Paper no. 1213	05. 01. 2005
TSUNAMI: SECURITY IMPLICATIONS IN SRI LANKA  Guest Column-by Col R Hariharan (retd.)  The Tsunami that played havoc in millions of lives in ten countries of Asia had particularly been severe on Sri Lanka. While the final cost of the havoc in terms of human lives, material and infrastructure may well never be known. However, the world has responded with it all its heart to rush relief to the area. Sri Lanka and Thailand have been the focus of the Western world, undoubtedly because a large number of European tourists were spending a Christmas weekend on the sunny beach resorts of these countries. Troops, warships and air force elements of many countries including India, USA, United Kingdom, Pakistan and even Bangladesh are moving in Indian Ocean region rendering help to the Tsunami hit people of Indonesia, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Thailand.  A significant aspect of these efforts is the attempt by the U.S. to bypass the U.N. in putting together a separate assistance ‘consortium’ with India and Australia to canalize the relief effort. In all about 20 U.S. military ships and more than 10,000 Marines and sailors have been mobilized for the relief operation in the Indian Ocean region. This is the largest U.S. military concentration in Asia since the Vietnam War ended in 1975. This of course is a side act in the global power play.  Significantly, the Tsunami may also change the fate of two areas virtually under the control of separatist movements in Indonesia and Sri Lanka.  Aceh in Indonesia, the ground zero of the Tsunami, had been the heartland of Free Aceh movement with a strong following. The northeast province of Sri Lanka, where LTTE is virtually running a parallel government, has faced the maximum brunt of tsunami fury. Media reports from Colombo estimate the confirmed death toll in Sri Lanka at 30,916 with at least 20,000 more missing in the LTTE controlled areas of northeast. As these figures are being revised hourly, the final death toll may reach 60,000 – equalling the estimated death toll of the two-decade long Tamil Eelam conflict. According to UNICEF Executive Director Ms Carol Bellamy 50 percent of the estimated dead are probably children. Thirty nations are involved in the relief operations with many sending smaller medical teams. India responded within hours of the Tsunami to reach out to Sri Lanka. India probably has the largest compliment of foreign armed forces with 2000 naval personnel, and five warships with a dozen helicopters involved in the relief work.   The security implications of the Tsunami on the Tamil insurgency in Sri Lanka are of special interest to South Asia, particularly India. There are three aspects in realistically assessing the impact of the damage on the security situation. These are – infrastructure and terrain implications, design of operations and elements of intervention.  Available information suggests that the infrastructure damage in the northeast has been borne mainly by Mullaitivu coastal region and the Batticaloa-Amparai region. Of these, Mullaitivu in the North and Amparai in the south have been hit the hardest. Mullaitivu does not have a very well developed infrastructure. So the damage has been in human casualties. But infrastructure damage in the East is significant. According to the TamilNet, Col. Bhanu, a senior commander of the Liberation Tigers, who is directing the humanitarian operations, has said that in the east and southeast coast of Sri Lanka extensive damage had been caused to the coastal road network. Many areas are still marooned, hindering relief and rescue work. The Tsunami has destroyed the Arugambay Bridge across the Pottuvil lagoon’s main estuary and very close to the sea. As a section of the bridge was knocked out it will not be easy to repair. Similarly the Oluvil bridge (Kaliyodai Paalam) also has been destroyed. As it is an important link on the southeastern costal arterial road, movement to areas south of Kalmunai would be greatly impeded. According to LTTE in some of the important Tamil villages like Pandiruppu, Karaithivu, Thambiluvil and Thirukovil all buildings, homes and other structures up to 500 metres from the shore have been completely wiped out. In these places the Tigers enjoy significant support.  As a result of the destruction, LTTE forces are involved in a major relief operation in the area, with their limited engineer capability deployed to carry out temporary repairs. But to put back the infrastructure they would need heavy engineer effort available only to the government and Sri Lanka forces. This would imply reduction in LTTE’s maneuverability and offensive capability, leaving the initiative with Sri Lankan forces. The latter have air lift capability as well as regular engineer units to create the operational infrastructure needs. Karuna loyalists numbering about 500 are believed to be using jungle hideouts in Thoppigala area, northeast of Batticaloa, and in the Aralaganwilla-Maha Oya area, east of Batticaloa. These areas were probably outside the ambit of the Tsunami destruction.  They also can pose a threat to LTTE, which is strung up along the coastal area. Perhaps understanding the gravity of the situation LTTE has moved a large number of troops to the east from the north, ostensibly with supplies for relief work. The Malathy Infantry Regiment has also arrived there along with head of LTTE women’s wing, Ms. Thamilini, and deputy head of political division for Jaffna, Mr. Semmanan. In Mullaitivu area, in all likelihood the boat landing facilities of LTTE are probably no more; this will be a significant set back as it will delay the unloading of overseas military supplies risking hostile operational reaction from Sri Lanka Navy. Natural calamities are great levellers because they affect friend and foe alike. Ultimately who is affected more and who is smart to recoup by resourcefully adopting his operational approach to a changed environment will determine the military success. Before the Tsunami struck LTTE held the initiative in the stalled peace process; it could talk of taking up the hard option to resume the operations. LTTE’s strength came from its hold on the territory and tactical advantage it enjoyed in the peace process. In the hour of calamity, the priority of both sides will be to bring back normalcy in the lives of the people. LTTE has not given out the details of loss of lives among its armed cadres (barring three persons washed away by Tsunami waves as given by Soosai).  