DIALOGUE WITH BUSH ADMINISTRATION: Points
to be highlighted
by B.Raman
While the portions of the election platform (manifesto) of Mr.George
Bush (Jr), the US President-elect, on his opposition to the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) had received wide attention in
India, other portions relating to China, India, Pakistan, proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), terrorism and cyber terrorism have
not received in India the attention they deserved. These have been
extracted from the manifesto in the Annexure to this paper.
The salient points of interest to
India are:
* "Republicans support
China's accession into the World Trade Organization, but this will not
be a substitute for, or lessen the resolve of, our pursuit of improved
human rights and an end to proliferation of dangerous technologies by
China.
* "A new Republican
government will understand the importance of China but not place China
at the center of its Asia policy.
* "Attention to the fate
of East Asia should not obscure American attention to the future of
South Asia. India is emerging as one of the great democracies of the
twenty-first century. Soon it will be the world's most populous state.
India is now redefining its identity and future strategy. The United
States should engage India, respecting its great multicultural
achievements and encouraging Indian choices for a more open world.
Mindful of its longstanding relationship with Pakistan, the United
States will place a priority on the secure, stable development of this
volatile region where adversaries now face each other with nuclear
arsenals.
* "Collaborating with the
Congress, a Republican administration will engage the Latin American
and the Asia-Pacific nations, including a new dialogue with India,
about political economy and free trade.
* "A generation of
American efforts to slow proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
has unraveled as first India and Pakistan set off their nuclear bombs,
then Iraq defied the international community.
* "Ballistic missiles and
weapons of mass destruction threaten the world's future. America is
currently without defense against these threats. The administration's
failure to guard America's nuclear secrets is allowing China to
modernize its ballistic missile force, thereby increasing the threat
to our country and to our allies. The theft of vital nuclear secrets
by China represents one of the greatest security defeats in the
history of the United States. The next Republican President will
protect our nuclear secrets and aggressively implement a sweeping
reorganization of our nuclear weapons program.
* "America is now unable
to counter the rampant proliferation of nuclear, biological, and
chemical weapons and their missile delivery systems around the world.
* "A new Republican
President will renew America's faltering fight against the contagious
spread of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, as well as their
means of delivery. The weak leadership and neglect of the
administration have allowed America's intelligence capabilities,
including space based systems, to atrophy, resulting in repeated
proliferation surprises such as Iraq's renewed chemical and biological
weapons programs, India's nuclear weapon test, and North Korea's test
of a three-stage ballistic missile. Again in a partnership with the
Congress, a new Republican administration will give the intelligence
community the leadership, resources, and operational latitude it
requires.
* "The new Republican President
will deploy a national missile defense for reasons of national
security; but he will also do so because there is a moral imperative
involved: The American people deserve to be protected. It is the
President's constitutional obligation.
* "Many established
terrorist groups faded away in the 1990s after the Cold War ended. But
the decade also witnessed a series of enormously destructive attacks
against America. Increasingly, terrorists seem to be motivated by
amorphous religious causes or simple hatred of America rather than by
specific political aims. Terrorism crosses borders easily and
frequently, including U.S. borders, and cannot easily be categorized
as either domestic or international.
* "Republicans support a
response to terrorism that is resolute but not impulsive. The most
likely highly destructive terrorist attack remains a large bomb hidden
in a car or truck. Yet, as with the rest of our defense posture, we
must prepare for the most dangerous threats as well as the most likely
ones. Therefore the United States must be extremely vigilant about the
possibility that future terrorists might use weapons of mass
destruction, which are increasingly available and present an
unprecedented threat to America. In many instances the military will
have to rethink its traditional doctrine and begin to focus on
counterterrorism, human intelligence gathering, and unconventional
warfare.
* "Republicans endorse
the four principles of U.S. counterterrorism policy that were laid
down originally by Vice President George Bush's Commission on
Combating Terrorism in 1985. First, we will make no concessions to
terrorists. Giving in simply encourages future terrorist actions and
debases America's power and moral authority. Second, we will isolate,
pressure, and punish the state sponsors of terrorism. Third, we will
bring individual terrorists to justice. Past and potential terrorists
will know that America will never stop hunting them. Fourth, we will
provide assistance to other governments combating terrorism. Fighting
international terrorism requires international collaboration. Once
again, allies matter.
