Paper no. 1097	24. 08. 2004
INDIA’S DIFFICULT CHOICES & CLEAR ANSWERS  Guest Column-by Gaurang Bhatt  The first fundamental reality is that America’s strategy of controlling the Middle East and its oil resources is heading for a disastrous failure. The predictions are that in three years or less the tottering corrupt monarchies of Saudi Arabia and its mini-mimics like Kuwait, Jordan and the Gulf States will collapse. The brutal and unjust Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and its total support by America, combined with the only tolerated opposition being mosque based radical Islamism, will  result in an Islamist victory which may not only  encompass the Middle East but also the Trans-Caucasus, Southeast and Central Asia. An economically weak America with overwhelming military strength will be tied down in combating these insurgencies and  terrorism to the benefit of a more pragmatic Europe and East Asia. This is why Japan is proposing a Japan - China - India axis and Russia is proposing a Russia- China - India axis to counterbalance the current unipolar hegemony of the US. CHINA--It would be geographically convenient to team up with China, a rising economic and military power but there are many reasons why it is destined for failure. First there is the historical fact of the drubbing China gave India in the 1962 war and still occupies Indian terrain, as well as that ceded by Pakistan with doubtful validity. It is important to be fair and realize that Imperial Britain and Russia under the Czars deprived China of land from its ancient historic boundaries. The present thieving pseudo-communist leadership has used rabid jingoistic chauvinism as a defense to divert the attention of its deprived masses to obfuscate corruption, nepotism and enrichment of  their children and power elite. This is not new and has been the tragic history of China over millennia. Even more importantly, the principle of Chanakya and Machiavelli still hold true that a nation’s immediate contiguous neighbor is unlikely to be an ally unless one embraces the new philosophy of US and Canada or the old Europe of the original EU. Lastly, China’s remarkably successful coercive policies of one child have set it up for an aging population with declining birthrates and a falling to stabilizing population. Its shortsightedness in creating pockets of affluence in the coastal East while perpetuating poverty in its central and western territories is likely to cause serious civil disorder. Historically China has had  many periods of disorder and chaos and has always aimed for order above all else. It does not carry the religious baggage of re-birth which has kept the Indian masses controlled and subjugated, though even that is changing. Thus a dependable alignment with China seems less feasible or desirable. JAPAN--- Its vicious antagonism after India went nuclear is a clear indication of its policies being a mere reflection of its American masters. Japan deserves credit for its Meiji restoration and advancement that made it strong enough to defeat Russia in the war of 1905. It was hell bent on aping the colonial attitudes of the West and because of its relatively weak status, made the ethical compromise of  only subjugating Asians, not to compete or clash with  the Europeans who sat at a table and carved out  Africa. Its racist xenophobia, which is its inherent  national character even now, does not allow it to accept immigrants to continue its economic growth,  destined to stall due to an aging and decreasing  population, promised retirement benefits and burgeoning national debt due to wasteful deficit spending. Part of this is due to its huge trade surpluses and large foreign reserve holdings and its commitments to its own population, social safety nets and a harmonious society. Unfortunately, a generalization of national character is hard and like all generalizations often false, like this one too! From India’s point of view Japan is a country with a shrinking population, little resources but immense capital and outstanding technology. Much of the capital will be needed to fund its national pensions, so the only attraction is technology. When you take into consideration that its national hubris vacillated rapidly from imperialist hegemony to abject subservience, after it was beaten by America and it still continues to brown nose its policies to bow to its master. Japan is not likely to be a useful ally, but it should be stringed along until it decides a clear policy and escapes from its servitude. EUROPE--- There is an emotional, intellectual and  policy rebellion against American stupidity. Every advantage of this fortuitous development should be  taken. Britain with its nostalgic grandeur and delusions of a lost Empire has currently hitched is wagon to America by Blair becoming Bush’s lapdog. It will always have a superiority complex over the idiotic natives who allowed less than 200,000 Sahibs to rule over 350 million natives because of the likes of Amichand and the sepoys, who sold their allegiance to the highest bidder. It is thus futile for India to make extra efforts to curry favor with Britain and concentrate on developing a military relationship with independent France and an economic relationship with industrial Germany, while throwing a few choice bones to UK like buying jet trainers, just so that advanced Britain does not tilt in Pakistan’s favor, by arming it. France with its arrogant history from the time of its revolution and democratic philosophies has been a leader in culture and literature but unable to translate its advantages to become a hegemon or world leader and is exquisitely sensitive to its non-primum inter pares status. Thus allying with it, has advantages for India to exploit its psyche for mutual benefit. Once again Chanakya’s points of non-interfering or non- competing spheres of influence is still a valid philosophy of international relations.   