South Asia Analysis Group  
Papers  

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Paper no. 176

 

INDIA’S  POLICY – looking eastward

by C.S.Kuppuswamy

With   India’s  obsession  towards Pakistan and with its preoccupations with China, the South East Asian region did not figure much in its foreign policy till recently.   Some political analysts point out that of late, India has started taking interest in this region more with a view to balance China in the region. India in the short term cannot achieve this aim as China has entrenched itself deeply in most of these countries over a period of time with a  long   term perspective.  With NAM’s credibility   at its lowest the non-alignment can no longer be the backbone of  the policy.  India’s perceptions should go beyond the confines of  SAARC  if it were to reap the benefits out of the economic potential of this region and to establish itself as a major power to promote peace and stability in this region.

India and ASEAN

India’s attitude towards ASEAN during the early years was ambivalent, but not hostile. The Indian leadership viewed ASEAN as an American “imperialist surrogate” while ASEAN dubbed India as “ the surrogate of the Soviet Union”. The signing of the Friendship Treaty with the Soviets, India’s stand on  Afghanistan  and India’s recognition of  Hang Samrin govt in 1981  -- all these led to estrangement between India and ASEAN.  India’s decision not to participate as a dialogue partner in 1980 was a further setback.  The expansion of the Indian Navy in the early  ‘90s and the military assistance provided to Maldives had led to adverse propaganda in Australia and ASEAN by portraying India to be entertaining a hegemonistic design on South  East Asia. The Indian Navy held joint Naval exercises with Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore which contributed for a better understanding of the realities and allayed the concerns of the ASEAN on the Indian Naval expansion. It is only after the collapse of the Soviet Republic,  India’s efforts to improve relations with ASEAN started  materialising.

 Indo-ASEAN trade and investment ties have grown rapidly in the 1990s.  The investments from ASEAN countries steadily rose to nearly 15% of the  total approved  investments in India in 1995.   In 1997, two-way  trade was valued at over $ 7 billion.  According to India investment center statistics Indian joint ventures in ASEAN in 1996 were 118 (Indonesia 18,  Malaysia  39,  Singapore 37, and Thailand 24) with 9 more under implementation.

 “Look-East” Policy 

The look-East  policy   is  believed to have been formulated and initiated by the MEA in 1991.India became a  sectoral   partner of ASEAN in late 1991 in the core sectors of trade, investment and tourism.  It was however the visit of the Prime minister to Jakarta in Oct ’92 for the NAM summit which provided an opportunity for discussions with leaders of some of the ASEAN nations. Sultan of Brunei visited India in end ’92 and the two countries established full diplomatic relations.  Sharad  Pawar the then defence minister visited Malaysia in Feb ’93 and the two countries signed a defence related MoU.  An ASEAN delegation led by its Secretary General  Dato Ajit singh was in India in March ’93  paving the way for improvement of relations with the ASEAN.  The Indian PM visited Indonesia (1992), Thailand (1993), Vietnam and Singapore ( 1994) and Malaysia (1995).  India was eventually upgraded as a  full dialogue partner from its earlier status of a sectoral partner, in the fifth ASEAN summit in Bangkok in Dec.1995. The status of a full dialogue partner helped India to press home its claim to membership of the  ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).

 In furtherance of this policy, India has started interacting with some of the nations of this region on a high note.  Some of the recent incidents in this context are: 

*  Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar was in India in Oct 2000 breaking  a 15 year hiatus since the last visit of a Malaysian foreign minister. The two sides reviewed  defence cooperation , agreed on more flights to India and discussed ways and means of improving the relations.

*  The Vice-Chairman of Myanmar’s ruling State Peace and Development Council visited India in Nov 2000.  Much bonhomie was displayed by the Indian Government and a number of  agreements were signed. The reversal of the Indian policy in improving the relations of the military junta was justified on grounds of “national interests”.

*  President K.R.Narayanan visited Singapore (Nov 10-13, 2000).  The last visit by an Indian President was by V.V.Giri in 1971.  The visit though heavy in symbolism, has been substantive not only in reiterating the foreign policy thrust but served to highlight the emergence of India as a “software power”. 

