South Asia Analysis Group  
Papers  

 

Paper no.172

  

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China-India Relations: not independent of US-China relations 

by Rajesh Kumar Mishra


Other state actors view the needs and expectations of US in post cold war era in the international arena with profound interest. More often, the tactical moves and periodic adjustments of the Americans in their foreign and defence policies generate considerable speculations. Especially their relation with China holds significant meaning for the policy-makers of New Delhi. As far as the US-China relation is concerned, even if certain US behaviours are in congruity with their national economic, political or defence matters and do not include India as a party to that, they matter a lot to the South Asian regional environment. Particularly for India one needs a comprehensive understanding of the future US programme and policies towards China.

 In last two decades, American 'non-determination' against the failed pledges of China has created considerable confusion in international arena. Both the sides- China as well as the US, have failed to manifest a definitive long term relation of either as rivals or friends. Their relationship is more of reconciliation and adjustments than mutual appreciation and confidence. In such complex atmosphere, India needs utmost attention and clarity in understanding the upcoming dynamics of Sino - US relations.

 As far as India-US relation is concerned, towards its realisation of the "Common Vision" based on converging grounds and aims, India and America have been heading forward to a new era of friendship and cooperation. Future primary concern is to achieve democracy and establish peace in a world free from terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction. 

At the same time incidentally Sino - US relation has also taken a new turn. Recently two important events took place. First, on 10th October, President Bill Clinton signed the Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) bill to make it into law. And, second, the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, General Henry Shelton visited China in the month of November. Though, the American move reflects the upstaging of its policy of engagement over containment with China, it has long term international ramifications.

 On the surface, a paradox seems to underline these post cold war considerations. On the one hand, despite being aware of Chinese involvement in clandestine missile and nuclear technology supplies to Pakistan, the US is willing for constructive engagement. On the other hand, China has been tactfully translating the past experiences into new opportunities. No doubt, China would best manage the favourable trade turn-over with US to modernise its defence build up against America itself.

 Historically, China is an aggressive and expansionist country. Throughout the cold war period, it kept the then super powers always on tenterhooks by maintaining a perfect balance of terror. It got managed a win-win position through opportunistic alliances. Even after the end of cold war, China has successfully been able to take out more than its due share. Beijing’s ambitious military modernisation programme and its confidence in existing nuclear arsenal provide a significant role in regional and international systems. And its burgeoning emphasis on power play create unease on Indians.

 The Chinese threat is perceived as more imminent and direct to India for various reasons. Primarily the outstanding bilateral disputes between India and China have given rise to China-Pakistan axis against India. The regional adversaries not separately but jointly pose a threat to Indian peace and security. Subsequently, it is catalytic to prospective arms race between India and China too. 

Of late, the collaboration between China and the military regime in Myanmar has put Indian strategic thinkers in dilemma. Especially the information about new Chinese Naval bases warrant the Chinese naval expansion into the Indian Ocean close to India's maritime boundaries. After all, China already has demonstrated its belligerence in 1962.

 Besides, sources reveal that China is believed to have deployed some 125 long range (1700 km or more) nuclear armed ballistic missiles. It is reported that China is having some 150 bomber-deliverable nuclear weapons and 120 tactical nuclear weapons deliverable by short range missiles or artillery. Further, the development of CSS-5 missiles (range 1700 km) is clearly intended to hit targets of adjoining regions of China. Also, policy analysts do not completely rule out Chinese attack against India, such as disarming the so called first strike against India.

 Moreover, on the issue of non-proliferation, both China and USA share a common view regarding Indian achievements. However, international reports project a "hide and seek" behavioral interaction when it comes to their individual maneuverings. 

In the background of such varied threat perceptions, a future American strategy towards India needs overall emphasis on minimizing discrepancy between China's international status and that of India. It should carefully address the India's genuine security concerns vis-à-vis China and Pakistan.

 Certainly, the purpose of US Policy of engagement is to establish a world order according to its needs and expectations. This is also justified by its formidable military and economic strength. But Chinese view this policy as a tool of enlargement of US influence. China vehemently opposes the US hegemony and perceives it as a threat. Potential threats refer to the fact that China alone or along with Russia poses as global adversary to U.S.

 China, while proposing for world peace and development is heavily engaged in modernisation of its strategic build up. Especially the post cold war policies of China mainly resolve around the Sino-US relation and US initiatives. In this way, China while advocating for multi polar world order, desires to become a potential alternative centre of power in any international system. It aspires a position if not equal atleast at par with the U.S. To realise this objective, despite glaring limitations to its technological preparedness , China can also follow some non traditional route. Also, China with its existing weapons has got the guts to throw the gauntlet before U.S.

 In fact, Chinese foreign policy behaviour in past and present is significantly embedded to 'mystery and fear'. To maintain ambiguity in its regional and international politics has always been a concern for others. Paradoxically, it seeks cooperation with the US and at the same time getting prepared to cross swords on the issues involving arms proliferation, Taiwan, Tibet, human rights etc. Therefore in either case of mutual distrust or cooperation between China and the US generate complex dynamics in Chinese regional behaviourial trend. And probably it will take considerably long time when both China and America would unequivocally reciprocate to a genuine constructive engagement.

 In such circumstances it is a matter of concern for India to look closely the developments going around in its favour or otherwise. Actually India is rarely referred directly in Sino-US documentations except on the issue related to non proliferation. Washington may also overlook few South Asian irritants as long as they do not directly affect its own interests. But these so called minor irritants may aggravate in future. Therefore, the configurations in Sino-US relations would substantially influence over the South Asian regional complexities.

In its quest for raising international standing and finding more space for diplomatic maneuvering, India requires a peaceful and cooperative South Asian environment. Mutual misunderstandings between India and China is the biggest impediment in its way toward a healthy Sino-Indian relationship. China desires to remain the sole 'power' state in the Asian region. And the progress in Indian defence and development is seen by China as a potential rising power. In addition, the improvement in US-India relations is viewed with suspicion and apprehension by China.

 Today, amidst a realist and transitional world politics, no Indian foreign policy making could be thought bereft of Chinese intentions and attitude towards India. Especially to foresee any tentative major trend in India-US relations and the South Asian dynamics, one needs an in-depth study into the emerging Sino-US relations. More so, US is needed to adopt a careful and balanced approach towards its relation with China. Caution and modernisation are best suited to deal with complex international challenges. After all, India has a long way to go to convince the world of its neighbourhood policies and compulsions that restrict her otherwise from several constructive engagements.


22.12.2000