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Paper no. 1693
03. 02. 2006
LA’FFAIRE IRAN: ALL ROADS LEAD TO THE BOMB
Guest Column by Dr. Harsh V. Pant
Even as the US and the Europeans scramble to put in place a united front vis-à-vis Iran, it’s clear that Iran intends to go all out with its nuclear program. It has not only assumed a belligerent posture over its nuclear program but has also upped the ante on the issue of Israel. The mullahs in Iran seem to be moving to a point of no return with some eminent observers (such as Niall Fergusson) even speculating whether we are witnessing the origins of the next World War. While such sentiments might yet be in a minority, what is undoubtedly clear is that the Iranian regime has decided to test how far they can push the West.
In a way, the West should have been prepared for this showdown. All signs indicated that it was coming one way or another. And yet the US and the Europeans seem to be struggling to come up with a coherent response.
Strategically, it makes sense for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. In a world where states have to fend for their own security, there is no better deterrent than a nuclear weapon. Nuclear weapons may not be popular with the public opinion in the West but all major states that have nuclear weapons know their importance and therefore, have no intention of giving them up. Which states can be more secure than Britain and France today and yet there are no indications that these states want to renounce their nuclear arsenal.
Compared to these states, Iran is highly insecure, located as it is in a highly volatile region. Its neighbours, India, Pakistan, and most importantly, Israel have long had nuclear weapons and do not seem to have done too badly for themselves. Moreover, after September 11, 2001 Iran has to contend with the presence of its biggest adversary in its very neighbourhood, with the US straddling Iran from both sides in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is also possible that the one lesson Iran may have learnt from the US invasion of Iraq is that the only way to prevent the US from invading is to acquire nuclear weapons as soon as possible. (Poor Saddam, if he really had nuclear weapons, the US wouldn’t have dared!).
This strategic drive got further strengthened in Iran with the complete collapse of the reformist political parties in the last elections and the election of a hard-liner, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as the President with little or no experience in global politics. He has decided that the only way he can continue to sideline his opponents such as Hashemi Rafsanjani is by adopting an extreme posture vis-à-vis Israel and the Great Satan. And much as the liberals in the West would like to believe otherwise, both these causes are very popular among the Iranian masses. Also, this helps Ahmadinejad to divert attention from a failing economy and soaring rates of unemployment.
So, after calling the Nazis' World War II slaughter of European Jews a "myth" and proclaiming that Israel should be “wiped off the map” or moved to Germany or the US, a conference of holocaust deniers is reportedly being convened by Iran. At the same time, the nuclear program is being used to challenge the US. This seems like a perfect time to take on the US as the Americans seem bogged down in Iraq with the US public having no more stomach for other military adventures. Iran also realizes that it enjoys great leverage in the political and security environment in Iraq and can further intensify its sabotage activities in Iraq if need be.
The global situation is also working in Iran’s favour. The credibility of the US is at an all time low in the comity of nations after the Iraq fiasco. Few states will be willing to place their bets on American pronouncements (or for that matter British) even if they are accompanied by evidence. Russia and China, two states with real leverage vis-à-vis Iran are unlikely to support meaningful sanctions for the fear of hurting their own interests. And so they are continuing to resist American and European efforts to the put the Iranian affair before the United Nations Security Council.
It is not clear if the US and the Europeans have any meaningful strategy to deal with Iran. Economic sanctions and the military option against Iran seem to suffer from serious problems. Indeed, if a nation makes a strategic decision that it wants to have nuclear weapons (a choice that the Iranian political elite seems to have made), there is little that the international community can actually do, short of invading the country and seizing its nuclear assets. What is clear, however, is that diplomacy had long ceased to be a serious option. So long as Iran realized that it could play the Europeans against the US, it kept up with the charade of diplomacy. When it finally dawned on Iran that the Europeans have seen through this game and were forging a united front with the Americans, it revealed its true colours.
What is surprising is that it took so long for the Europeans to recognize this ploy. For long, all roads have been leading to the Bomb in Tehran and it won’t be long before the mullahs in Iran start brandishing it in the face of the West.
[The writer is with the Department of Defence Studies at King’s College, London. The views expressed are author's own]
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