Paper no. 1170	22. 11. 2004
SOUTH ASIA’S CONFLICT GENERATION AND ITS EXTERNAL INPUTS By Dr Subhash Kapila  Introductory Observations:  South Asia today is attempting to claw its way towards some sort of durable peace after half a century of implacable hostility and aggression mounted by Pakistan on its much larger neighbour namely, India. South Asia’s peace has been held to ransom by Pakistan in the pursuit of its ignoble end-aim i.e. the strategic destabilization of India and to offset its military superiority from a wide spectrum of conflict encompassing war, limited war, proxy war, Islamic Jehad and nuclear war blackmail.  While South Asia undertakes agonizingly slow steps towards peace and stability, it is important to recollect and remind both the protagonists that besides Pakistan’s own hostility towards India borne out of historical religious bigotry, there was also the impetus to conflict in South Asia generated by external inputs. But for these external inputs to conflict generation in South Asia, Pakistan would have run out of steam in the pursuit of its over-sized and over-reaching ambition for strategic parity with India.  So while peace is being pursued by Pakistan and India, the record must be set straight in terms of the external inputs to conflict generation in South Asia. This paper attempts to highlight in brief  this aspect, pertaining to United States, China and Saudi Arabia’s role in this ignoble game.  United States and its Role in Conflict Generation in South Asia:  The United States can be charged with the main role of conflict generation in South Asia towards the following end: Pakistan being built as a regional spoiler state to checkmate India’s natural pre-eminence in the region. United States permissiveness for intrusion of China in South Asia’s strategic calculus to play balance-of-power games to serve China’s own strategic ends of checkmating India and to serve US interests towards the same end. The United States towards these ends adopted the following strategies: Infusion of billions of dollars worth advanced weaponry to  Pakistan during the Cold War and post-9/11 too. Build-up of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missile arsenal by China without any intervention by USA even when actionable intelligence was available to USA. Tolerance of Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism and proxy war of the Islamic Jehad variety even in the pre-9/11 period when USA had no strategic requirement of Pakistani assistance in counter-terrorism operations against the Al-Qaeda. The sum total of the all of the above has been that the United States has contributed to conflict-generation in South Asia, both directly and indirectly, as follows: Pakistan indulged in military adventurism against India initiating four wars. Nuclear Pakistan indulges in military brinkmanship against India. Pakistan indulges in state-sponsored terrorism and proxy war against India buoyed in the belief that the United States has been and will continue to be permissive about it. China and its Role in Conflict Generation in South Asia:  China is the second most intrusive power in South Asia and reaps the benefits of a convergence of interests in South Asia with the United States and Pakistan.   While the United States record in conflict generation in South Asia has been episodic, China on the other hand has been consistent ever since 1962 to ensure that Pakistan is given the military, wherewithal to challenge India and keep it confined with the limits of South Asia.  China’s military build-up of Pakistan has taken the following forms: The military backbone of Pakistani armed forces is predominantly Chinese. Pakistan’s considerable indigenous infrastructure for indigenous defence production is totally Chinese. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missile arsenal are totally Chinese in origin, direct or indirect, including the Chinese origin North Korean, IRBMs. Military weapons and equipment used in Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism and proxy war against India are predominantly Chinese in origin. All of the above has contributed to conflict generation in South Asia in the same manner and form that American external inputs have done.  If South Asia today is a nuclear flash point as made out by Western analysts the culpability is solely that of China.  Saudi Arabia’s Role in External Conflict Generation in South Asia: Saudi Arabia’s role in terms of external inputs in conflict generation in South Asia has largely gone unnoticed and unanalyzed. Also its external inputs to Pakistan have taken surreptitious forms, which are more harder to discern.  Saudi Arabia may not have given direct military hardware to Pakistan, but it has provided billions of dollars to subsidized Pakistani purchases of military equipment form other sources. Saudi Arabia’s other forms of subtle assistance facilitating Pakistan’s military adventurism against India and South Asian instability can be counted as under: Large quantities of free oil every month, freeing million of dollars of Pakistani finances to military jingoism. Large infusion of financial resources to Pakistan’s madrassas in thousands – nursery of Pakistani Islamic Jehad and terrorism. Subsidizing Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program in return to Saudi access to Pakistan’s nuclear program, as per many reports in the subject. Subsidizing Pakistan’s terrorism training infrastructure and ISI terrorist operations by a whole host of Islamic fundamentalist terrorist outfits against India. Subsidizing pan-Islamic terrorism from Pakistan, including 9/11 Politico- Military Impact of External Inputs in Conflict Generation in South Asia on India:  From the above resume of external inputs in conflict generation in South Asia by USA, China and Saudi Arabia, the following deductions can be made in terms of politics-military impact on India’s foreign and security policies: The United States is not perceived as a “honest broker” by Indians to be trusted even with a “facilitator's” role in South Asia’s peace processes. Strategic partnership between the United States and India cannot effectively take-off until it closes the tap on its external inputs to Pakistan encouraging Pakistan towards military adventurism against India. China’s political relations and friendship with India cannot fully bloom into effective partnership, until China gives up its external inputs of conflict generation to Pakistan A China-India divisive relationship can only benefit other power. India does not need Saudi Arabia but Saudi Arabia for various reasons needs a friendly and cooperative India. India’s foreign policies are slowly but surely getting out of the rut of being determined by political minority vote banks. Saudi Arabia, as it is is looked upon with distaste by most Americans if not the American establishment. It needs other friends in the region other than Pakistan. Concluding Observations: Peace in South Asia will continue to remain elusive so long as external inputs to conflict generation from USA, China an Saudi Arabia do not cease.  If the above does not cease the major fallout could be India  resorting to an arms race in South Asia which Pakistan could economically ill-afford nor can USA, China and Saudi Arabia subsidise the enormous cost of Pakistan’s matching military build-up.  India’s time has come and no amount of external inputs in conflict generation by USA, China and Saudi Arabia can prevent it. They can impede it, slow it down but beyond that they cannot stop India emerging as a regional power and a  key global power. (The views expressed are those of the author) (The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email drsubhashkapila @yahoo.com)
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