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Paper no. 1088
15-08-2004
MALDIVES UNREST: SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
By B.RamanIslam, as practised in the Maldives, has till now been free of the influence of the pan-Islamist ideas of the jihadi extremist organisations of either Pakistan or of South-East Asia. President Abdul Gayyoom, a product of the Al Azhar University of Egypt, has managed to keep the local society unaffected by the jihadi virus from abroad.
2.The present confrontation between the Gayyoom Government and the pro-democracy elements spearheaded by the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which has assumed increasing virulence for over a year now with periodic outbursts of violence, has been largely focussed on the theme authoritarianism vs democracy. The MDP and its supporters have been calling for a genuine multi-party democracy with an executive accountable to the law and guaranteed fundamental freedoms. They also feel that Gayyoom, who has undoubtedly done a lot for the country in the past by opening up large parts of it to the outside world and developing it into a tourists' paradise, has outlived his political utility and has become increasingly authoritarian and intolerant of criticism and opposition.
3. Islamic elements---individuals and organisations such as the Islamic Society of Maldives--- have been supporting the democracy movement and have avoided pan-Islamist ideas emanating from abroad such as the need for an Islamic Caliphate. They do not project Western style liberal democracy as anti-Islam as the jihadi organisations in Pakistan do.
4. However, what should be of concern to the outside world in general and India in particular is that both sides in the confrontation have increasingly been using religious arguments against each other. For example, in its psywar campaign to discredit the democracy movement, which has been in receipt of support from Maldivian and non-Maldivian elements in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and the UK, the Government has been projecting the MDP's campaign as an anti-Islam conspiracy orchestrated by the Christian elements abroad, spearheaded by elements in the UK, similar to the alleged Christian conspiracy in East Timor, allegedly spearheaded by elements in Australia.
5.The allusion to Christian elements in the UK apparently refers to the support extended to the movement by the Amnesty International and some members of the British Parliament. The objective of this alleged Christian conspiracy is projected as the christianisation of the local Islamic society.
6. In its efforts to counter the influence of the Maldivian elements reportedly based in Malaysia, who have been managing the web war against Gayyoom, the Government has been projecting them as influenced and helped by Al Qaeda. Some democracy activists have alleged that in order to stop any support for the activists from the West, the Government has been projecting the group, which has been running the on-line journal called "Sandhaanu - Alternative Solution to Media Suppression in the Maldives" as a clandestine Al Qaeda cell, which has been trained by Al Qaeda in the exploitation of the Internet for its campaign against the Government.
7.While the democracy activists have refrained from using religious arguments in their psywar campaign against the Government, the religious elements supporting them have been projecting the Gayyoom Government as anti-Islam and its rule and laws as not in accordance with the Sharia. In a statement circulated in July, 2004, Abu Rayyan of the Islamic Society of Maldives said: " Gayyoom's laws were made contrary to the Holy Koran and the tradition of Muhammad the holy prophet. The Dhivehi nation's constitution states that it cannot contradict Islamic Sharia. Gayyoom's sacrilegious acts indicate he wants Maldivians to become heretics and to remove Islam from this land.The laws of Gayyoom prohibit the most important responsibility that divine law imposes on human beings, the call to do good and not to do harm. Gayyoom has taken the position of a pharaoh and placed his laws above Allah's commands. He has bought the loyalties of some of the religious scholars with high offices in his government, positions in the discredited Supreme Council of Islamic Affairs and by providing other financial benefits. Meanwhile, those clerics who do not obey Gayyoom's orders are arrested and tortured. " It also appealed to the officers of the National Security Service (NSS) to disobey the orders of Gayyoom
8. The case of Ibrahim Fareed, a Qatar-trained, Government-licensed preacher, who is projected by the democracy movement activists as a "conservative Islamic reformist", illustrates the use of the religious factor by the Government in its attempt to prevent external support to the movement. He has been one of the religious leaders, who has been supporting the democracy movement in his individual capacity and has allegedly been delivering anti-Gayyoom speeches to religious congregations.
9. He was arrested by the National Security Service (NSS) on June 8, 2002,on a charge of creating social disharmony through his radical sermons during religious congregations. He was initially held inside a small cell in Male' for a month and then in solitary confinement at the Dhoonidhoo prison for one year. In October 2003, he was placed under house arrest in Male and then released in April 2004. After his release, he started participating in the public meetings and protest rallies of the democracy movement and supporting their demand for a multi-party democracy.
10. Following this, he was arrested again in May,2004.In a statement issued on May 28,2004, the Maldives' Ministry of Information accused him of "plots to carry out numerous terrorist activities including blowing up places of entertainment, kidnapping senior Government officials, sabotaging the tourism industry and instigating calls for a violent jihad." However, when he was produced before a local court on August 12, 2004, there was no reference to his being a jihadi terrorist. He was charged with "attempting to carry out an act against the state and speaking to people in a way that could create religious thoughts and making religious speeches to people in a way that could have undermined the rights of some people in the Maldivian society".
11. On coming to know of his production in the court by the NSS, the pro-democracy activists demonstrated outside the court, demanding his release. According to some reports, the Government was forced to release him in order to pacify the protesters. It is not known whether he has been re-arrested after the proclamation of the Emergency on the evening of August 13, 2004.
12. While there is so far no evidence of any radicalisation of the Maldivian youth in a direction favourable to pan-Islamist organisations such as Al Qaeda, the Jemaah Islamiah of S.E.Asia and the various jihadi terrorist organisations of Pakistan, this is a possibility which should be of concern to India. The report of the US National Commission, which had enquired into the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US, has stated as follows while talking of the revelations made by Khalid Sheikh Muhammad (KSM), the supposed masterbrain of the 9/11 terrorist strikes, during interrogation by the US authorities: "Similarly, KSM's proposals to Atef (My comment: Muhammad Atef, who used to be the operational chief of Al Qaeda) around this same time (My comment: 2000-2001) for attacks in Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Maldives were never executed, although Hambali's Jemaah Islamiah operatives did some casing of possible targets."
13. The report does not say whether the JI did some casing in the Maldives too. There was an unconfirmed report that during his stay in a Karachi madrasa before his arrest and deportation to Indonesia, Hambali's brother had visited the Maldives, but it is not known whether he went there as a tourist or for casing.
14.The Maldives, which receives every year a large number of tourists from West Europe (particularly Italy and France), Japan and elsewhere, provides a tempting soft target for a Bali-type terrorist strike as well as for acts of maritime terrorism such as hostage-taking. Normally, a terrorist group considers a foreign territory for a possible terrorist strike only if it has some local support. The fact that KSM suggested the Maldives for a possible future operation indicates the likelihood of a sleeper cell there, either in the local society or in the NSS itself, some of whose officers had gone to Pakistan for training in the past.
15.It is apparent that the democracy movement has at its disposal considerable funds. It has been spending a lot of money on its psywar campaign against the Government. A front organisation calling itself the "Friends of Maldives", which is believed to be UK-based, has announced plans for test radio broadcasts to the Maldives from August 18,2004, under the name "Minivan Radio, the Free Radio of the Maldives" It has stated that if the tests are successful, it would start regular broadcasts from 2100 to 2200 hrs (Male’ time) every day.
16. It is believed that the flow of money has been mainly from sources in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and the UK. The identities of these sources are not known.
17. The developing situation in the Maldives could have implications for India's national security and needs to be closely monitored.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Distinguished Fellow and Convenor, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Chennai Chapter. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com )
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