POPULISM – nagging Vajpayee?
by R.Upadhyay
Permanent fear of an electoral backlash has affected the mind set of
politicians in India irrespective of their political affiliations. The
Vajpayee government appears to be no exception. Only votes appear to
matter, not ideology, good governance or economy. Add this to the
personal ambitions of individual leaders and one has a deadly mixture
which could embarrass any government.
Vajpayee might have recovered from his knee
problem and the BJP might be patting its back on the outcome of an
opinion poll conducted recently by the TNS-MODE for Hindustan Times in
four metros in the country rating their leader from "good to
excellent" Prime Minister, but the ground reality is not so
encouraging.
The BJP leaders claim that the tide of party’s
popularity is turning in its favour particularly after change of guard
in UP, and heading the Governments in Goa and the two of the newly
created States of Uttaranchal and Jharkhand. But the ground reality is
different with disarray within BJP and within the partners of the NDA.
The emergence of National Democratic Alliance
was not out of any political ideology but a political compulsion.
Contrary to this widely shared public perception, ambitious junior
partners in the alliance continue to embarrass the Prime Minister by
pushing through their agenda. Instead of curing the disease, Vajpayee
also appears to go along with the populist demands. The Jayalalitha
episode was a symptom of inherent poor health of this unprincipled
combination in 1998 and no lesson has been learnt by the allies yet.
In the 1999 Lok-Sabha elections, the verdict
was for Vajpayee’s leadership and not for the BJP or the NDA. However,
lack of cohesion within the ruling combine and the Prime Minister
succumbing to the pressure of the junior partners by accepting their
populist demands for their political interests and personal ambitions
have made a dent on his popularity and the government.
Problems faced by the Prime Minister are from
within the ruling alliances. In his bid to assuage the dissidents within
the BJP, the Prime Minister carried out mini expansion of his
jumbo-sized cabinet in months of October and November. But he has not
been able to develop a mechanism to counter the never-ending populist
demands of his coalition partners. It is unfortunate that the political
leadership of ruling NDA never gave any serious thought to the
consequences of blackmailing being frequently adopted by some of the
allies. Now that the country has entered into coalitional politics, it
is time that this problem is looked into.
The assembly elections in West Bengal scheduled
to be held next year have made Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee
so desperate that she has thrown all the political norms to winds for
the sake of her populist electoral strategy. She submitted her
resignation from Union Cabinet in protest against the hike in price of
LPG and Kerosene Oil for which decision was taken in the cabinet and
Trinamool Congress was also one of the participants. Though aware of
this opportunistic demand, the Prime
Minister had to roll back the price marginally to satisfy his mercurial
ally.
Mamata Banerjee is now only "partially
satisfied." Her demand of reservation for jobs to Muslims and
opposition to Government’s move for privatisation of nationalised
banks show that she will continue to keep the Prime Minister under
pressure at least till the Assembly polls in West Bengal are over.
Mamata’s people’s friendly image and clean
political career will be of no avail if she continues to make unworkable
demands which in the long term may affect the coalition culture and
stability of governments to follow.
The Trinamool Congress supremo accepted the
responsibility of Rail Ministry in Union Cabinet but has been
concentrating more on interests in the state politics of West Bengal.
It is not surprising for those who have been
watching Mamta ever since she became a partner of the National
Democratic Alliance in 1998. She had adopted such tactics on earlier
occasions too. Her fiery statements just after submitting resignation
from Union Cabinet on September 30 were not due to her disillusionment
with the NDA Government for hiking the price of petroleum products, but
for other reasons. She is known to be in search of an excuse for parting
company of BJP-led NDA, which she has been contemplating for long for
the sake of 23.6 percent of Muslim votes in the forthcoming Assembly
polls, without which she is not sure of overthrowing the twenty years
and more of the rule of CPM-led Left Front Government in her state.
Shiv Sena, another ally of the BJP burnt the
effigy of the Prime Minister Vajpayee near Parliament in protest against
the unilateral announcement of a cease-fire in Jammu and Kashmir by the
Government in the month of Ramzan.
Telugu Desam Party, an ally in the NDA though
not in the Government is equally responsible for keeping the Prime
Minister restless. In its Parliamentary Party meeting at Hyderabad on
November 19 chaired by the party president Chandrababu Naidu, the TDP
MPs were asked to step up pressure on the Central Government for
procurement of accumulated food grains in the state and remunerative
prices to the farmers. The Party MPs during Rajya Sabha debate accused
the Prime Minister of not delivering the promised assistance to their
flood-ravaged state and also spoke against the Government in Lok Sabha
on adjournment motion on farmer’s plight. The TDP leaders have also
expressed their reservations against the international commitments of
the Central Government if those do not protect the interest of the
farmers.
Some of the Cabinet Ministers like Ram Vilas
Paswan and others are known to have expressed their reservations against
the Cabinet decision on disinvestment in public sector undertakings
taking the plea that they were not present in the Cabinet meeting.
Keeping in view the mercurial behaviour of
Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee, brow beating actions of Shiva
Sena leaders, arm twisting attitude of TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu and
careless statements of Janata Dal (U) and Samata leaders, it appears
that the helpless Prime Minister is left with no option but to succumb
to the populist demands of his allies even at the cost of the economic
and political interest of the country. His helplessness had therefore,
neither improved his personal image nor stopped the sliding popularity
of the NDA or the BJP.
There is no doubt that in a democracy, there
should be free expression of one’s opinion but this should not
transcend to blackmailing tactics as shown by Mamta’s resignation. The
cardinal principle of coalition politics is collective responsibility.
Differences if any are to be thrashed out in various mechanisms that are
in place within the NDA. But to go public with demands by the partners
outside the mechanism will show the NDA and the prime minister in poor
light.
If the opinion poll mentioned earlier has rated
Vajpayee from good to excellent Prime Minister, it may not be because of
his charismatic leadership but the people under the present political
scenario in the country do not have any better option. Under the present
political situation there is no immediate threat to Vajpayee government,
neither it means that the Prime Minister has strengthened his grip over
his allies and arrested the sliding popularity of his party.
In the recent winter session of Parliament the
opposition leaders openly quarreled over the farm bill and Sonia Gandhi
was not allowed to move the motion by the Samajwadi party leader. With
the opposition in disarray, Vajpayee has time to set his house in order.
His greatest contribution could be in establishing certain norms
to be followed by the coalition partners in the interest of good
governance. After all, politics of coalition is a reality today and will
continue till the compulsions so demand.
1.12.2000
