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Paper no. 1211
04. 01. 2005
THE TSUNAMI--- SOME SECURITY ASPECTS
by B.Raman
Some security aspects of the widespread tragedy caused by the Tsunami of December 26, 2004, have not received the attention they deserve.
2. The first aspect relates to the fact that areas inhabited by ethnic minorities have been very badly affected in the Tamil-majority Northern and Eastern Provinces of Sri Lanka and in the Car Nicobar area of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India.
3. The fact that about a half, if not over a half, of the fatalities in Sri Lanka are of the Sri Lankan Tamils in these two provinces has not been highlighted either by the Sri Lankan authorities or by the media. Even international media has been focussing their coverage of the tragedy on the areas inhabited by the Sinhalese majority and there has been very limited coverage of the impact on the Tamil minority.
4. According to statistics circulated by the web sites of pro-LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) organisations in the West, 16,656 Tamils have been killed---14,212 of them in the Eastern Province and the remaining in the Northern Province. 18,481 are missing--- 13,731 of them in the Eastern Province and the remaining in the Northern Province.
5. There is so far no reason to disbelieve this statistics. The LTTE seems to have done a better job of estimating the human loss and material damage in the areas under its control than the Government in the areas under its control and in organising relief and rehabilitation. It has been organising it with its legendary thoroughness and motivation of its cadres.
6. The LTTE has been alleging that the Government has not been paying the same attention to the relief and rehabilitation of the minority Tamils as it has been doing for the majority Sinhalese and that the Tamil minority areas are not getting their fair share of the international assistance flowing in.
7. Even if one allows for a certain level of disinformation by the LTTE for exploiting the present situation to win back the loyalty of the Tamils of the Eastern Province, who had been showing increasing signs of alienation due to the allegedly discriminatory policies of the Northerner-dominated LTTE political leadership, the emergence of perceptions even in some sections of the Tamil population that they are being treated as second class citizens in the matter of relief and rehabilitation would further alienate the Tamils from the Sinhalese and add to the difficulties of finding a negotiated solution to the Tamil problem.
8. The Andaman and Nicobar island territory of India, which has been the most affected in India, is inhabited by a large number of settlers from mainland India in the Andaman District. The Car Nicobar group of islands, which is less developed and more isolated, despite its strategic importance as the widow on South-East Asia and a watch-tower on the Malacca Straits, is largely inhabited by indigenous tribals.
9. Going by media reports, there seems to be a perception that the relief and rehabilitation measures for the local tribals are not as satisfactory as those for the people from the mainland. While this is due to extraordinary difficulties arising from the isolation of some of the islands and the almost total disruption of shipping transport services for the first few days after the Tsunami struck the islands on December 26,2004, there seems to be an unfortunate perception of governmental inadequacy in rushing to the relief of the native tribals.
10. Taking advantage of this, Western non-governmental organisations seem to be exercising pressure on the Govt. of India to let them go into Car Nicobar to attend to the relief and rehabilitation needs of the tribals. Keeping in view the strategic importance of the area, the Government of India has rightly rejected their demands. Its refusal to let them go in would carry conviction with the international community only if it steps up on a crash basis its own efforts. If the Western NGOs continue to give sermons to India on its obligation to let them go into Car Nicobar, New Delhi should not hesitate to tell them to first go to the US Naval base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean to estimate the humanitarian needs of the people there.
11. The havoc wrought by the Tsunami has led to an admirable outpouring of international assistance and sympathy for which the countries of the region have reasons to be grateful. The UN should have taken over the leadership of this massive international aid effort. Instead, the US has taken over the leadership and has reportedly roped in India too as its partner. US naval ships and military personnel have started moving into the affected countries to organise the relief effort. It has been reported that about 1,300 US Marines are likely to be deployed in Sri Lanka alone.
12. India has done well to reject US and West European offers of assistance. It has enough financial, material and human resources of its own to be able to take care of the relief and rehabilitation needs of its population, whether on the mainland or in the island territory.
13. The large-scale deployment of highly visible US troops in Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Thailand could make them attractive targets for Al Qaeda, the Jemmah Islamiyah and other jihadi terrorist organisations and add to the internal security problems of the affected countries. It would be wishful-thinking to believe that because of the enormous tragedy, the jihadi terrorists will refrain from acts of terrorism in the Tsunami-ravaged countries due to a fear that this could antagonise the local population. They have never cared for public opinion and fears of public revulsion have never been an inhibiting factor for them.
14. The tragedy in Thailand has not prevented the jihadi terrorists from continuing with their acts of terrorism in the Muslim majority provinces of southern Thailand.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Distinguished Fellow and Convenor, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Chennai Chapter. E-mail: corde@vsnl.com )
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