Paper no. 1229	24. 01. 2005
IRAQ: KIRKUK, THE NEXT FLASHPOINT?  by K. Gajendra Singh Kirkuk, under which lie more than 10 billion barrels of proven reserves of oil could be the next flash point in Iraq. Located in Mosul province about 250 kilometers north of Baghdad at the foot of the Zagros Mountains, it is one of the two leading oil production centres although the pipelines connecting it to Ceyhan export terminal in Turkey have been repeatedly bombed by insurgents. The city has been a bone of contention between Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens; Turkey‘s ethnic cousins, which takes up their cause regularly. Because of the conflicting claims, Kirkuk has often been compared to Jerusalem. Even the losing Presidential candidate Democrat Senator John Kerry, who voted against the nomination of Condoleezza Rice as the next Secretary of State in the Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee, felt compelled to warn of possible turmoil in Kirkuk. Now that the media focus on the inauguration of the second term of US President George W Bush is over, the attention would shift to the Iraqi elections on 30 January. And the ethnically divided Kirkuk remains a dangerous tinderbox Kurdish influx into Kirkuk 'unacceptable' - Turkey Namik Tan, Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman told a press conference on 19 January that the Iraqis, the United Nations and the entire international community should take measures against "fait-accomplish that will not contribute to lasting peace in Iraq... and have negative impacts on the stability of the region." "No one in the 21st century can subject others' land to illegal fait-accomplish," Tan said, without explicitly naming the Kurds. "It is unacceptable for groups which object to the wrong policies and practices of the past to commit the same mistakes themselves now, under the cover of freedom, justice and democracy," he added.   Tan said that many people in Kirkuk were now concerned that "some elements are drifting toward a mistake which may have grave consequences. "They say that hundreds of thousands of settlers are being shifted to Kirkuk and the majority of them have neither personal nor family bonds with Kirkuk. The methods and mechanisms of return have been clearly determined. They should be implemented in a legitimate way," he concluded.   Last week, the Kurds reached a deal with the Iraqi government, which will allow nearly 100,000 Kurds said to have been expelled from Kirkuk by Saddam Hussein regime to vote in Iraq's January 30 elections in Tamim province, where the city is located. This agreement would change the demographic balance and risks the eruption of tensions in the ethnically divided and volatile city among Kurds and Arabs, and a large number of Turkmens. Ankara is strongly opposed to Kurdish control of Kirkuk, which many Kurds would like to make the capital of an independent Kurdish state. Many Kurdish leaders like Jalal Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) among them, claim that Kirkuk is historically Kurdish.   There have been repeated clashes between Turkmens and Kurds during the past 50 years. In 1959, there were bloody riots between poorer and communist led Kurds and the Turkmens .The latter belonged to the ruling elite in the Ottoman era and are still prosperous. In 1996 during a brief Kurdish rapprochement with the Baghdad regime, the Iraqi military executed 17 Turkmen activists and officials in the nearby city of Irbil. Iraqi Turkmens blame this event on the Kurds. There were ethnic flare-ups between in 1998 and 2000 as well. According to UN officials and a Human Rights Watch report, it is claimed that between 120,000 and 200,000 Kurds, as well as Turkmens and Assyrians were expelled after 1991, tens of thousands were squeezed out earlier. Iraqi Kurds claim that Kirkuk was overwhelmingly Kurdish in the 1950s before the "Arabization" of the city carried out by the Ba’athist regime.   In April 2003, it was estimated that the Kirkuk population was composed of 250,000 each of Turkmens, Arabs and Kurds. Many of Arabs re-settled there are mostly Shi'ites from the south. The Turkmens are also generally Shi'ites, like their ethnic kin, the Alevis in Turkey, but many have given up Turkmen traditions in favor of the urban, clerical religion common among the Arabs of the south. Kirkuk is therefore a stronghold of the Muqtada al-Sadr .The influential Shi'ite political party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), also has good support, Kurds are mostly Sunnis, and were the dominant population in Kirkuk up to 1960s and 1970s when many were forced to move further north. According to some reports, over 70,000 Kurds have entered Kirkuk during the past two years and about 50,000 Arabs have returned to the south. It can be said that till recently there were about 320,000 Kurds and 200,000 Arabs in the city. The number of Turkmen has also been augmented. During the Ottoman rule, the Turkmen dominated the city, and so it remained until the discovery of oil.   According to US-crafted interim constitution of Iraq, Kirkuk's final status would be settled only after Iraq’s final constitution were ratified at the end of 2005, followed by a census.   