Paper no. 2090

09.01.2007

RUSSIA ASSERTS ITS RESURGENT STRATEGIC AUTONOMY

By Dr. Subhash Kapila 

Introductory Observations 

Russia asserted its resurgent strategic autonomy in a highly symbolic manner in September 2006 when President Putin sat down at the Paris Summit with the French President and the German Chancellor.  Publicly, it was given out that the Paris Summit focused on Russia’s energy supplies to Western Europe and European energy security.  In contemporary international affairs, energy supplies and energy security are no longer economic matters but foreign policy and strategic tools.  Obviously, the focus had to be on Russia’s strategic role in European affairs and its spillover effects in other strategic regions.

Russia was therefore no longer down and out as Western observers had got used to believe in the post Cold War era.  This author had consistently maintained that even when Russia was economically down, it was not strategically out.  Even with a run-down economy Russia continued as the only nation with strategic strength and capabilities to reach the United States. 

A year ago, this author in a paper entitled: “Russia’s Foreign Policy in a Resurgent Mode: An Analysis” (SAAG http://www.saag.org/papers17/paper1682.html) had laid out the contours of Russian foreign policy in strategic regions across the globe in a bid to regain its traditional influence.  It seems that its foreign policy strategies have worked. 

Western observers in the last couple of months have conceded that Russia’s resurgence to regain its strategic autonomy is very much in place and that President Putin’s earlier policy of working and co-operating with USA was now dissolving and fading away.

This paper attempts to examine Russia’s resurgence as an “independent power centre” in global affairs under the following heads: 

  • Russia’s Strategic Resurgence: The Contributory Factors
  • Russia’s Declaratory Policy on Resurgence.
  • Russia-China Strategic Nexus
  • Russia’s Strategic & Military Modernization
  • Russia’s Energy Resources: A Foreign Policy and Strategic Leverage
  • Russia Regains Control Over the Asian Heartland
  • Russia’s Pressure Points Against the United States
  • Russia’s Resurgence: The Future Prospects

Russia’s Strategic Resurgence: The Contributory Factors 

Russia’s strategic resurgence arises from the cumulative effect of a host of international and domestic factors which fortuitously converged in Russia’s favor.  In terms of international factors which have contributed towards Russian strategic resurgence, the following can be listed: 

  • United States imperial over stretch in its military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq
  • United States policy establishment not according equitable status to Russia in global affairs
  • NATO’s eastward expansion impinging on Russia’s strategic sensitivities
  • United States strategic intrusions in the Central Asian Republics
  • United States – inspired “Colour Revolutions” on Russia’s Western peripheries
  • Phenomenal rise in international energy prices

Many observers argue that Russia was becoming conscious to US neo-cons plans to “de-construct Russia” in a manner that it could not re-emerge as a strategic challenger to USA in global affairs.  They further argue that Gulf War II against Iraq in 2003 had less to do with Saddam Hussain, his WMDs and Al Qaeda links.  The invasion of Iraq they maintain was part of an over-all strategy to “de-construct Russia”. 

Be as it may, the discernible fact is that following 2003, President Putin put aside his “partnership strategy” with USA and moved towards putting Russia’s resurgence in sharper contours. 

In terms of domestic contributory factors leading to Russia’s resurgence the following can be considered: 

  • President Putin’s resolute and dynamic leadership which was in marked contrast to his two predecessors.
  • President Putin’s re-kindling of Russian nationalism
  • President Putin’s strong handling of the Russian economy and liquidating the Russian oligarchs who had risen to power in the Yeltsin era and many enjoyed Western patronage.  In the Putin regime, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves were built up to over $ 100 billion.
  • Russia’s growing oil revenues due to rise in international oil process.

Russia’s Declaratory Policy on Resurgence 

President Putin’s “State of the Federation” address on May 10, 2006 can be construed as a declaratory policy on Russia’s resurgence.  It was a long address which covered a wide spectrum of how states mature, the need for increasing Russia’s birth rate, Russia’s military modernization and a blue print for the next five to ten years. 

Of strategic import in terms of goals for Russia’s resurgence, they seem to have been spelt out as under: 

  • Russia’s intentions to re-build its resources and capabilities to emerge as a credible counter-weight to the United States.
  • Russia must strategize to emerge as an autonomous international power
  • United States unbridled influence and use of power needs to be limited

The above goals seem to have already being followed by Russia in a pro-active manner post-2003. 

Russia-China Strategic Nexus 

It would be appropriate to insert here in this examination the Russia-China strategic nexus that has emerged more sharply in recent years.  It could also be construed as a major contributory factor towards Russia’s resurgence. 

Russia and China today enjoy a convergence of mutuality of interests strategically, politically and economically.  This has manifested itself in the strengthening of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and adding military contours to it. 

Politically, China had teamed up with Russia to thwart American plans on Iran and North Korea. 

With China’s burgeoning demand for energy resources which Russia is in a position to provide by virtue of its proximity and abundance, Russia’s growing strategic resurgence is likely to be assured of Chinese support for a long time to come. 

Russia’s Strategic and Military Modernization 

The abundance of oil revenues added by a pick-up in Russian arms exports (World’s second largest last year) has fuelled in the last two years the modernization of strategic and conventional military power.  Russia has accorded priority to introduction of new strategic nuclear assets and submarines. 

