Paper no. 1201	24. 12. 2004
EUROPE UNION SUMMIT: TURKISH DELIGHT TURNS SOUR  by K.Gajendra Singh "Personally, I think our bond with the EU can only be economic. We can't be united politically or culturally because the EU has so many prejudices against us as Muslims" a restaurant owner, on Ankara- Istanbul road, as told to the Guardian.  After a days’ delay caused by haggling including walk out threats by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Brussels summit of the Europe Union (EU) held on 16/17 December finally granted Turkey 3 October, 2005 to start accession negotiations. But in spite of so many onerous conditions, including the threat of suspension of negotiations and possible ban on free movement of Turkish workers to the EU members, there was no final certainty of Turkey reaching its objective of becoming a full member, even after 10 or 15 years. (Read along with EU and Turkey.    http://www.saag.org/papers12/paper1127.html Timothy Garton Ash, director of European studies at Oxford University, had warned that extending Turkey a conditional status would send the wrong signal. ‘‘If [the West] reneges now on 40 years of promises to Turkey, the whole of the moderate Muslim world will say Europe is a Christian club. And that would be a disastrous message for the West to send to the whole of the Islamic world. That’s why I think we have to say yes.’’ After the accord, European leaders in Austria, France, Italy and other countries continued to express their reservations and opposition to Turkey becoming a full member and some called for referendums on the question, a condition which was not imposed on any other candidate. Some want Turkey to accept Armenian “genocide” by the Ottomans at the end of the first world war. Cyprus is threatening to use its newly acquired veto .The British welcomed the accord and so did USA, the latter less enthusiastically than in the past! . Turkey became associate an member of EEC (European Economic Community), as EU was then known in 1963. By not accepting EU’s offer to apply for full membership along with Greece in 1986, which it declined believing that its economy was not resilient enough, Turkey perhaps missed the chance of all times. If after more than a century of reforms, Westernization and modernization during its Ottoman era, later wholesale reforms under Kemal Ataturk and 81 years as a secular republic, is this how the Christian West treats a Muslim country? It has sent a wrong kind of message to the Muslim world and many Arab commentators have said so. But in all these discussions, one overlooks the elephant in the room .The overall deterioration in relations between Islam and Christianity after 11 September 2001 .How would the situation evolve in Iraq and Palestine, and in both of which EU has only a marginal role, and elsewhere too. Also how the relations of European nations would evolve with its Muslim minorities .The problems are exacerbated in the EU nations by right wing Christian leaders for electoral gains as was shown during the run up to the Commissions report in October and the December Summit in Brussels. And they are likely to continue nursing their constituency by reviving old historical memories and Christian-Muslim enmities. Ottoman Turks had ruled for centuries territories which included Hungary, Serbia, Albania, even Ukraine. And twice knocked on the gates of Vienna in 16th century.     A hollow victory On return from Brussels Erdogan told his supporters in Ankara on 18 December ``Turkey has turned the critical corner. Our road is open, you should not have any doubt about it.'' ``From now on, democracy will have a different meaning and human rights and freedoms will be practiced in a more meaningful manner, and the economy will perform better. By this, Turkey will take its rightful place among modern and civilized countries,” added Erdogan.  To counter the charge of a sell out on Cyprus, a deeply emotional issue with the Turks, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul told the crowd ``There is no recognition until the Cyprus issue reaches a lasting solution. We will continue to defend this issue forever.'' It was a kind of a pyrrhic victory for Erdogan. In spite of the best efforts its party could muster barely 4000 Turks to celebrate Erdogan’s  “historic triumph”. Even a European football cup win by Turkey would have collected a larger crowd.  Later Gul said in a television interview on 19 December that the plan for a solution of the Cyprus problem by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan was still valid for Turkey .The Greek Cypriots had rejected the UN plan in a referendum last April while the Turkish Cypriots endorsed it. Turkey occupies one third of the island inhabited by Turkish Cypriots since 1974, when Greek Cypriots declared ENOSIS i.e. union with Greece, and Turkey as a Guarantor power had sent in its troops to protect nearly 20% Turkish Cypriots. Turkey is the only country which recognizes the Turkish Cypriot north administration only. If Turkey recognizes only the Greek Cypriot government then its 35,000 troops become overnight occupation forces.  Now the Turks are disappointed, dismayed, irritated and angry. An aide in the Erdogan entourage described the mood of the delegation in Brussels as one of disappointment. The opposition leader Deniz Baykal in Ankara had called for the talks to be put on ice. Leftist parties and organisations demonstrated against the deal.  “We don’t see anything to celebrate,” Baykal told Erdogan on his return during a Parliament session  “What this will lead us to is not full membership but to being a second-class country.” He claimed that the government had not returned with a victory but rather a defeat. Baykal asserted that the government made a commitment to recognize the Greek Cypriot administration and added  “that the EU states would urge Ankara to make concessions in a number of areas in the months and years to come, adding that the end result would not even be full membership.”  Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the opposition Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which was a major coalition partner in pre 2002 election government added  “The AKP is the biggest misfortune of Turkey.” Bahçeli claimed that in the summit the AKP watched firstly the EU’s, then the AKP’s political profits with the least regard being given to the Turkish nation and Turkey’s destiny. Another opposition True Path Party (DYP) leader Mehmet Agar charged that the government had agreed to the EU demands in Brussels, which it had previously declared unacceptable.  Majority of Turkey’s media is now part of powerful corporate interests .So many Turkish newspapers were ecstatic. ``We succeeded,'' said a headline in Hurriyet of 18 December, while Sabah declared a: ``European Revolution.'' ``Our road ahead is longer and is more difficult than the road we've passed,'' said Tufan Turenc, a columnist in daily Hurriyet. ``But we don't have any other option to reach full membership, because the interest of Turkish society is in joining the European family.'' But many nationalist newspapers were furious, complaining that the terms were too harsh. ``Dishonored,'' said the daily Yeni Cag newspaper on Saturday. For months Turkey was hooked on to EU negotiations and literally anchored to Brussels by TV for the last few days .The day after hangover is still to surface fully. In Turkey’s population of 70 million, of which more than 99% are Muslims, there are around 5 to 10 million Turks who really feel fiercely secular and think European, and who reside mostly in Istanbul and other big cities. But the majority of the Turks are conservative Muslims with out being extremist. Compared to Arabs and Iranians, the nomad Turks were always more catholic and less extreme in their beliefs. In the so called concession on Cyprus by the EU, instead of humiliating Erdogan by making him recognize the Cyprus (South) in Brussels itself, the Turkish government was allowed to state that it was "ready" to sign a protocol expanding Turkey's association accord with Brussels to the 10 new member states, including Cyprus, before next October. It was nothing more than a “ red herring” to bend Turkey on other conditions. In the December 2002 EU Summit, Turkey was promised a date for accession negotiations as soon as it fulfilled the Copenhagen criteria, which it has done. To allay European fears of Turkish workers flooding Europe's labour market, EU retained the right to impose measures including "permanent safeguard" clauses in any accession accord. In the final version of the summit conclusions such safeguards were defined as "clauses which are permanently available as a basis for safeguard measures", putting the accent on their being available permanently rather than applicable permanently. "Those (provisions) were different before, but I can say that they were put into the desired shape as a result of the efforts we made," gloated Erdogan. Without free movement of persons within EU countries Turkey’s membership would remain illusory. Turkey has also not been guaranteed full EU benefits in terms of subsidies for its infrastructure development or agriculture, to again allay the concerns of the Club. Because Turkey is still largely a poor agrarian country with income level far below most current member states is no argument. It would be interesting to compare Turkey’s present day conditions on price purchase parity with some of the poorer countries like Portugal, Ireland or even Greece at the time of entry. And it may be recalled again that in late 1980s, Turkey was asked to apply for full membership. But Greece did and joined the EU. Of course since then another 15 new nations have lined up for membership, majority barely freed from the command economy and still not full market economies. In many of these countries like Bulgaria and Romania, Turks are teaching free trade practices including mafia tricks along with similar groups from Greece and Italy. And the negotiations could be broken off in "case of a serious and persistent breach" of fundamental EU values such as "liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms and the rule of law". This could be done on a recommendation from the EU's Executive Commission or from one-third of member states. The whole EU would then decide the matter, with a qualified majority required to break off the negotiations. In any case many countries have said and would hold referendums on Turkey’s final accession.  