolatabadi, said that Israel's "definite aim is to form a Kurdish state in northern Iraq."  (This comes after a warning about Israel's "separatist" activities in Iraq by Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi on 20 July) Dolatabadi added that Israel has pursued this plan for 20 years, with help from US and British intelligence services, and "their agents are buying property and training Kurds in northern Iraq." The "Kurds receiving Israeli training" were mostly from among "Kurds scattered around northern Iraq," not the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan or the Kurdish Democratic Party, Iraq's principal Kurdish groups, "because those groups know that these measures serve [Israeli and U.S.] interests...and do not benefit [Kurds]," Those groups have refused to cooperate with the Israelis, Dolatabadi added . He also said Iran will pursue its security cooperation with Turkey and block entry into Iran by members of Kongra-Gel, the former Kurdistan Workers Party  History of Iran-Turkey relations   The tangled relationship between the rulers and people of Asia minor ( Turkey ) and Persia( Iran ) is as old as history, beginning from the days when modern-day western Turkey formed the outpost of the Persian Empire.  There was continuous rivalry between the Roman /Byzantine empire based in Anatolia with its capital at Constantinople and Sasanian empire of  Persia. Both fought for the control of Mesopotamia, now known as Iraq. But in 7th century Muslim Arabs from the sands of Arabia broke through and converted Persia to Islam. Later the torch was taken by Seljuks and Ottomans who Turkified and Islamised Asia minor and beyond into Europe.  The Sunni Ottomans and the Shia Safavids of Persia fought for the control of Iraq, but the Ottomans finally prevailed. However the Persians succeeded in converting many Turks to Shia sect, now known as Alevis.  In modern times, Turkey's founder Kemal Ataturk and Iran’s ruler Reza Shah shared a taste for autocratic methods of westrnisation and modernisation.  After the Second World War, to protect themselves against the Soviet Union, both Turkey and Iran joined the U.S.-led military alliances, like short lived Baghdad pact with Pakistan (that included Britain with the United States as an observer), the Central Treaty Organization, and an economic agreement, the Regional Cooperation for Development. Iran withdrew from both agreements after the 1979 Khomeini Revolution.  Nevertheless, Iran’s economic ties with Turkey have expanded significantly. Both countries have become important trade partners with Turkey becoming the major transit route for goods traveling by truck and rail between Europe and Iran. The oil wealth made Iran rich but brought other problems and saw the end of the Pehlavi dynasty and incoming of Islamic revolution in 1979. It made secular Turkey very apprehensive but Iran was engaged by Iraq helped by neighbouring Sunni Gulf states and western powers. During the Iran and Iraq war in 1980s, while almost land locked Iraq was Turkey's the 2nd largest trading partner, Iran was not far behind. Turkey adopted more or less a neutral line.  But soon the rivalry between Turkey and Iran emerged again but this time in Central Asia.  Afraid of Iran and its fundamentalist brand of Islam, USA supported Turkey and even Russia preferred Turkey to Iran in central Asia. But it is the Wahabi brand of Islam worrying the central Asian rulers.   While the borders between the two countries have been more or less stable since the last four centuries, from time to time the two have tried to destabilise the other side.  In fact the Shia Alevi population created by Iran’s Safavids which caused many problems for Sunni Ottoman Sultans.  The Alevis suffered heavily at the Ottoman hands. Shia Alevis now form nearly 15 percent of the Turkish population. The Sunni dominated police establishment regularly persecute the Alevis, ironically perhaps the original Turcoman who helped conquer Anatolia.  On the other hand nearly 20 percent population of Iran in East and North East is of Turkic origin and speak Azerbaijani which is very close to the Turkish language, although they are Shias by tradition.  The supreme Iranian spiritual leader Ali Khameini is an Azeri Turk and by tradition Azeri Turks become the chief of the Iran’s armed forces.  Iran has frequently accused Turkey of harbouring opposition groups such as Mujaheddin-e Khalq (MKO) among tens of thousands of refugees escaping Islamic Iran and later the Iran-Iraq war. Turkey has accused Iran of series of assassinations of secular Turkish intellectuals and harboring PKK rebels in Iran. When Turkey created “Hizbollah” ( no connection with the Lebanese one ) to counter and assassinate Marxist PKK leaders in South East Turkey, Iran infiltrated into it. The experiment was quickly given up but some residual impact still survives. US invasion of Iraq Iran strongly opposed the proposal of sending Turkish troops to Iraq and welcomed Turkish parliament’s rejection of US request to use its territory to open a second front against Iraq. Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi said that Turkey should send its troops to Iraq only if requested by the Iraqi people or under U.N. control. Iran considered that sending troops to Iraq would not contribute to stability and tranquility in Iraq. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul visited Tehran twice in 2003, once when he was prime minister (before Erdogan took over ) prior to the Iraq war and second time for the 30th  meeting of Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). During his first visit, in his meeting with Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, the main agenda item was the crisis in Iraq. The two countries also called for Muslim countries acting together to solve the Iraq crisis peacefully. Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi Kharazi paid a visit to Ankara during the Iraq war and said that they had some common interests in north Iraq and the future of the region after his meeting with Gul. He also expressed concern over the issue of Iraqi Kurds gaining control of oil rich Kirkuk, As a consequence of  possible break up of Iraq with an independent Kurdish state in north Iraq or even autonomy with control over oil resources, Turkey, Iran and Syria are worried about the likely impact on their own Kurdish populations. Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria: The Kurds  are an Iranian related people totaling over 25 million and they straddle mostly the mountainous regions of  Turkey (14 million), Iran (8 million), Iraq (4 million ) and  nearly 1/2 million each in Syria and in Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia. They have been caught up in ethnic upheavals and intermingling of Aryan, Turkic and Semitic races going on since two millennia. Descending from Medes they were first mentioned as the Kurduchoi who harassed Xenephon retreating towards the Black Sea in 401 BC, whereas the Turks started moving into Anatolia only in 11th Century after the Byzantine defeat at Manzikert.  But barring petty dynasties and some principalities in the region, the Kurds, most Sunni Muslims, have failed to carve out a lasting kingdom and Salahaddin remains their greatest medieval hero. They have been kept divided and exploited as pawns by the ruling Persian, Turkish or Arab empires and colonial powers, enjoying autonomy only when the Empires were weak. Sunni Ottomans used them to guard the frontiers against Shia Safavids of Iran. Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria might have adversary relations with each other but when it comes to Kurds they close ranks. But throughout history whenever suppressed the Kurds become outlaws and take to the mountains.  Belonging to Iranian language family, Kurdish is spoken in 5 dialects and many sub-dialects but the divisions among Kurds are reflected not only in the dialects or the countries they inhabit. Differences  among them have persisted throughout history. In North Iraq the Kurds are split among Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)of Jalal Talebani  and Kurdish Democratic Movement (KDM) of Masud Barzani who have been warring with each other since decades. But, even when divided, they  have enjoyed  some semblance of autonomy, first under the British mandate, then the leftist regime of Brig Kassem and even under the kid glove and poisoned sword  treatment of Saddam Hussein, With an almost free run during Iran-Iraq War and then US led protection after the end of 1991 Gulf War, the idea of a Kurdish identity while suppressed in the unitary Turkish state was kept alive across in Iraq The Iranians have manipulated Iraqi Kurds as had the Russians the Iranian Kurds during the 2nd World War encouraging them to declare the Mahabad Republic, which after the Russian with drawal in 1946 was annihilated. Iran gave shelter and arms to Iraqi Kurds and PKK. So after the 1979 Khomeini revolution the Iraqis supported Iranian Kurds. But unlike Iraq, Iran and elsewhere, the Kurds in Turkey are the most well integrated with other citizens. Unfortunately they were subjected to growing harassment and discriminations since the Kurdish insurgency began, although they enjoy equal legal rights .Ataturk’s right hand man Ismet Pasha, later President had Kurdish blood as did President Turgut Ozal  and many others. Turkey has problems with its own Kurds, who form 20% of the population. But after five years of comparative peace and quiet in Turkey's southeast, there is now some upsurge in violent rebel activity. The rebellion since 1984 against the Turkish state, led by PKK chief Abdullah Ocalan, cost more than 35,000 lives, including 5,000 soldiers. To control and neutralize the rebellion, thousands of Kurdish villages were bombed, destroyed, abandoned or relocated; millions of Kurds were moved to shanty towns in the south and east or migrated westward. The economy of the region was shattered. With a third of the Turkish army tied up in the southeast, the cost of countering the insurgency at its height amounted to between $6 billion and $8 billion a year. Whenever there has been chaos and instability in north Iraq, as during the Iraq-Iran War in the 1980s or after the 1991 