However, there is bound to be some deaths among its troops. With all the troops committed to its stretched relief work, and a part of it sent to the East, LTTE force levels for operations are depleted now. In actual terms, perhaps it has also lost the military initiative it had. The Sri Lankan forces are also depleted with their own losses and large-scale involvement in relief work. However, if there is a showdown, the presence of foreign troops – particularly from the U.S. and India in Sri Lanka – involved in relief work could make a world of difference. As a seasoned campaigner, Prabhakaran will be aware of this danger. In case of a military operation, additional airlift capability now available to Sri Lanka from the foreign helicopters employed in relief work would be formidable. These forces also have added to infrastructure restoration and repair capability. Similarly the foreign naval ships can create a strong cordon to prevent external access to LTTE. This is the reason for LTTE’s strong objection to presence of foreign troops, particularly from the U.S.     At present, Galle on the West coast is the focus of operations of three Indian Naval ships and the U.S. Marine survey team. Several hundred U.S.Marines were to be deployed there to provide ``limited engineering capability'' for repairing roads and other damaged infrastructure, as well as help in the distribution of food. The Bonhomme Richard, U.S. navy’s multi purpose assault ship carrying more than 1,300 Marines, with five hovercraft and 20 helicopters sailed off a few days back to provide assistance to Sri Lanka. Its presence in Sri Lanka would have tremendously boosted the capability of Sri Lanka forces. But Sri Lanka President Chandrika Kumaratunga, who had second thoughts in view of LTTE (and probably JVP) objections to the presence of U.S. troops, scaled down her request for help. Now only U.S. helicopters will be involved in the relief work. As a result of this, the Bonhomme Richard and another U.S. naval ship USS Duluth cancelled plans to participate in relief work in Sri Lanka and have instead joined the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its battle group off Sumatra. The USS Mount Rushmore, carrying a smaller contingent of Marines, is expected to reach Sri Lanka shortly. But the presence of a US battle group in the proximity of Sri Lanka is still militarily significant.  The diplomatic move of the Sri Lankan President of calling off the U.S. forces appears to have satisfied the LTTE for the time being. Regional and local task forces comprising a government representative, an LTTE political officer, an aid official of the Tamil Rehabilitation Organization, and a representative of an international charity group or UN body now guide relief operations in the LTTE-controlled areas. Earlier LTTE propaganda machines as well as NGOs had highlighted the neglect of northeast by the government of Sri Lanka. UNICEF Executive Director Ms Bellamy who met LTTE leaders including S.P. Thamilchelvan during a visit to Mullaitivu last Monday said she did not receive any complaints from them about government relief supplies not reaching LTTE-run areas. Col. Bhanu of LTTE paid a rare compliment to his opponents, saying,  “The Special Task Force (STF) has been helpful to civilians in the Amparai district. They rescued several people hit by the Tsunami and helped retrieve bodies. Their work has been commendable in that region… The LTTE and the STF are able to discuss and coordinate several issues in order to facilitate assistance to the people.” LTTE also appears to have understood the need for legitimacy, cooperation and transparency in handling the relief operations. In a press note appealing for help it said: “We welcome any individuals or organisations, irrespective of origin, to visit the devastated areas, see for themselves the devastation, meet the displaced in the welfare centres and verify the mechanism structured at the District level to ensure all relief is registered for accountability and transparency. The District level structure, inclusive of the Government Agent, INGO’s, NGO’s and civil society representatives has proven to be an effective mechanism. The efficacy of this mechanism has been the subject of commendation by visiting INGO’s, Heads of UN agencies and the like. Anybody can have unfettered access and it is not true that relief convoys are returned by the LTTE. Neither is tax imposed on humanitarian relief consignments.” The Tsunami has underlined two things. The ability of LTTE to take up organized relief work. In the words of a foreign media reporter, “Within minutes of the disaster, soldiers of the Liberation Tigers for Tamil Eelam, or LTTE, were evacuating survivors and pulling bodies from the still-roiling water, villagers and aid workers said. In a well-practised drill, squads set up roadblocks to control panic and prevent looting. Others requisitioned civilian vehicles to move the injured to hospitals. Many donated blood… By the end of the first day, the first refugee centres were set up. Women in the Tigers' camouflage uniforms began registering the survivors and recording the relief items they received - ensuring no one got more than he should.” This is an indicator of high standard of LTTE’s discipline and efficiency.  On the other hand, it also brought out the dependence of Tamil Eelam on the rest of Sri Lanka for help in times of distress. Repeatedly LTTE had sought external intervention to get the relief convoys move from the South.  One can only hope a synergy of both will be put to use for the benefit of the people of Sri Lanka rather than their destruction. The Sri Lanka - LTTE relations were on the brink of war on Christmas day. The Tsunami on the very next day has done what the mediators could not do earlier; it has brought both the LTTE and the government closer as “brothers in misery” to quote the words of Sri Lanka Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse. This is a welcome change in an otherwise gloomy political atmosphere. International community can only hope that the joint relief efforts will break the cycle of distrust and build the level of confidence to give life to the peace process. (Col R Hariharan, an MI specialist in counter-insurgency intelligence, served with the IPKF as Head of Intelligence in Sri Lanka. E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com)
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