USA--- The 800 pound gorilla is the most difficult dilemma. Its paranoid fear of terrorism, its desperate need to control the oil resources of Europe and Japan, to prevent exposing its waning economic might has pushed it into developing devastating military might to preserve its hegemony and profligate affluent lifestyle. As in the case of the Roman Empire, which was challenged by the Barbarian Germans, who lived in much less affluence and fulfilled Cardinal Neumann’s definition of genius as an infinite capacity to bear pain, the affluence and inability to tolerate casualties did the Romans in. The difference is the innovative genius of America and its disproportionate investments into military capabilities. It is on the verge of its inflicting instant space warfare, without risking its manpower, an unacceptable sacrifice, and yet devastating rebellious populations or countries at  minimal cost. Unfortunately this newest terror weapon does not insulate America from destruction by the greed of its elites, who finance its corrupt leaders and the suborned media acting as cheerleaders to the demise of this great nation. The impoverishment of large segments of its populace, slow to understand the crooked agenda of leaders who cloak their ideas under the guise of religion, culture and race, cannot fool all people at all times for eternity. Americans are bigoted from the genes of their British forebears, but much less secure in their psyche. They have a pathological need to be liked and even admired because they have been fed the false propaganda, that they are the best and greatest. Most of them are ignorant or uneducated, so they do not realize that the genius Madison aimed for, structured, and succeeded in creating a rule of the privileged minority. His greatest worry was the tyranny of the ignorant masses, that formed the majority and he enshrined into the Constitution and the Federalist agenda, a perpetual rule by the elite. He was smart enough to realize the natural resultant corruption and vitiation of the plan, and even worry about it, but his supercilious dislike of the commoners and his shaky faith in the goodness of the smart and thinking leaders enlarged his blind spot enough to totally obscure and ignore a real vision of the future, for which the nation is paying a sorry, unacceptable and destroying price. India has no choice but to avoid antagonizing America despite its leanings toward Pakistan, in the remote hope that what Churchill said is true. His prophecy is ultimately America does the right thing, after it has exhausted all other options. In total honesty, it is ridiculous to have such faith, but the world and India have no choice. There is a  prevalent  view  even amongst those who do not wish America ill, that perhaps the fight with radical, bigoted and fanatic Islam will sober America and destroy the Islamic threats to world peace and harmony, thus destroying an evil and trimming the sails of the arrogant to a sobering vision of reality.   RUSSIA--- While the foolishness and greed of Yeltsin lead to some estrangement between Russia and India, Putin is a very smart man and a nationalist. Russian  technology is inferior and demographically it has a shrinking population, but its landmass, enormous natural resources and energy sufficiency with the capability of exporting oil and natural gas, makes it an important player on the world stage. Its worry about Islamic threats in its vicinity and the ability to match America’s  nuclear might makes it a critical nation that India cannot ignore and must have good relations with. Its current shortage of finances makes it a critical partner for India to invest its newly acquired foreign exchange reserves in co-operative joint ventures in the development of missiles, civilian and military nuclear applications. There is a long history of friendship and co-operation, which it would be foolhardy to jettison. It is vitally important for India to develop energy self-sufficiency and Russia is capable of helping India build 1000 to 2000 megawatt reactors for which we have no indigenous expertise. These could also be used for desalinating water plants, thus fulfilling the unrealized promise of India’s previous corrupt and inept governments of providing electricity and potable water to its deprived rural population.  