Paper no. 1221	14. 01. 2005
RUSSIA BARES ITS TEETH TO ISRAEL    by K.Gajendra Singh Russian –Syrian Missiles Deal:  Although Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov now visiting Washington denied any missiles deal with Syria , but Israel ’s Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom was the first official to admit on Thursday that Israel did ask Russia to halt the deal. ``We turned to the Russians and asked that they not complete this deal,'' said Shalom. `` Syria is a country that supports terror and is supplying Hezbollah with weapons nonstop.''  He added that the sale ``will disrupt regional stability and won't improve the chances for peace.'' Israeli analyst Gerald Steinberg said the reported sales came as a surprise because the Syrians did not have money to buy Russian weapons. "If this report is true, it is very problematic and will pose a challenge to Israeli military planners," added Steinberg. It would be another adverse development for Israel and US amidst deteriorating situation around Iraq , but Moscow has made the point. Russia would not be pushed around by US led western efforts to squeeze it in Ukraine or Georgia , lecture it on sale of Russian oil giant Yukos and support to insurgency in Chechnya . The Jerusalem Post cited top Israeli diplomatic officials as saying that Israel asked the United States to pressure Russia to scrap the arms deal claiming that the missiles could be smuggled into Iraq and endanger the U.S. forces there. The Post also said that Syrian President Bashar Assad will sign the deal during his scheduled visit to Moscow from 24 to 28 January. While as an old ally Syria received Soviet-era Scud ground-to-ground missiles. But media reports suggested Moscow was ready to sell a vastly updated version of the Scud, the Iskander or even SS-26 missile. It is capable of pinpoint strikes against targets within a 300 kilometer range, which would include most Israeli territory including its atomic reactor Dimona. US Nato ally Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayib Erdogan, has just completed his return visit to Moscow, soon after Russian President Putin’s postponed visit to Ankara last month, the first ever since Podgorny’s visit in 1973. While relations between Turkey and USA have cooled down primarily over US led invasion of Iraq , Turkey has come closer to its historic enemy Russia . In 1999 Ankara threatened invading Syria if it did not expel Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan (which it did and he was captured and imprisoned in Turkey ), but since then relations between Syria and Turkey have warmed up, with exchange of visits by Assad and Erdogan. After exchange of visits by Erdogan and Iranian President Khatami to Ankara , relations between them historically soured by Shia’a and Sunni rivalry and enmity are improving in the back ground of US led invasion of Iraq and the turmoil and increasing chaos in the region. It is going to get worse.    At the same time relations between Turkey and Israel which were almost like allies during the cold war and grew closer after the fall of the Berlin Wall, have deteriorated recently, with Erdogan accusing Israel of state terrorism and asking it to leave Kurdish north Iraq alone, which would adversely affect its own Kurds. Israel has been training Kurdish ephemeras to operate in the neighborhood specially in Iran and Syria . Why is Russia angry: Speaking to media in Moscow end last month , Putin, expressed his anger at the West , whether it was about the latter’s encouragement to insurgency in Chechnya and a string of US led Western “ franchised “ successes in getting anti-Russian leaders elected in its strategic neighbourhood , ie ‘rose revolution “ in Georgia in November , 2003 and “ orange revolution “in even more vital Ukraine in the recent long drawn out battle , in which finally anti-Russian Victor Yushshenko is likely to get the nod after the pro-Russian loser had originally “gained “in the 21 November poll. Putin said that, "Every country has the right to choose the development path it considers best, including in organising its political system." Referring to US criticism of 21 November elections in Ukraine (Powell said US would not accept them), he retorted that he was not ecstatic about what happened there ( USA ),“ Do you think that the electoral system in the United States is entirely flawless? “"Do I have to recall the last elections in the United States or the one before?" he added. He pointed out that the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe had criticised the US for barring observers from some polling stations in last month's elections. "There was even intimidation of voters” He also ridiculed the Texan judge’s ruling on the sale of the Russian oil company Yukos.  "I am not sure whether they know where Russia is. The level of professional training [of the judge] perplexes me, " he added. He also lambasted the scheduled elections on 30 January elections in Iraq saying that “it could not be fair while the country remained occupied by US-led forces “ . Russia , in spite of US pressure , is going ahead with cooperation in setting up nuclear power stations in Iran . China recently signed a massive long term agreement with Iran for energy purchase and development of Iranian oil and gas sector . Energy hungry China and India are aggressively bidding for investment and development of Yukos energy assets.     On Russian-Israeli relations ,  Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko said that they were sound. ``As regards military-technical cooperation with Middle East governments, Russia strictly follows generally accepted regulations and is in accordance with international agreements directed at preventing the destabilizing accumulation of weapons,'' Yakovenko said in statement on Wednesday. US Reaction: Before the Russian denial , while describing Russian arms sales to Syria as speculative , State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher made it clear that the United States was opposed in principle to all arms sales to Syria .He said "We're seen reports of the sale. The U.S. policy on this is very clear. We're against the sale of weaponry to Syria , the sale of lethal military equipment to Syria , which is state sponsor of terrorism. We think those kinds of sales are not appropriate. The Russians know about this policy. They know about our views." He added that the Russian entities involved in such a sale would be subject to U.S. sanctions under a law aimed at curbing the flow of arms to countries on the terrorism list. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov was  in Washington for high level talks including with Secretary of State Colin Powell. The proposed sale has brought tension not only between Russian-Israel relations but with USA as well .Israel said that the missiles might end up in the hands of Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas and be aimed at Israeli targets. Hezbollah, which is close to Syria , fought an 18-year guerrilla war against Israeli forces in south Lebanon , firing rockets at northern Israel until 2000 and threatens to do so. The developments could bring some restraint over a reckless Israeli policy pursued by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Syrian President Bashar Assad was furious when Israeli jets recently buzzed him in his palace .Apart from stopping such insults the missiles deal would beef up Syria ’s air defenses and discourage Israel making regular threats to Syria . Moscow Daily Kommersant said that Damascus asked for 18 Iskander missiles in August but were told they were not been fully tested. The Syrians have now been told that the missiles were ready. According to Israeli sources Russia and Syria signed the deal a few days ago for advanced Igla SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles, which would inhibit frequent Israeli overflights over Lebanon . Kommersant said that Syria was also interested in buying 18 Iskander-E guided missile systems, and Russia has agreed. Mounted on truck launchers, they can destroy targets up to 280 kilometers (175 miles) away and would cover most of Israel 's territory, including the Dimona nuclear center in the Negev desert. Israeli officials refused to comment on Iskander-E missiles. Israel has asked for U.S. involvement in stalling the deal . David Siegel, a spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington , said, "The reports in this regard are very disturbing and, as in other cases with strategic implications, we conduct an ongoing dialogue with the administration." The Igla SA-18s are among the most sophisticated shoulder-held anti-aircraft missiles. Simple to operate and light weight, it is alleged to be an ideal weapon for militants, according to military analysts. Analysts said the United States might be concerned that Iraqi insurgents might get their hands on Syria 's Russian anti-aircraft missiles, threatening U.S. warplanes in Iraq . This palpably is an Israeli line. "We have enough problems on the ground with Syria and we don't need more problems from the sky," Vice Premier Shimon Peres said. Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said: "We have close contacts with the Russians. We had consultations over the past few days, and we hope to reach the necessary agreement." Deputy Russian foreign minister Alexander Saltanov is in the region to discuss the missile issue. Israelis are keen not to jeopardize improving relations with Russia in place since unraveling of USSR . Israeli Foreign Ministry official Gideon Meir denied a Russian media report that Israel had recalled its ambassador. The ambassador was in Israel but would return to Moscow soon , added Meir. Many millions of Russian Jews have immigrated to Israel , changing the demographic make up of Israel   and making its policies more right wing and aggressive . Ariel Sharon, who is of Russian descent, has visited Moscow three times since becoming Prime Minister in 2001. He intervened with President Putin to stop Iran in its covert nuclear arms program and to restrain Syria along with its Lebanese and Palestinian proxies. Wolf blaming the lamb ! Paul Beaver, a London-based defense analyst, commented that while Russia has upgraded Syrian military equipment it had not sold new arms since 1990. Beaver said that the SA-18 has evolved from the Russian shoulder-held SAM-7, which was widely used during the Vietnam War. The SA-18 is much more flexible in time , range and can even target non- heat-emitting section of an aircraft .It can also overcome many Western defensive maneuvers like flares, used to deflect anti-aircraft missiles. The sophisticated missiles cost about US$250,000 each. Conclusion: By its ill advised , ill prepared and illegal invasion of Iraq with no causus belli ( the search for WMDs has finally been given up ) , George W. Bush administration has really opened a Pandora’s box .It has unleashed forces it neither understands or even tries to comprehend. US and Sharon led Israeli administration along with British Prime Minister Tony Blair must now feel very isolated but remain in a state of denial .Arab and Islamic world in particular and the world in general abhor US policies in Iraq and what it has done and is doing there .The scheduled 30 January elections in Iraq , would be as legitimate as the current exile- led administration in Iraq. It bodes ill for the security , stability and the unity of Iraq . Remember Pakistan after its elections in 1970 and its break up. Even Sunni regimes in the region friendly to USA are openly opposed to the polls. Jerusalem Post commented that officials in Jerusalem have noted that Russia 's interest in the deal stems from an effort to reassert its influence in the region. "For 30 years, Russia was involved in the Middle East on the basis of its giving away of weapons to the Syrians," one senior official said. "This is a way to again become a major player." The official said Syria owed Russia some $8 billion for previous arms deals. This time, the official said, the Russians were demanding cash payment, and the expectation is that Iran will pay the bill.  Many Arab and Islamic countries would be ready to pay up under the counter for the missiles . Or  would Russia do a deal with USA . The move to sell missiles to Syria would make Russia popular in the Islamic world .With larger revenues from high oil prices Russia can stand up to US pressure better than a few years ago. China is happily watching USA “having an interesting time “ in the region . (K Gajendra Singh is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies.  The views expressed here are his own.- Email-Gajendrak@hotmail.com)
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