Turkey’s Kurdish Problem Turkey has serious problems with its own Kurds, who form 20% of the population. A rebellion since 1984 against the Turkish state led by Abdullah Ocalan of the Marxist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) cost over 35,000 lives, including 5,000 soldiers. To control and neutralize the rebellion, thousands of Kurdish villages have been bombed, destroyed, abandoned or relocated; millions of Kurds have been moved to shanty towns in the south and east or migrated westwards. The economy of the region was shattered. With a third of the Turkish army tied up in the southeast, the cost of countering the insurgency at its height amounted to between $6 billion to $8 billion a year. The rebellion died down after the arrest and trial of Ocalan in 1999, but not fully eradicated. A five-year cease –fire agreed to in 1999 was not renewed in June last year. But after a court in Turkey in 2002 commuted to life imprisonment the death sentence passed on Ocalan and the parliament granted rights for the use of the Kurdish language and the release from jail of pro-PKK Kurdish members of Parliament, some of the root causes of the Kurdish rebellion have been removed. The Europe Union (EU) –Turkey accord of 17 December 2004 would guarantee political and cultural freedoms for Kurds.   But the PKK - now also called Konga-Gel - shifted almost 4,000 of its cadres to northern Iraq and refused to lay down arms.  There have been increasing skirmishes and battles between Kurdish insurgents and Turkish security forces inside Turkey. Turkey remains frustrated over US reluctance to employ military means against the PKK fighters - in spite of promises to do so. The US priority to disarm PKK cadres was never very high. In fact, the US wants to reward Iraqi Kurds, who have remained peaceful and loyal unlike the rest of the population in the country. Iraqi Kurds have been ambivalent towards the PKK, helping them at times, but more so now. Ankara has entered north Iraq from time to time - despite protests - to attack PKK bases and its cadres. Ankara has also said that it would regard an independent Kurdish entity as a causes belli for war. It determinedly opposes the Kurds seizing the oil centers around Kirkuk, which would give them financial autonomy. It would also constitute a reason for entry into north Iraq. The Turks vehemently oppose any change in the ethnic composition of the city of Kirkuk. The Turks manifest a pervasive distrust of autonomy or models of a federal state for Iraqi Kurds as it would affect and encourage the aspirations of their own Kurds. It also revives memories of Western conspiracies against Turkey and the unratified 1920 Treaty of Sevres forced on the Ottoman Sultan by the World War I victors, which had promised independence to the Armenians and autonomy and finally freedom to Turkey's Kurds. So Mustafa Kemal Ataturk opted for the unitary state of Turkey and Kurdish rebellions in Turkey were ruthlessly suppressed. The British occupied Kurdish Iraq in 1922 after a truce with Turkey, because of its oil potential.   The 1980s war between Iraq and resurgent Shi'ites in Iran helped the PKK to establish itself in the lawless north Kurdish Iraq territory. The PKK also helped itself with arms freely available in the region during the eight-year war. The 1990-91 Gulf crisis and war also proved to be a watershed in the violent explosion of the Kurdish rebellion in Turkey. A nebulous and ambiguous situation emerged in north Iraq when, at the end of the war, US president Bush Sr encouraged the Kurds (and the hapless Shi'ites in the south) to revolt against Saddam's Sunni Arab regime. Turkey was dead against it, as a Kurdish state in the north would give ideas to its own Kurds. But Iraqi Kurds have enjoyed autonomy under US protection since 1991.   Warning by Turkish Armed Forces   Turkish Armed Forces have repeatedly warned Iraqi Kurds against attempts to change Kirkuk’s demography. "Some ethnic groups are pursuing efforts to change the demographic structure of Kirkuk while steps are being taken to bring stability to Iraq," the deputy head of the General Staff, Gen. Ilker Basbug, told a monthly media briefing in Ankara in July, 2004  "We expect the interim government of Iraq to prevent that," he added. The general warned that failure to find a "just and lasting solution" to the status of the disputed city would threaten Iraq's territorial and political integrity. "Such a development would be seen as a serious security concern for Turkey," Basbug said.   Gen Basbug continued, "It is true that this issue is an internal affair of Iraq, but this region carries the greatest risk regarding the future of Iraq. We are concerned that wrong steps may plunge Iraq into internal strife ... and therefore it is out of the question for us to stay outside this issue." "We want the preservation of Iraq's territorial integrity and political unity and we want that stability is established in Iraq as soon as possible," he added.   