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Paper no. 2263
05.06.2007
MYANMAR: Going nuclear?
By C. S. Kuppuswamy
Russia has agreed to build a nuclear research centre in Myanmar according to a statement of the Russian atomic energy agency Rosatom released to the press in May 2007. The centre will comprise a 10 MW light-water reactor working on 20%-enriched uranium-235, an activation analysis laboratory, a medical isotope production laboratory, silicon doping system, nuclear waste system and burial facilities. The time schedule or the location for setting up this facility has not been given out. Rosatom Head Sergey Kiriyenko and Myanmar’s Science and Technology Minister U Thaung signed the deal in Moscow.
Myanmar’s aspirations to acquire nuclear technology can be traced back to as early as November 2001, when it came to light that two Pakistani nuclear scientists (Suleiman Asad and Mohamed Ali Mukhtar ) had moved over to Myanmar in 2001, when US intelligence agencies were investigating the involvement of Pak nuclear scientists with the Al Qaeda network.
In January 2002, the then foreign minister Win Aung had conveyed that Myanmar was committed to developing a nuclear research facility for medical purposes and also possibly to generate nuclear power
Russia was to set up a nuclear reactor under an agreement with Myanmar in 2002. The reactor as per the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials was not suitable for nuclear weapons. The deal did not materialize because of financial constraints of Myanmar. However Russia had provided training to Myanmar scientists and military personnel in Russia since 2003 under this agreement. The present agreement again indicates that Russia will be training 300-350 specialists every year.
In an editorial of Burma digest (March 2007), a publication of the rebels, Taisamyone elaborates as to why Myanmar wants to become a nuclear power. The possession of nuclear weapons will be a major deterrent against a possible UNSC military action against the regime. Despite its cordial relations with China and India, the nuclear capability will put the SPDC on equal negotiating terms with these regional powers. The nuclear capability will also help Myanmar to threaten its neighbour Thailand (which has a more professional army) as well as to be in a position of strength in negotiating with other South East Asian nations.
The US has strongly criticized the Russian move to help Myanmar in establishing a nuclear research centre. State Department spokesman Tom Casey said that Myanmar had neither the “legal frame” nor the “safeguard provisions” for a nuclear programme. He also expressed concerns that there were no “accounting mechanisms or other kinds of security procedures” to prevent nuclear fuel from being stolen.
In this context it is of significance to note that Myanmar has reestablished formal bilateral relations with North Korea in end April 2007 (it was severed in 1983). A report indicates that clandestine military ties are however existing since 1999. Clifford McCoy, a Chiang Mai based journalist, writes that there was a speculation that North Korea was building a nuclear reactor with Russian assistance as early as in 2003. He adds that the military junta may see the potential upside to North Korea’s recent nuclear brinkmanship against the United States. Some suspicious shipments from North Korea to Myanmar have also been tracked recently by the US agencies.
China has been a staunch ally of Myanmar for a long time. China has supplied more than $ 1 billion worth of military hardware. The bulk of the aircrafts with the Myanmar air force is of Chinese origin. China has supplied missile boats fitted with missiles and patrol boats to the Myanmar Navy. The Myanmar naval facilities are being modernized with Chinese assistance. China is involved in a big way in improving the infrastructure facilities in Myanmar. China’s reactions on the present nuclear deal with Russia have not come to light but the Chinese may not have any objection. Chinese help to Myanmar in acquiring nuclear capability at a future date cannot also be ruled out.
Pakistan will be too happy to have Myanmar (another India’s neighbour) as a nuclear power. With the two Pak scientists allegedly continuing to stay in Myanmar in an advisory capacity, Pakistan may also stealthily or otherwise help Myanmar with nuclear material or know-how.
News Analysis
Myanmar is a member of the IAEA and thus the nuclear research centre to be established will be monitored by the IAEA. Will Myanmar stand by its commitments for safeguards and inspection? Myanmar has sufficient oil and gas resources like Iran. Yet will it go the Iranian way? It is too early to say.
The avowed purpose of the centre may be generation of nuclear power and medical research. Knowing the way the secretive military junta functions, the long term goal is perhaps to become a nuclear power. The reactor that is being supplied can not be used for a nuclear weapons programme.
With the close cooperation of Myanmar with the powers inimical to the policies of the west such as North Korea, China and Pakistan, supply of nuclear material and know-how by these powers to Myanmar cannot be ruled out..
ASEAN has not been able to exert pressure even to bring in some political reforms in Myanmar. With Indonesia also trying to have such a nuclear facility for peaceful purposes, ASEAN can do little to Myanmar in this regard.
US and the IAEA have now a serious task on hand to prevent proliferation in the South East Asian region.
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