* "Nowhere has the
administration been more timid in protecting America's national
interests than in cyberspace. Americans have recently glimpsed the
full vulnerability of their information systems to penetration and
massive disruption by amateurs. A sophisticated terrorist or adversary
government could potentially cripple a critical U.S. infrastructure,
such as the electrical grid or a military logistics system, in time of
crisis. A new Republican government will work closely with our
international partners and the private sector to conceive and
implement a viable strategy for reducing America's vulnerability to
the spectrum of cyber threats, from the adolescent hacker launching a
contagious computer virus to the most advanced threat of strategic
information warfare."
From a perusal of the pronouncements
in the manifesto, the following concerns of the incoming US Administration
stand out:
* China's strengthening its
nuclear and missile capabilities through technology thefts (espionage)
in the US and its role as the proliferator of dangerous technologies
to other countries. While the manifesto refrains from naming China's
proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies to Pakistan,
Ms.Condoleeza Rice, Mr.Bush's National Security Adviser-designate, has
been forthright on this. She wrote in the "Foreign Affairs"
of January-February, 2000:"We should never be afraid to confront
Beijing when our interests collide….. China resents the role of the
United States in the Asia-Pacific region. This means that China is not
a "status quo" power but one that would like to alter Asia's
balance of power in its own favor. That alone makes it a strategic
competitor, not the "strategic partner" the Clinton
administration once called it. Add to this China's record of
cooperation with Iran and Pakistan in the proliferation of
ballistic-missile technology, and the security problem is obvious.
China will do what it can to enhance its position, whether by stealing
nuclear secrets or by trying to intimidate Taiwan."
* The new forms of terrorism,
increasingly motivated by amorphous religious causes and/or sheer
hatred and the ability of these terrorists to cross borders easily,
with the distinction between domestic and international terrorism
getting blurred. The dangers of these terrorists acquiring weapons of
mass destruction. The need to isolate, pressure and punish the
state-sponsors of terrorism and the importance of allies in the combat
against terrorism.
* The importance of
international co-operation against cyber terrorism.
In India's dialogue with the new
administration before it assumes office on January 20,2001, and
thereafter, it needs to be highlighted that these three issues are of
equal concern to India too and, hence, could form the basis of a
developing relationship to meet these threats jointly through sharing of
intelligence, insights, analyses and assessments and through joint
studies of all developments in this regard.
A beginning in this regard was already
made under the Clinton administration through the setting up of a Joint
Working Group. Its charter has to be jointly defined more clearly to
cover not only these three major areas of concern, but also
narco-terrorism, which has, surprisingly, received little attention in
the manifesto.
The US Administration is
well-informed, through its intelligence community, on China's
clandestine supply of nuclear and missile technologies and North Korea's
clandestine supply of missile technology to Pakistan. It was the father
of the President-elect, who invoked the Pressler Amendment against
Pakistan in October, 1990, and initiated action against Pakistan and
China for violations of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR),
after repeated warnings on this subject conveyed to Beijing through
Mr.James Baker, his Secretary of State, failed to stop the clandestine
supply. Despite strong evidence reportedly produced by the US
intelligence community on continued violations by Pakistan and China,
the Clinton Administration avoided strong action against China under
some pretext or the other.
India should share with the incoming
administration its concerns over the likelihood of the leakage of these
technologies into the hands of jehadi organisations based in Pakistan
and abroad. In this connection, the following needs to be highlighted:
Since the beginning of 1999, the
importance of the Ummah possessing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has
become an important item of their debate, whether it be in inner-party
deliberations, during religious discourses in the mosques and their
madrasas or in the conventions of their Ulema. The issue was first
raised by Osama bin Laden in two interviews and it has subsequently been
picked up by others. During this debate, they have been saying that:
* Allah has ordained that the
Muslims should acquire whatever weapon capability they needed for
their jehad against the "infidels". It is their religious
duty to acquire WMD.
* The nuclear and missile
capability, which Pakistan has, belongs to the Ummah and not just to
the State of Pakistan. It is the religious duty of the Pakistani
leadership to further develop and strengthen this capability and to
place it at the disposal of the Ummah.
* It would be a betrayal of
the Ummah for Pakistan to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT) and adhere to the nuclear and missile export control regimes.