Gulf War, PKK activity picked up in Turkey. The rebellion died down after the arrest and trial of Ocalan in 1999, when a ceasefire was declared by the PKK. After a Turkish court commuted to life imprisonment the death sentence passed on Ocalan in 2002 and parliament granted rights for the use of the Kurdish language, some of the root causes of the Kurdish rebellion were removed. TV broadcasts in Kurdish have already begun. Until the mid-1980s, even the use of the word Kurd was taboo and could lead to imprisonment. The PKK shifted most of its 4,000 cadres to northern Iraq. But they refused to lay down arms as required under a new Turkish "repentance law" as it provided only partial immunity. Many remained ensconced along the border between Iraq and Iran. The United States' priority to disarm PKK cadres, despite promises to Turkey, has not been very high. It has its arms full of troubles in Sunni and Shiite Iraq. In fact, the US wants to reward Iraqi Kurds, who have remained loyal and peaceful. But Iraqi Kurds have been ambivalent toward the PKK, helping them at times. While it was known, but an article in New Yorker magazine by veteran US journalist Seymour Hersh that Israel provided training to peshmarga militias in northern Iraq and ran covert operations in neighboring countries brought out the simmering differences between Turkey and Israel. The media reports were denied by both Israel and the Kurdish leadership in northern Iraq. But Turkey is not convinced. Israel's case was not helped by other reports that they were infiltrating agents into Iran's clandestine nuclear-weapons program for information for possible preemptive strikes by the Israeli air force, believing that Tehran is about a year away from a breakthrough in that program. Israel would prefer a weak and decentralized Iraq, if not a divided one. According to Beirut's Daily Star of July 17, "It appears that Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, one of Erdogan's closest confidants, was behind the leak on Israeli interference in Kurdistan, to demonstrate Ankara's deepening anxiety that Kurdish aspirations of independence will be fueled by Israeli interference. Indeed, the US debacle in Iraq is driving neighbors Turkey, Syria and Iran into each other's arms as all fear chaos in Iraq in the coming months." It added: "Erdogan's government has embarked upon a high-profile diplomatic effort to bolster relations with the Arab and Muslim world, which were blighted by Israel's 1996 military agreements with Turkey. Ankara has settled its disputes with Syria and is seeking to normalize its often fraught relations with Iran." Turkey temporarily withdrew its ambassador and consul general from Israel. Relations took a turn for the worse when the Israeli airline El Al had to suspend for two weeks six weekly flights to Turkey from June 24 in a row over security at Istanbul airport. Conclusions A regional analyst Husnu Mahalli said "The two countries will try to explore if relations can acquire a strategic dimension." Specific issues concerning could be then resolved almost automatically if  Erdogan and Muhammad Khatami could establish trust and understanding as between Ankara and Damascus during Bashar Assad's January visit to Turkey. In fact Syrian Prime Minister Naji al- Otri was warmly received 2 weeks ago by Erdogan  who declined to meet with Israeli deputy prime minister Ehud Olmert on a mending mission. As recently as 1999 Turkey had threatened to invade Syria unless it expelled Ocalan, which the latter did.  According to former Turkish Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Ozdem Sanberk, Turkey's predicament stems from the fact that it has to maintain a delicate balance between its desire to see a stable Middle East and its commitment to the Euro-Atlantic agenda. Unlike Syria, Turkey's engagement in Euro-Atlantic organizations -- in particular its alliance with the United States, constitute limits of cooperation with Iran. "Iran's foreign policy is formulated on a long-term basis," Sanberk said. "One or two visits will not change the basic parameters of this policy because Iran, with its rich sources and deep, well-established culture, is quite a self-confident country which does not feel obliged to cooperate with others at the cost of compromising on its basic foreign policy principles." Relations between Turkey and Israel long considered almost strategic allies against hostile Arab states have become deeply strained as a result of recent events. Prime Minister Erdogan has repeatedly referred to Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank as "state terrorism," an assessment that is now shared by 82 percent of the Turkish population, according to a recent poll. While the shifts in Turkish public opinion toward both the Unit! ed States and Israel have played havoc with political relationships, t hey have not yet seriously damaged the core strategic relationships, because the military in Turkey retains considerable autonomy, but it very easily could change .The Turkish military has made clear its opposition to autonomy to north Iraq.  