ISRAEL-- There is no doubt that some of Israel’s current policies are self-defeating and likely to create long-term problems. There are ethical dilemmas about aligning with Israel. What is even more important is, that resurgent Islamic fanaticism is one of the greatest threats to us and the world. Our past policies of supporting the Palestinians, though righteous, have earned us no rewards from the Organization of Islamic Nations. As Lord Palmerston clearly stated, Nations have no permanent friends or enemies, just permanent interests. Israel will always be opposed to the Islamic scourge and this is our biggest worry. Thus in spite of Israel’s faulty and immoral policies, it will always be a reliable ally. In addition it has the technology that we need and an understanding that India was the only country in the world never to have a pogrom against the Jews. This  doesn’t mean that we have to actively endorse all its policies. Even Yuddhishtira, the Dharmaraja, at a critical moment uttered Narova Kunjerova. Furthermore its crucial ability to influence American policies would be an additional benefit that could be utilized to temper America’s intolerance of our independence.  SOUTH KOREA--- This is a key nation whose co-operation we must actively solicit. It has a history of resentment of the colonial Japanese occupation and is now actively disenchanted by America’s stupidity. It is rebelling against its exploitation much more than Japan has even thought, analyzed or dreamt. Under the protection of an American umbrella, it has advanced from a poor country with the same per capita income as a third world nation, to the middle level. We should explore every avenue of co-operation with it from the manufacture of appliances to chips and ships. It is crying out for independence and relationships beyond the American hegemony and it can certainly be a good ally and help, because there are no conflicting economic or geo-political interests.  SOUTHEAST ASIA--- Singapore even though it is predominantly Chinese is a success story of capitalism. It has a significant Indian minority and a worry about being swamped by its neighbors and their Islamic agendas. It was a stupid mistake of Nehru, when he rejected Lee’s help in building Singaporean armed forces  which Israel did . Similarly co-operation with Malaysia, which has successfully curtailed Islamic extremism, is a good idea, though not a front burner issue. Better trade and relations with Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and even more so with powerful Vietnam capable of resisting China, all who have some Indian cultural heritage, is a good idea. Indonesia is a prospect but less so with its fissiparous tendencies and greater Islamic extremism.  IRAN---Finally this brings me to the new dominant power in the Gulf and an energy resource rich country. Iran has been a great power of the ancient world and has historical and political ambitions. Its radical Shiite agenda has been cut to size by its devastation in the war with Iraq. It is always difficult for India to put any faith in relations with an Islamic country. There are however important geographic, political and strategic interests. First Iran is Shiite and thus an enemy of Wahabbi Sunni Saudi Arabia. Secondly it is alienated from the Taliban leaning Afghanistan and the atrocities against the Shias in Pakistan. Finally it has enormous energy resources, ambition dictated by history and a desperate need for allies, particularly in view of its greater power ambitions and  desire for nuclear weapons, likely to lead to UN sanctions, pre-emptive attacks and neglectful isolation. Despite its imposed and acquired Islamic character, there is the beginning of disillusion of the population due to economic failure and the rebellion of the young against stringent religious edicts, which serve no purpose. To side with Iran against America would be a disaster, but just as EU and Japan are doing, to tolerate and continue trade with it, without blackballing or praising it is a sensible attitude, considering that the oil resources of Sunni states are sooner if not later, likely to fall into the hands of virulent Islamic fanatics without rhyme or reason. Furthermore when Iran is subjected to a pre-emptive strike against its nuclear installations by Israel or America, or ostracized by UN sanctions, its only bet  to seek trade and technology would be India, the lesser choice. From India’s point of view it would still be a reliable source of energy.  The thesis of this article is that due to foolishly misguided misadventures of American Neo-cons, radical Islamism is likely to be the most prominent and pervasive threat to world peace and harmony. India with a prominent minority of dissatisfied Muslims is subject to great danger. This article in no way intends discrimination against or oppression of Indian Muslims and quite to the contrary recommends inclusion and betterment of Indian Muslims, while still being relentlessly opposed to the concept of Pakistan, which has proved to be a travesty and a dismal failure even for Muslims, and a source for Indian Muslims' lack of belonging and alienation, for which the Hindu majority is partly responsible, though to a lesser extent then in their oppression and marginalization of the Dalits.   (The author is a retired neurophysician and an occasional writer. The views expressed are his own. Email-  gpbhatt1@yahoo.com  .)
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