* Pakistan has a religious
obligation to share its technologies with and to export them to other
Muslim countries, which may need them.
The Government of India should
regularly and continuously share with the incoming administration
details of all pronouncements in this regard by the jehadi
organisations.
The Pakistan-based jehadi groups and
their overseas supporters, including some in the US, have been very
active in the cyber space in support of their jehadi activities. Of the
10 most active hacker groups of the world, two are of persons of
Pakistani origin. Their activities could pose a serious threat to the
sensitive infrastructure security of not only India, but also the US.
There, is, therefore an urgent need for joint monitoring of the
activities of these groups by India and the US in order to neutralise
them.
The role played by the heroin money in
sustaining not only jehadi terrorism, but also the Pakistani economy
should also be brought to the notice of the incoming US administration.
Our intelligence agencies should be
given the priority task of monitoring all developments in regard to
these three concerns, collating and analysing the collected information
and sharing them in a credible form with US officials through the Joint
Working Group as well as through any other available channel.
Improvement of their capability for monitoring the activities of jehadi
cyber groups needs urgent attention.
(22-12-00)
(The writer is Additional Secretary
(retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director,
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: corde@vsnl.com)
ANNEXURE: EXTRACTS FROM THE
ELECTION PLATFORM OF MR. GEORGE BUSH
"America's key challenge in Asia
is the People's Republic of China. China is not a free society. The
Chinese government represses political expression at home and unsettles
neighbors abroad. It stifles freedom of religion and proliferates
weapons of mass destruction.
"Yet China is a country in
transition, all the more reason for the policies of the United States to
be firm and steady. America will welcome the advent of a free and
prosperous China. Conflict is not inevitable, and the United States
offers no threat to China.
"Republicans support China's
accession into the World Trade Organization, but this will not be a
substitute for, or lessen the resolve of, our pursuit of improved human
rights and an end to proliferation of dangerous technologies by China.
"China is a strategic competitor
of the United States, not a strategic partner. We will deal with China
without ill will, but also without illusions. A new Republican
government will understand the importance of China but not place China
at the center of its Asia policy.
"A Republican President will
honor our promises to the people of Taiwan, a longstanding friend of the
United States and a genuine democracy. Only months ago the people of
Taiwan chose a new President in free and fair elections. Taiwan deserves
America's strong support, including the timely sale of defensive arms to
enhance Taiwan's security. In recognition of its growing importance in
the global economy, we support Taiwan's accession to the World Trade
Organization, as well as its participation in the World Health
Organization and other multilateral institutions.
"Attention to the fate of East
Asia should not obscure American attention to the future of South Asia.
India is emerging as one of the great democracies of the twenty-first
century. Soon it will be the world's most populous state. India is now
redefining its identity and future strategy. The United States should
engage India, respecting its great multicultural achievements and
encouraging Indian choices for a more open world. Mindful of its
longstanding relationship with Pakistan, the United States will place a
priority on the secure, stable development of this volatile region where
adversaries now face each other with nuclear arsenals.
"Under the policies of the
present administration, many markets remain closed and U.S. trade
deficits keep rising. New economic structures are needed to combine
regional agreements with the development of global rules for opening the
world economy. Collaborating with the Congress, a Republican
administration will engage the Latin American and the Asia-Pacific
nations, including a new dialogue with India, about political economy
and free trade.
"A new Republican President will
renew America's faltering fight against the contagious spread of
nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, as well as their means of
delivery. The weak leadership and neglect of the administration have
allowed America's intelligence capabilities, including space based
systems, to atrophy, resulting in repeated proliferation surprises such
as Iraq's renewed chemical and biological weapons programs, India's
nuclear weapon test, and North Korea's test of a three-stage ballistic
missile. Again in a partnership with the Congress, a new Republican
administration will give the intelligence community the leadership,
resources, and operational latitude it requires.
"A generation of American efforts
to slow proliferation of weapons of mass destruction has unraveled as
first India and Pakistan set off their nuclear bombs, then Iraq defied
the international community. Token air strikes against Iraq could not
long mask the collapse of an inspection regime that had until then at
least kept an ambitious, murderous tyrant from acquiring additional
nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.