In March 2003 , while the military was keen to join US invasion of Iraq, in view of strong public feelings against it, it kept quiet. Another survey released last week showed that 75 percent of Turks wanted "no" relationship with Israel. To some extent both USA and Europe Union have not appreciated the impact of the sweeping electoral victory that brought the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power in end 2002. It has spurred distrust in Ankara about U.S. aims in the region. "People here ( in USA)  didn't fully appreciate how big a difference the AKP is in worldview," according to Mark Parris, a former US ambassador to Ankara, who stressed that Erdogan has consulted more closely with Arab governments than previous Turkish leaders and, in a major coup, Turkey last month saw its candidate, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, elected secretary general of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). Unlike earlier secular governments, Erdogan government takes OIC more seriously.  The other major factor in the growing alienation is rising expectation that Turkey will be given a certain date for joining the European Union (EU) at its summit meeting in December according to Geoffrey Kemp, a US Middle East expert who directs the Nixon Center's regional strategic programs. "Becoming part of Europe is the overriding strategic objective," according to Parris. On issues regarding the Middle East, Israel and Iran, the views of both religious and secular Turks "are now much closer to mainstream European perceptions than to mainstream American positions," he added. Erdogan made a fruitful visit to France. Turkey might buy Airbus for its airlines and even some arms. To mollify Iraqi Kurds USA has adamantly opposed any direct Turkish presence in Iraq, in contrast to 1990s when Ankara maintained a virtual continuous presence in the northern part of the country, close to its border. Despite repeated urgings by Turkey, U.S. occupation forces did not disarm the guerrillas, nor  asked Iraqi Kurds to do so, even though PKK is listed by the State Department as a "terrorist" organization. "If you make a discrimination among terrorist groups, then the war against terrorism will never work,” said a Turkish diplomat. So say the Indians too to USA, which has done pretty little to dismantle militant outfits in Pakistan. They are not only active in India but in Iraq too. The similarity of the television images of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories and the U.S. Occupation in Iraq – have also resulted in a dramatic rise in anti-Israeli and anti-US sentiment in Turkey. These concerns, and the bitter taste left by U.S. arm twisting of the Turkish government to make its parliament approve the use of its territory to launch an invasion of Iraq from the north, the occupation and the widespread publicity about abuses by U.S. soldiers against Iraqi detainees, has left Turks angry and disgusted and brought them closer to their Arab neighbors. Of all its neighbours Turkey traditionally had the best relations with Iraq. Israeli and Turkish armed forces might still carry out joint exercises and U.S. forces still use Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey  as a logistic base to supply the occupation in Iraq, but how long their fundamental strategic interests can withstand  growing Turkish anger and distrust remains uncertain. It will be difficult to reverse current negative trends as long as Sharon and Bush remain in power, Even their successors would find it difficult to mend matters given Turkey's strategic reorientation toward Europe and the degree of alienation that has grown. Many people are concerned that, regardless of who wins the [U.S.] elections [in November], the United States does not have any idea or necessary expertise or guts to sacrifice in human resources . But it might be foolish enough to get involved militarily in Syria and Iran which would further destabilize the region. It appears that neoconservatives like Richard Perle , Douglas Feith and others, many close to Israel’s Likud party, who formulated and implemented the US policy to invade Iraq thought that the ouster of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad and the installation of a pro-U.S. government there, was the key to decisively transform the balance of power in the region, where secular, relatively democratic states, specifically Israel, Turkey and a new Iraq backed up by Washington would call the tune. (Patently an absurd idea ab initio). "It hasn't turned out to be that way," noted Kemp, who said that, if anything, the war has created unprecedented instability and uncertainty throughout the region in ways that could well bring about a major realignment in the area, but not of the kind desired by them. (K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan in 1992-96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador to Jordan (during the 1990-91 Gulf war), Romania and Senegal.  He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies.  The views expressed here are his own.- Email-Gajendrak@hotmail.com)
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