And finally to rub it in, the EU stated "the shared objective of the negotiations is accession" by Turkey. But the talks are "an open-ended process, the outcome of which cannot be guaranteed beforehand" i.e. should the negotiations fail, the EU must ensure that Turkey "is fully anchored in the European structures through the strongest possible bond". What ever that might mean! Such a condition was imposed on no other candidate. Yes, an official offer suggested by some of a "privileged partnership" was shot down. It was vehemently rejected by Turkey in advance. Winners and Losers It would appear that the winners are Turkey's ruling Justice and Development party (AKP), whose leadership including Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gul emerged from Islamist parties .The last, the Welfare party was closed legally a few years ago. At the behest of the secular establishment led by the powerful armed forces a coalition government led by Prime Minister Najamettin Erbakan was made to resign in 1997. Gul was minister of state in that government and Erdogan was Welfare’s mayor of Istanbul. After carrying out numerous constitutional amendments over the last many years, specially in the last two years under AKP, to bring Turkey in line with Copenhagen criteria for entry, Turkish military dominant role through the policy making National Security Council(NSC) has been emasculated by making it an advisory body. The EU deal will keep the Armed Forces  reined in. Turkish model has been copied by Pakistan President Gen Pervez Musharraf, who did his schooling in Ankara, where his father was posted as an Attache in Pakistan Embassy. How ever, in early November Deputy Chief of Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug expressed military’s concern about the phrase “ minority ‘ used for Kurds in EU Commission’s report on Turkey. He also reaffirmed Turkish military’s special position in the political set up. In his opinion, the reason why the armed forces were affiliated with the Office of the Prime Minister instead of the Defense Ministry was because of Turkey’s unique geopolitical location. ‘Europe should understand why this is so; every country has its own specific regulations on security matters in line with its national interests,’ he added. Underlining that most EU countries define the mission of their armed forces to ‘protect the country against any and all threats.’He added ‘Therefore, our armed forces will take necessary action if the nation feels threatened.’ After the Accord, Gen Hilmi Ozkok, Chief of General Staff, reiterated that the armed forces would remain vigilant against fundamental forces. Turkish armed forces carried out coup d’etats in 1961 and 1980, forced a government to resign in 1971 through a memorandum by the military members of the NSC and made the Prime Minister to resign in 1997. But the armed forces have always returned to the barracks after cleaning up the mess made by Turkey’s politicians . The armed forces are quite autonomous in their affairs. . Its Chief of Staff Gen. Staff ranks next to the Prime Minister .It cashiers every year officers with Islamic tendencies or connections  Without the guidance and the fear of armed forces, Turkey could have wobbled away from the path of secular democracy. Because of Turkey being almost Jacobin in being a fiercely secular state, some Imams and preachers hope that joining EU would bring more religious freedoms. They think that the army refuses to allow the government to introduce stricter religious observances, more so as the ruling AKP is Islamist party, which would like to ease restriction on hand scarves and veils etc. All mosques are government-owned and imams are civil servants. For Friday prayers the Chief Mufti of Istanbul faxes out the sermon, which must be delivered in identical form across the country. Use of religious symbols for political purposes is banned. Students and bureaucrats are not allowed to wear headscarves in educational institutions or government offices. Court officials may not grow beards. Wives of Erdogan, Gul and other AKP leaders do not attend state receptions as they would like to come with head scarves only. It was fortunate that for the first time in decades the ruling party acquired two-thirds majority in November 2002 elections, but with 35% of votes only. AKP has a unified leadership under its Premier Erdogan, who could take decisions without much pressure .He has tried to make out the EU deal as a great success, hoping to further strengthen himself and his party. If AKP were in the opposition, it might have demurred at making such vital concessions.  Erdogan (and more liberal Gul) has experience only as a successful Mayor of Istanbul before being catapulted into the post of the Prime Minister. He then landed among grizzled, experienced and suave European politicians for negotiations which will have long term structural and strategic consequences for Turkey.  He should have gone by his instinct and left Brussels as reported in the media .He should have called EU’s bluff that it was nothing more than a Christian Club.  In early 1998 when EU had refused to grant Turkey EU candidate status, Turkey was very upset and voted for Islamist, socialist and nationalist, almost fascist parties in the next elections. Fearful of Turkey moving away to East, EU quickly granted Turkey the candidate status. After the first world war, Gen Ismet Inonu, directed by Kemal Ataturk had walked out of the peace negotiations with the victorious powers and got a better deal later on. Certainly Turkey has not played its cards well in Brussels. Even the Swedish Prime Minister remarked that the Turks could have got a better deal.     