"Ballistic missiles and weapons
of mass destruction threaten the world's future. America is currently
without defense against these threats. The administration's failure to
guard America's nuclear secrets is allowing China to modernize its
ballistic missile force, thereby increasing the threat to our country
and to our allies. The theft of vital nuclear secrets by China
represents one of the greatest security defeats in the history of the
United States. The next Republican President will protect our nuclear
secrets and aggressively implement a sweeping reorganization of our
nuclear weapons program.
"Over two dozen countries have
ballistic missiles today. A number of them, including North Korea, will
be capable of striking the United States within a few years, and with
little warning. America is now unable to counter the rampant
proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and their
missile delivery systems around the world.
"The response of the current
administration has been anachronistic and politicized. Stuck in the
mindset and agreements of the Cold War and immune to fresh ideas, the
administration has not developed a sensible strategy that responds to
the emerging missile threat. They have no adequate plan for how they
will defend America and its allies. Visionary leadership, not the
present delay and prevarication, is urgently needed for America to be
ready for the future. The new Republican President will deploy a
national missile defense for reasons of national security; but he will
also do so because there is a moral imperative involved: The American
people deserve to be protected. It is the President's constitutional
obligation.
"America must deploy effective
missile defenses, based on an evaluation of the best available options,
including sea-based, at the earliest possible date. These defenses must
be designed to protect all 50 states, America's deployed forces
overseas, and our friends and allies in the fellowship of freedom
against missile attacks by outlaw states or accidental launches.
"America faces a new and rapidly
evolving threat from terrorism and international crime. Meeting this
threat requires not just new measures, but also consistent policies and
determination from America's leaders.
"Many established terrorist
groups faded away in the 1990s after the Cold War ended. But the decade
also witnessed a series of enormously destructive attacks against
America. Increasingly, terrorists seem to be motivated by amorphous
religious causes or simple hatred of America rather than by specific
political aims. Terrorism crosses borders easily and frequently,
including U.S. borders, and cannot easily be categorized as either
domestic or international.
"Republicans support a response
to terrorism that is resolute but not impulsive. The most likely highly
destructive terrorist attack remains a large bomb hidden in a car or
truck. Yet, as with the rest of our defense posture, we must prepare for
the most dangerous threats as well as the most likely ones. Therefore
the United States must be extremely vigilant about the possibility that
future terrorists might use weapons of mass destruction, which are
increasingly available and present an unprecedented threat to America.
In many instances the military will have to rethink it traditional
doctrine and begin to focus on counterterrorism, human intelligence
gathering, and unconventional warfare.
"Republicans endorse the four
principles of U.S. counterterrorism policy that were laid down
originally by Vice President George Bush's Commission on Combating
Terrorism in 1985. First, we will make no concessions to terrorists.
Giving in simply encourages future terrorist actions and debases
America's power and moral authority. Second, we will isolate, pressure,
and punish the state sponsors of terrorism. Third, we will bring
individual terrorists to justice. Past and potential terrorists will
know that America will never stop hunting them. Fourth, we will provide
assistance to other governments combating terrorism. Fighting
international terrorism requires international collaboration. Once
again, allies matter.
"Republicans in Congress have led
the way in building the domestic preparedness programs to train and
equip local, state, and federal response personnel to deal with
terrorist dangers in America. The administration has not offered clear
leadership over these programs. They remain scattered across many
agencies, uncoordinated and poorly managed. We will streamline and
improve the federal coordination of the domestic emergency preparedness
programs.
"We will ensure that federal law
enforcement agencies have every lawful resource and authority they
require to combat international organized crime. A Republican
administration will work to improve international cooperation against
all forms of cross-border criminality, especially the burgeoning threat
of cyber-crime that threatens the vitality of American industries as
diverse as aerospace and entertainment.
"Nowhere has the administration
been more timid in protecting America's national interests than in
cyberspace. Americans have recently glimpsed the full vulnerability of
their information systems to penetration and massive disruption by
amateurs. A sophisticated terrorist or adversary government could
potentially cripple a critical U.S. infrastructure, such as the
electrical grid or a military logistics system, in time of crisis. A new
Republican government will work closely with our international partners
and the private sector to conceive and implement a viable strategy for
reducing America's vulnerability to the spectrum of cyber threats, from
the adolescent hacker launching a contagious computer virus to the most
advanced threat of strategic information warfare."
