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Paper no. 2450
08-Nov.-2007
PAKISTAN’S MELTDOWN UNDER MUSHARRAF: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR UNITED STATES
By Dr. Subhash Kapila
Introductory Observations
Pakistan’s meltdown after eight years of military rule by General Musharraf finally reached a climax on November 3, 2007 when General Musharraf and his discredited Pakistan Army carried out a second military coup to pre-empt disqualification of General Musharraf’s continuance as self-styled President by Pakistan’s Supreme Court.
Pakistan’s tragic political system’s vulnerabilities to continued usurpation of Pakistan’s governance by the Pakistan Army once again has come into sharp focus.
More tragic for Pakistan is the fact that while Pakistan Army’s earlier military coup in 1999 which brought General Musharraf to power was aimed at bringing down then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for daring to bring the Pakistan Army under civilian control, the current military coup stands “squarely directed at the people of Pakistan” where since March 2007 independent of Pakistan’s political parties, the legal fraternity and the growing Pakistani civil street were involved in wide protests calling for democracy and return of the 1973constitution.
General Musharraf has declared “Emergency” in Pakistan which for all practical purposes is “Martial Law”. The entire Supreme Court of Pakistan stands dismissed except for three or four Musharraf loyalists. A new Chief Justice loyal to Musharraf, Justice Dogar has been appointed as the previous Supreme Court Judges had declared as unconstitutional the declaration of Emergency by General Musharraf as “unconstitutional”. Pakistani press reports indicate that this has Benazir Bhutto’s concurrence.
The earlier Supreme Court judges and leading activists of the judiciary have been placed under house arrest. Leading political leaders of parties other than the ruling PML (Q), Bhutto’s PPP and Musharraf’s Mohajjir MQM are the exceptions. Private TV channels and the print media stand gagged.
In Pakistan today with the murder of democracy for the second time in eight years and in succession, “darkness has descended at noon”, Pakistan’s melt-down has been given its final touches by the Pakistan Army under General Musharraf. A nation's melt-down takes place when political governance is replaced by military governance, the constitution is thrown in the waste-paper basket, judicial processes are thrown out of the window and the people’s political aspirations are brutally suppressed. After eight years of military rule in Pakistan under General Musharraf, this is the current picture of Pakistan today.
Pakistan’s melt down has strategic implications for the region and the United States in particular, not because of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal but more for the wider impact that it would have on United States political influence and military presence in Greater South-West Asia.
To focus on the above, this paper would like to follow on the following related aspects:
- Pakistan’s Brutal Military Suppression: The United States and International Reaction is Disappointing
- United States “Arc of Woe” Widens in Greater South West Asia. Due to Musharraf Generated crisis
- Pakistan’s Meltdown: The Strategic Implications for the United States
- Pakistan Army’s Brutal Political Suppression Could Hasten Pakistan’s Talibanization
Pakistan’s Brutal Military Suppression: The United States and International Reaction is Disappointing
The United States could not be expected to come out with strong denunciation of General Musharraf and Pakistan Army’s current brutal political suppression in Pakistan. The United States, General Musharraf and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto jointly and in union scripted the current unfolding scenario in Pakistan. The United States wanted General Musharraf’s continuance in power in Pakistan at any cost and has been ensured.
The United States in the wake of November 3, 2007 events in Pakistan, therefore made only some muted proforma protests for forms sake. The United States steered clear of outright condemnation of General Musharraf or the Pakistan Army. The United States was totally silent on the imperatives of democracy in Pakistan and the enforcement of civil liberties and human rights.
The Western countries and other allies of the United States adopted similar positions. The United States and these countries are vociferous when it comes to Myanmar, Iran and elsewhere on these counts. Their silence on Pakistan is deafening and affects their image the world over. India as a country likely to be most affected seriously in terms of the turbulence of Pakistan has once again taken cues from Washington on Pakistan. The official statements were not condemnatory nor highlighted the imperatives for restoration of democracy in Pakistan as an Indian strategic imperative. This was the subject of an earlier paper by this author.
India seems to have been oblivious that whenever violent turbulence under military regimes in Pakistan has taken place, the Pakistani rulers resort to military adventurism against India.