ASEAN- Regional forum (ARF)

By virtue of its size and geographical location, India could not be ignored in any grouping concerned with Asian security. However it was in July 1996 when India was invited to join the ARF.  India’s inclusion in ARF was hailed as a major diplomatic  achievement  and a welcome and logical extension of its look-East policy.  The ARF comprises Australia, China, Canada, the European union, Japan, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Russia, South Korea, the United States, the ten ASEAN countries and India.  North Korea joined this forum in July 2000. The entry into ARF will help India in its role in promoting peace and stability in the region as well as to put India on par with the Western nations and China vis-à-vis regional security.  While the dialogue partner status in ASEAN has enabled India to improve its world trade, the ARF has turned out to be a sympathetic forum to express its security concerns.

 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation  (APEC)

 The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation council  was  inaugurated  in 1989 with the then six members of ASEAN, USA, Canada, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia with the main aim of free trade and economic development among the member states.   By virtue of its size and economic  potential  India merits membership in the forum.  However India had not made any serious efforts in this regard prior to becoming a dialogue partner of ASEAN and a member of the ARF.  If India has not  succeeded  till date in securing membership of this forum or in the Asia-Europe meeting (ASEM), it is  a sign of ASEAN’s waning interest in India due to the pace of the economic reforms, lack of consistency in policies, indecisive and lethargic bureaucracy and the monster of corruption.

 ASEAN+3

In the Manila informal summit of ASEAN in Nov ’99, it was agreed that the leaders of ASEAN, China,  Japan and South Korea would meet regularly  (every year) and this group was named as ASEAN+3.  In its efforts to strengthen its look-east policy, India made a deliberate attempt to join this grouping.  Jaswant Singh the external affairs minister visited Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand  and  had talks with its leaders while  President  K.R.Narayanan was in Singapore on an official visit.  Incidentally a summit meeting of this grouping was held at Singapore at that time (Nov 2000). However China thwarted this effort by vetoing the proposal made by Singapore at this summit   to include India into this group presumably as China wants ASEAN to be its close preserve.

 BIMSTEC

In 1997 Bangladesh,  India , Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand came together to form an economic association called BIMSTEC linking the littoral states of Bay of Bengal.  This economic grouping aims at promoting rapid economic cooperation between members in key areas like trade, investment, tourism, fisheries, agriculture, transportation and human resources development.  It will be in India’s interest to take the lead and to pave the way for BIMSTEC to emerge as a free trade association. 

Mekong Ganga Cooperation Project

The project was announced by the foreign ministers of the six nations involved in the project at the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM)   at Bangkok in July 2000. The six nations involved are  India , Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and  Vietnam.  Except for India the rest are member nations of ASEAN.  The enthusiasm and tact exhibited by Jaswant Singh, the foreign minister in this  project  substantiates the intentions of the government in furthering its look-east policy and to optimise the benefits.     After  BIMSTEC,  this is India’s next major cooperative venture in the SEA region.   India has the advantage of excellent relations with the three nations,  except perhaps Thailand.  With the recent  warming up of relations with the military junta of Myanmar, overland trade via Myanmar to these MGC countries would be a welcome boost to our trade and industry. Though the project is at its nascent stage, it provides a great opportunity for India to further improve the relations with the other member countries in tourism, communications and transport linkages.  The Trans-Asian Highway (an old proposal of ESCAP) may become a reality.   THE MGC ministerial  level  meetings  will be held every year in July along with the ASEAN ministerial meetings and Post Ministerial Conferences.  The next meeting will be in Hanoi in July 2001 under the Chairmanship of  Myanmar.  As it has been seen,  India has been good at drafting and announcing agreements but poor in pursuing them due to its proverbial bureaucratic  neglect.

 Conclusion

Some of the merits, apprehensions and observations of this look-east policy as currently pursued by India are:

* India’s major apprehension is that the ARF may be utilised by US and Russia to pressurise India to sign the CTBT.

          *   India may be able to gain more international support
           for its stand on Kashmir.           

* This will help India’s role in promoting peace and stability in the region and at the same time put India on par with the Western nations and China vis-à-vis regional security.

 * At this stage when the NAM has been rendered passive,   if not ineffective, it is essential for India to become part of these fora of the SEA region outside the UN aegis.

*  The current linkages with  ASEAN and ARF can be used as a springboard to the Asia Pacific region, NAFTA and other important world trade groupings.

 *  If India is keen to vigorously pursue this policy and gain by it, it has to exhibit greater sensitivity to security concerns of the SEA countries and be economically more aggressive.

 *  While the improvement of bilateral relations with independent nations of this region are appreciable, the impact made by India at the regional group meetings  (ASEAN ministerial meetings, Post Ministerial  Conferences  and the ARF) is negligible.

 

             27.12.2000