It is Turkey's Kurds who till two decades ago could not even call themselves Kurds or use their language or cultural identity who have gained very much. They have suffered since the very creation of the Republic.  The Turkey-EU engagement will make sure that Kurdish cultural rights are expanded further. Since 1984 under Abdullah Ocalan leader of the Marxist Kurdish Workers party (PKK), Kurds fought an insurgency in South and South East of Turkey in which over 37, 000 lives have been lost. Since Ocalan’s capture in 1999, there has been  peace but now it has become some what tenuous  .PKK cadre is nesting in north Kurdish Iraq, which has enjoyed autonomy from Baghdad since end 1991 Gulf war under US protection.  The EU deal would allow Europeans to interfere into the rights and grievances of not only Kurds but even the Alevis, who have been persecuted some times, and Lazes and Christians, who will be all be able to come out and embrace their culture and religious practices openly. In some ways the December 2005 could end up like the 1774 Treaty of Kuchuk Kaynarca, which had allowed Russia and Austria to interfere into Christian millets of the Ottoman empire. That had further led to the Capitulations and was one of the reasons for the break up of the empire.  Israel is apparently a loser, though it has welcomed the Accord.  On the basis of its military prowess and inimical relations with neighboring Arab states and Iran, Israel had developed close military relations with Turkey. These have been strained of late because of Israeli interference in north Kurdish Iraq, which could create serious problems with Turkey’s own Kurds. The relations are likely to deteriorate  further.  Russia might not be too unhappy. Distrust of any kind between Turkey and EU is welcome, with EU showing undue interest in Ukraine, which Russia considers its own back yard. President Vladimr Putin made a very successful visit to Ankara, with growing economic tie ups and closer cooperation against terrorism; from PKK by Turkey and Chechens by Russia. Iran is watching and while it is still tentative in its friendship with Turkey, any tension between Turkey and EU would be welcome. But not too much .It officially welcomed the Accord. Iran is moving closer to EU, Russia and even China to counteract USA and Israeli threats. After decades of hostility, Syria has now moved closer to Turkey because of US policy's in the region. Erdogan started his path breaking Damascus visit on 22 December . It has US disapproval and not liked by Israel.  Within the overall Nato alliance , Turkey would  now rely more on EU even on military matters.  To court the French, Erdogan placed orders for Airbus for its air line fleet a few months ago. With EU constraints over because of end of Turkey’s war against its rebellious Kurds, it would also go in for European military arms and hardware. Turkey’s well-trained half million strong Armed Forces are a most valuable strategic asset in the region. Thus, when EU develops a coherent foreign and defence policy, Turkish Armed Forces rile would be a pivotal. More so for EU’s rapid reaction forces.  Turkey will provide a bulwark against the perceived rising fundamentalist forces in Middle East, the Caucasus and beyond. Turkey, with whom the EU has a Customs agreement since 1996 will provide secure country as market and for investment, helpful to both sides.  Even the ban on Turks freely moving in to Europe, at some stage when it is in Europe's interests because of its ageing population, it could be eased.  Turks are very hard-working and intelligent workers and were preferred by the Germans over others in 1960s and 1970s in their economic boom years. So it is the EU which has come out with a win- win situation.  The conditions set by EU are very severe and it has taken its pound of flesh and exploited Turkey’s eagerness to join EU, and at any cost in recent years, after a 41-year lomg journey. The EU-Turkey deal is like a long term marital engagement, in which the two sides bargained for obligations and dowry leaving behind much rancour and bitterness.  But whether the engagement even after 15 years or more will end in marriage and consummation is not very clear.  But for 11 September it might have been easy to say” yes.”  If one drives west from Turkey’s coast of Antalya along the ancient Lycian southern coastline, now full of holiday resorts and beaches, one reaches Cavuskoy, a small village. There, one can walk up an incline for a few bracing kilometers, and find children trying to dowse methane fires that have issued from crevices since ancient times. And one can gaze out over the shimmering Mediterranean, from where Greek pirates once looked on the burning fires as they glided by at night. This is the origin of Chimera in Greek mythology, the fire-breathing female monster that resembled a lion in the forepart, a goat in the middle, and a dragon behind. Chimera is now used generally to symbolize a fantastic idea or a figment of the imagination. The EU might just remain a chimera for the Turks. (K Gajendra Singh is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies.  The views expressed here are his own.- Email-Gajendrak@hotmail.com)
Back to the top Home  | Papers  | Notes  | Forum  | Search  | Feedback  | Links Copyright © South Asia Analysis Group  All rights reserved. Permission is given to refer this on-line document for use in research papers and articles, provided the source and the author's name  are acknowledged. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes.