AYODHYA - An
agenda for U.P. election
by R.Upadhyay
Since the Indian politics revolves round the power
game, the ongoing and unending discussion on Ayodhya has again
occupied centre stage particularly due to the impending Uttar
Pradesh (UP) Assembly elections. Being a most populous state with
biggest electoral constituency in the country, it has all along been the
focus of electoral politics. The triumph of the political party in
UP was seen synonymous with power in Delhi with the sole exception of
the 1991 Lok Sabha election, when the Congress formed the Government at
centre, even though the BJP won majority (51) of seats in this state.
Out of 11 Prime Ministers since the first Lok Sabha in 1952, seven
including Vajpayee have been from this state.
The BJP reached its commanding position in Parliament only after major
electoral success from UP, which was the main battleground for temple
movement. By winning 52 Lok Sabha seats in 1996 and 57 in 1998
from U.P., the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the
parliament. With Rama temple card, it could attract unqualified support
of 20 % upper castes, a sizeable section of non-yadav OBCs particularly
the Lodh, Kurmi, Gaderias and other marginalised section of them and
anti-Congress middle class voters. Thus, the Ayodhya issue
could help the party in countering the Mandal politics of its opponents
and maintaining dominance in UP and successfully reaching to the seat of
power at the centre. This
strategy however had started giving diminishing returns.
Despite the popular image of the Prime Minister, the BJP suffered
a major set back in UP during the midterm Lok Sabha poll in October
1999, when its performance from this heartland of the party slid down to
only 29. The poor performance of the party in subsequent
by-elections and its humiliating defeat in Panchayat elections in the
state held in July/August this year was a wake up call for the party.
The rise in popularity of the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav,
who succeeded in making some dent in upper caste votes has also, become
a cause for concern for the BJP. With
the gradual slide in the popularity of the party, the prevailing
atmosphere of inertia among its cadres and finding UP slipping out of
its grip, the BJP leadership was under political compulsion to devise
some strategy for the assembly elections in UP.
The assembly election in Uttar Pradesh is scheduled to be held
either by October 2001 or by March 2002. This election is also
crucial for the BJP in general and Vajpayee Government in particular.
Its outcome may determine the direction of the NDA Government at centre.
Though, the possibility of
any threat to Vajpayee Government, even if the BJP loses this election
is remote, it may encourage the anti-BJP forces to unite and initiate
their toppling game at centre. With
the initiative of the CPI (M) to revive the third front and boasting of
Mulayam Singh Yadav that he will topple the Vajpayee Government at
centre within three months if his party comes to power in next Assembly
polls in UP, it has become imperative for the BJP to chalk out a
strategy to counter the challenge of aggressive Mulayam Singh Yadav,
firebrand Mayawati, vindictive Kalyan Singh and the tactical voting of
Muslims against it. How to counter the aggressive caste politics of
Samajwadi Party and infuse enthusiasm among the demoralised party cadres
for assembly elections in UP has become a primary concern for the party.
To mollify the puritans in the party and other constituents of Sangh
Parivar, who were annoyed with the moderation of Vajpayee’s governance
also required some strategy.
Caste plays a major role in the electoral politics in most of the states
in India. The politics of caste based reservations marked the beginning
of the political consolidation of socially backward castes in a group
other than the scheduled castes. Known as other backward castes (OBC),
this group became politically so aggressive in northern India that no
political party dared to confront them. The rise of Laloo Prasad
Yadav in Bihar and Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP was the outcome of the
post-Mandal politics.
Aware of the caste arithmetic in UP with its largest assembly strength
in the country, the BJP picked up Rajnath Singh as most suitable Chief
Minister. Known for his acumen and political skill and also rated as a
tough, upright, and honest leader with soft spoken behaviour and
administrative capability was therefore, the unanimous choice of both
the two top leaders of the party namely Advani and Vajpayee. This was
the first damage control exercise for reviving the support of Rajput
community that constitutes 8% of votes in the state with a view to
counter the challenge of about 9% Yadav voters under the influence of
Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Against the messy equations among the top state leaders of the party,
the smooth change over from Ram Prakash Gupta to Rajnath Singh was a
significant achievement of the BJP leadership. With a promise of
co-operation by all sections in the party, the emergence of Rajnath
Singh as a unanimous leader of the legislative party shows that the
state leaders of the BJP realised the serious political challenge of the
Muslim-Yadav-Rajput combine under the leadership of Mulayam Singh Yadav
and of Dalits particularly the Jatavas under the BSP leader Mayawati.