It is also offering advanced technology weapon systems on the world market.  China and India continue to be the leading customers. 

In terms of strategic resurgence, Russia can now be expected to make up the shortfalls in its strategic assets of earlier years.  Strategically therefore, Russia is no longer at a disadvantage in comparison with the United States. 

It also needs to be remembered that Russia no longer being in an imperial overstretch of yester years would be able to pack more punch due to reduced strategic commitments.


Russia’s Energy Resources: A Foreign Policy and Strategic Leverage 

Russia possesses the world’s largest reserves of natural gas and has the world’s sixth largest reserves of oil.  Due to low oil prices in the past nearly half of its energy reserves lie untapped so far.  These resources have provided Russia with a tremendous foreign policy and strategic leverage.  Russia in the last year had used this leverage to great effect. 

Russia has used this to great effect in Europe and with devastating effect against its former Soviet republics on its periphery falling prey to US-inspired “colour revolutions”.  They have been asked to pay market rates for energy as opposed to earlier subsidized rates. 

Russia supplies more than 25% of Europe’s natural gas supplies.  At the Paris Summit Russia held out promises of increased supplies to France and Germany from new fields, new oil terminal on the Baltic and even a possible new under-sea pipe-line. 

Russia’s contribution to Europe’s energy security would entail a corresponding European sensitivity to Russian strategic and political sensitivities, as opposed to their trans-Atlantic alliances commitments  

Russia enjoys this leverage on its Pacific seaboard in relation to China and Japan arising from its trans-Siberian pipelines and the Sakhalin Island oil deposits.  

This leverage has been forcefully used against US oil companies on charges of environmental disregard. The US companies are being forced to re-negotiate their contracts won during the Yeltsin era by paying billions of dollars in fines. 

With the prices of oil unlikely to fall to $30.40 per barrel level, Russian’s resurgence is assured by its sizeable oil deposits and so also its use as a foreign policy and strategic leverage  

Russia Regains Control Over the Asian Heartland  

The United States was able to obtain a military and political presence in the Central Asian Republics for its military intervention in Afghanistan following 9/11.  Russia demurred with this US military presence in the Asian heartland and its under-belly on the understanding that the United States would enlarge operations of its coalition against international terrorism to Chechenya also.  The Russians soon realized that this was not to be and that USA under strong Islamic nations influence would be against Russian operations against the Islamic rebels in Chechenya. China too was similarly alarmed by US double standards in relation to Xinjiang Islamic rebels. 

In brief the impetus given by Russia and China to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) with particular reference to Central Asia was impelled by a desire to roll-back US military presence from the Asian heartland. Uzbekistan asked the Americans to leave and the SCO called for a fixed time-table for withdrawal of all US Forces from the region. 

With growing resurgence of Russia and its traditional sway over the Central Asian Republics, it would be unrealistic to expect United States to retain a presence in the region against opposition from Russia as a continental power. 

Russia’s Pressure Points Against the United States 

Russia’s growing strategic resurgence would impart to it capability to increase its strategic pressure points against United States strategic aim to achieve “full-spectrum dominance” Russia’s opposition to United States unilateral moves against nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea are the first indications in this direction. 

Syria which is in American cross-hairs for not doing enough to control ingress of Sunni rebels into Iraq continues to receive Russian military hardware including missiles  

Russia continues to construct the Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran, much to the American dislike. 

In East Asia and Central Asia the Russia-China strategic nexus along with the over-arching SCO can be deemed as a major Russian strategic pressure point against the United States. 

Russia’s Resurgence: The Future Prospects 

On present indicators there are no reasons to suspect that the Russian strategic resurgence is a short term affair and that it is likely to last only till the oil prices are high. A strong dip in international oil prices can be expected to slow down the pace of Russian resurgence but not liquidate it altogether.  

Russian resurgence is not only energy-centric driven.  It is also driven by its expanding arms sales, the strategic congruence of Russian-China strategic interests and the prevailing international strategic situation which is not at all favorable to the United States which is the only power capable of checkmating it.  

Some of the questions which hover over the future of Russian resurgence are:

  • Russia’s future after Putin demits office in 2008?
  • Is the United States strategically capable of containing Russia’s resurgence?
  • Can the United States break the Russia-China strategic nexus?
  • Would the United States be able to prevent the growing energy-fuelled economic integration of Russia with Europe?

It is believed that even when Putin demits office in 2008 his successor would be handpicked by him and Putin will continue in a father-figure advisory role much like Deng Xiao-Peng of China. This would ensure continuity in Russia’s strategic priorities. 

Regarding all the questions centering on the United States, it seems unlikely that with all its strategic distractions, it can once again launch another Cold War for containment of Russia in the foreseeable future. 

Concluding Observations 

Russia’s strategic resurgence if sustained over a period of time could lead to the materialization of Russian national aspiration to re-emerge as an independent power centre and a countervailing power to the United States. 

This would upset the existing status-quo in the global power balance in favor of the United States as the sole superpower.  For this reason Russia’s resurgence has emerged as a topic of avid debate in the capitals of major world powers. 

The United States is the only power capable of checkmating Russia’s resurgence.  Complicating this strategic picture is China’s strategic nexus with Russia.  The moot question is-can and will the United States resort to an immediate checkmating of Russia’s resurgence or await the imponderables to materialize that may prevent or impede this resurgence?  Only time will tell.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst.  He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group.  Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com) 

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