Basbug warned that confrontation between different ethnic groups would be inevitable if " it (the oil) is owned entirely by a certain group ... this will plunge into confrontation groups in the region whose expectations are not met," he said. He claimed that Turkey's concerns were shared "at the highest level by the United States"   Military Contingency Plans for North Iraq   In October /November, 2004 it was widely reported that Turkish military had began drafting contingency plans for a possible invasion of northern Iraq in early 2005 with at least 20,000 troops. Officials said that the Turkish General Staff (TGS) had urged approval from the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and to sound out the USA. "The current phase is to show the United States that we're serious," a Turkish government source said. "After the Iraqi elections in January, the Turkish military will be ready to move." It would be a major offensive in northern Iraq to prevent Kurdish militias from controlling the area. The TGS was very concerned by the reported Kurdish effort to squeeze out ethnic Turks from Kirkuk.  In mid October, Erdogan and his cabinet reviewed first the plan with Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok and Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul, with a planned rapid deployment of up to 40,000 troops in northern Iraq, operational within 18 hours of approval. A scaled-down version of the military plan was then discussed in the National Security Council on October 27. The first goal of the ground operation, supported by fighter-jets and attack helicopters, would be to destroy PKK strongholds in the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq.  The General Staff warned the government that it could no longer ignore the Kurdish threat, more so as Kurds from Iran and Syria had reportedly supported the PKK, and some even participated in PKK attacks in southeastern Turkey. Turkish officials said that the Peshmerga had dug tunnels and established outposts outside Dahouk, near the Turkish border .In spite of Turkish complaints and US assurance to begin with, USA has refused to eliminate the PKK strongholds. Washington also did not give any implicit approval of Turkish contingency plans.  Recent US- Turkish meetings   There have been regular meetings to discuss the Iraq situation. Before the January meetings, when asked if US military action against PKK in north Iraq was part of the agenda, the US Ambassador to Ankara Eric Edelman told Turkey’s Zaman.com (7 January),”I don't think that is likely to come up because our immediate preoccupation in terms of the use of our military assets is to provide security for the elections on January 30th. And that's the immediate goal.” Further pressed on the US position if Kurds applied to the United Nations for independence as Kurdish leader Barzani (Masud) said, "We fight for Kirkuk", Edelman replied,” Our position is clear.” “We believe in an Iraq that is unified and whose territorial integrity is complete and whole. Mr. Barzani is free to say whatever he wants. I can't tell him what to say, nor can anybody else. And I'm not sure telling him would keep him from saying it anyway.”  During his talks last week, US commander in the Middle East General John Abizaid, reiterated to the Turkish government that he could not spare any troops for an assault on PKK guerrillas. While US has declared the Marxist PKK a terrorist organization, he added, "we also understand - all of us understand - that our troops have a lot of work to do there along with the Iraqi security forces, and we agree that, over time, we must deal with the PKK." The general's statement, little different from the assurances given by other U.S. officials over the last year, was unlikely to ease either the Turkish government’s distrust of US promises or public hostility toward U.S. policy in Iraq.  A State department delegation led by Laura Kennedy, deputy under secretary of state discussed PKK incursions and activities with Turkish and Iraqi officials in Ankara last week (Tuesday). A statement after the meeting underlined that USA preferred that the Iraqis and the Turks sorted out the problem bilaterally.  Turkey complains that US has done little in Iraq to discourage PKK from evicting the Turkmen population from Kirkuk, or to prevent frequent kidnappings and killings of Turkish workers and truck drivers in Iraq. Turkey fears that that an overwhelming victory by Iraqi Shiites in the January elections could encourage Iraqi Kurds to solidify their semi-autonomous status in North Iraq.  Fissures in relations The current differences over US led illegal war on Iraq between the cold war allies since the collapse of the Soviet Union are only symptoms of the changing strategic equation in the region and elsewhere. It was first brought into sharp focus when the Turkish Parliament refused in early March 2003 a US request to allow its forces to open a second front into North Iraq. Tensions between them have led to warnings and embarrassing incidents from time to time. Like the acrimonious exchange of words in July, 2003 following the arrest and imprisonment of 11 Turkish commandos in North Kurdish Iraq, for which Washington expressed "regret".   In September 2004, differences erupted publicly again over US attacks on the Turkmens in northern Iraq. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul warned that if the US did not cease its attacks on Tal Afar, a Turkmen city at the junction of Turkey, Iraq and Syria, Ankara might withdraw its support to the US in Iraq. "I told [US Secretary of State Colin Powell] that what is being done there is harming the civilian population, that it is wrong, and that if it continues, Turkey's cooperation on issues regarding Iraq will come to a total stop." He added, "We will continue to say these things. Of course we will not stop only at words. If necessary, we will not hesitate to do what has to be done."   Apart from its umbilically attached strategic ally Israel, Turkey is still a key ally in a largely hostile region. US forces use its Incirlik military base near North Iraq. Turkish firms are also involved heavily in the construction and transport business in Iraq. It provides an alternative route through friendly northern Kurdish Iraqi territory than those from Jordan and Kuwait.   Another cause for a recent spat was the US invasion of Fallujah on since November to ‘pacify the city ‘. Turks in general and many members of Parliament denounced it. Mehmet Elkatmýþ, Chairman of Parliament’s Human Rights Investigation Commission in an extraordinary session condemned the United States for committing “genocide,” in Iraq, which angered Washington. "Iraq's occupation has turned into the genocide of Iraqi people," the Anatolia quoted Elkatmis as saying. "There is no example of such violence and genocide in history. ... (It is) worse than the times of Hitler and Mussolini." Elkatmis also claimed that USA used chemical and nuclear weapons in Iraq. A U.S. diplomat in Ankara, speaking on condition of anonymity, described Elkatmis' comments as ridiculous, and said the claim that the United States had used either chemical, nuclear or cluster bombs were false.   In a public statement, the Religious Affairs Directorate, attached to the Prime Minister’s Office, lamented that there was an “unstoppable humanitarian tragedy” and that the war in Iraq had “turned into savageness.” The Government, on the other hand, tried to alleviate the resentment. A team of Foreign Ministry bureaucrats gave a briefing to members of the Parliament’s Human Rights Investigation Commission, but Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül, when asked to comment on Elkatmýþ’s remarks, declined to take a position .He said that everyone was free to express their opinion in open societies, but added that Turkey was already doing its best in frankly explaining to its NATO ally whenever it did something wrong. “In view of the importance we attach to Turkish-U.S. friendship, we are explaining to American officials everything that we deem to be wrong in the region.” He said that "excessive use of force in Iraq" was of great concern. The Foreign Ministry said Turkey sent humanitarian aid, including tents, food and medicine to Fallujah. Prime Minister Erdogan also conveyed to U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney Turkey's concerns about Fallujah.   Conclusions Until the third week of December, Turkish leadership was totally focused on getting a date to start negotiations for Turkey’s entry into EU. While the deal was far from satisfactory, it was a positive development for the ruling party and Turkey, having anchored the country to Europe. It can expect help and support from Europe. In any case Turkey’s policies on Iraq, Iran and the region are now closer to the EU positions.  Prime Minister Erdogan recently completed his return visit to Moscow, soon after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s postponed visit to Ankara last month, the first ever since Podgorny’s visit in 1973. While relations between Turkey and USA have cooled down primarily over Iraq, Turkey has come closer to its historic enemy Russia. After exchange of visits by Erdogan and Iranian President Mohammad Khatami to Ankara, relations between them historically soured by Shiite and Sunni rivalry and enmity are improving in the background of the turmoil in Iraq and increasing chaos in the region. It is going to get worse.     In 1999 Ankara had threatened invading Syria if it did not expel Abdullah Ocalan (which it did and he was captured and imprisoned in Turkey), but since then relations between Syria and Turkey have warmed up, with exchange of visits by Syrian President Bassar Assad and Erdogan. There is talk of Russia supplying state of art missiles to Syria. In the past Turkey would have denounced such a deal.  At the same time relations between Turkey and Israel, which were very close during the cold war era and reached a level almost like allies after the fall of the Berlin Wall, have deteriorated sharply, with Erdogan accusing Israel of state terrorism and asking it to leave Kurdish north Iraq alone. Israel has been training Kurdish peshmergas in North Iraq to operate in the neighborhood specially in Iran and Syria. (K Gajendra Singh is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies.  The views expressed here are his own.- Email-Gajendrak@hotmail.com)
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