Though, the BJP managed to arrest the desertion of upper castes, who
constitute over 20 % of state population, including Brahmins 9.2 %,
Rajputs 8%, Bania 2.5 %, Kayasth 1.0 %, Bhumihar 0.1 %, and Tyagi and
Khatri 0.1 % each - it is not sufficient to win election. Without
some support of non-Yadav backwards and non-Jatav scheduled castes, who
constitute about 35 % and 10 % of voters respectively, the BJP cannot
hope to succeed in the election.
After the expulsion of Kalyan Singh from the BJP, the party had no
recognised leader of the backwards.
Re-induction of Ms Uma Bharati, a firebrand orator, who belongs
to the same community of Kalyan Singh - in Union Cabinet appears to be
the party's strategy to counter his aggressive propaganda against the
BJP. It was also an attempt to placate the non-Yadav backwards.
Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, who has come out of Janata Dal (U) and
formed a new party Jana Shakti, may make a dent in non-Jatav Dalit
votes, which will suit the BJP.
In the backdrop of the poll scenario and caste arithmetic in UP, when
the Congress demanded the resignation of three charge sheeted Union
Ministers in Babri Mosque demolition case by halting the proceedings of
parliament, Vajpayee was left with no option but to reject the demand
and defend his cabinet colleagues. In the process he also
explained his stand on Ayodhya outside the floor of the House. His
statement that Ayodhya was an "expression of national
sentiments" followed by uproar and discussion in parliament again
brought back the issue to the center stage of electoral politics.
Whether the opposition could derive any electoral mileage from the
Muslim community may be a debatable issue, but by bringing the Ayodhya
issue again to the political focus they could at least energise the
forces of Hindutva. The BJP cadres are happy that this statement
of Vajpayee may also counter the Mandal politics of Mulayam Singh Yadav
and attract some sizeable section of the marginalised non-Yadav
backwards towards the party.
As far as Congress is concerned, the party had played its own political
game by raising Ayodhya issue. The moderation theory of the BJP followed
by the conciliatory approach of its President towards Muslims, Advani's
effort to shed his hard liner image with his visit to Dargah Sharif in
Ajmer, and Government announcement of Ramzan ceasefire in Kashmir
created panic in the Congress. Thus, with an eye on 17.33% of
Muslim votes in UP, it challenged the BJP in latter's playground by
initiating discussion on the anniversary of the demolition of Babri
Mosque. Putting the BJP on
dock on Ayodhya issue and demanding resignation of three Union Ministers
namely L.K.Advani, M.M.Joshi and Ms. Uma Bharati, the Congress tried to
become a champion for the cause of the Muslims. But it proved
counter productive for the party. The Samajwadi Party, which also
joined the issue along with other opposition parties was however, more
aggressive against the Congress on this issue than the BJP. The
BSP by abstaining from voting on Ayodhya issue in Parliament tried to
avoid the issue, which may help the BJP in UP election. The other
opposition parties do not have much stake in UP.
The debate on Ayodhya brought
back the events relating to unlocking of the temple and Shilanyas during
the Congress regime to the memory of the Muslims. The main
loser in the debate therefore, is the Congress.
The party was found trapped in its own web. The
controversial statement of Vajpayee on Ayodhya on the other hand helped
the BJP in uniting the forces of Hindutva and to counter the aggressive
caste politics of the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP of
Mayawati/Kansi Ram in UP elections.
The entire political game on Ayodhya initiated by the Congress and
followed up by the opposition was to expose the liberal image of
Vajpayee in view of the forthcoming UP election. It may be
too early to say whether this aim has been achieved, but if any party
could gain out of this unending debate, it is only the BJP. The
entire Muslim community on the other hand remained a helpless spectator
in watching the political game played by the so-called champions of its
interest. A Muslim MP as quoted in Pioneer in its issue dated
December 17, 2000 by Chandan Mitra was perhaps right, when he said,
"This (debate) had only harmed the Muslims, for whenever such
issues are revived, attitudes harden."
21.12. 2000