India’s statement on Pakistan’s should have reflected that what is happening may be Pakistan’s internal matter but it endangers South Asian regional security and that United States should undo its Pakistan script focusing on Musharraf.
United States “Arc of Woe” Widens in Greater South West Asia. Due to Musharraf Generated crisis
Pakistan’s crisis generated by General Musharraf’s political suppression has all the makings and potential and generating a civil war in Pakistan. The Pakistan Army under him stands badly mauled and discredited in the explosive western frontier provinces of Balochistan and NWFP. The General has launched a frontal attack on Pakistan’s supreme judiciary, its increasingly activist civil society and media. Punjab and Sindh are restive. Suicide bombings especially against Pakistan Army targets has become a daily occurrence.
Pakistan therefore is on the boil today and no amount of military suppression by Musharraf can soothe the Pakistani hatred against General Musharraf and his mafia of Corps Commanders.
The United States strategic “arc of Woe” stretching from Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan now extends to incorporate Pakistan also in its fold. To this when are added the other West Asia flash points of Lebanon, Turkish-Kurdish confrontation, Syria-Israel confrontation, Israel-Palestinian conflicts and the Pakistan supported Taliban in Afghanistan, the United States has its hands full of strategic turbulence which it is not in a position to control.
Pakistan is one place where the United States can control the situation immediately and thereby limiting its “arc of woe”. All that it has to do is to force General Musharraf to quit, warn the corps commanders that further military rule is not acceptable and install an Interim Government with a non-political Interim Prime Minister.
Pakistan’s Meltdown: The Strategic Implications for the United States
Pakistan’s melt-down and lengthening the United States “strategic arc of woe” has already been touched above. The strategic implications for the United States are grave and can be outlined briefly as follows:
Strategically, the United States has been left with hardly any political solution for the Pakistan meltdown other than a direct military intervention to put the wayward Pakistan Army in its place.
Pakistan’s melt-down limits United States strategic options in its confrontation with Iran
United States and NATO’s much sought after political stability and reconstruction in Afghanistan will be seriously endangered. It may even lead to United States and NATO exit from Afghanistan
The entire Eastern flank of Hormuz straits, so important for United States strategic interests in the regime passes to hostile hands
United States strategic interests and attempts for military presence in Central Asia will be seriously endangered
Global terrorism would receive a boost with the Islamic Jehadi outfits emboldened by Pakistan Army’s unrestrained hold on Pakistan.
The United States is likely to endanger strategic support from its traditional Western allies and Japan when they view that the United States with Musharraf as its ‘blind-spot’ is becoming strategically oblivious to the strategic threats that holler on such a course.
Pakistan Army’s Brutal Political Suppression Could Hasten Pakistan’s Talibanization
Pakistan Army’s brutal political suppression launched on the order of General Musharraf to perpetuate his power has left no “safety valve” or outlet to dissipate the rising political opposition against military rule and the continuation of General Musharraf in power at the helm of Pakistan’s affairs.
Pakistan’s agitated masses in political turmoil have been left with no political options to achieve their aspirations for restoration of democracy in Pakistan.
Musharraf’s present suppressive crackdown and the United States tacit approval and orchestrating the script devised to keep Musharraf in power, leaves the Pakistani people with no other alternative but to turn to the gun. At such a breaking point for the Pakistani masses turning to the Taliban or themselves launching “Talibanised strategies” to oust General Musharraf, and the Pakistan Army could become a reality reinforced by their in tense hatred for the United States for concurring in keeping a military regime in power in Pakistan against their opposition. This process could be hastened if the United States persists with the present script.
Pakistan's emerging and enlarging civil society including the judiciary, legal fraternity, the media and civil society activists are the only bulwark against the Talibanisation of Pakistan. Sadly, they today stand sidelined and suppressed by General Musharraf with background support and laudatory American statements appreciating and supporting General Musharraf.
Concluding Observations
Pakistan’s present crisis generated by General Musharraf has no military solutions. The Pakistani General is in no mood for any political solution which does not concede and ensure his continuance in power.
The United States as the strategic patron of General Musharraf, has taken on itself the liability to ensure that the General’s grip on power does not falter. Proforma statements of American protests on General Musharraf’s jettisoning the democratic processes that were striking root in Pakistan cannot hide the strategic reality that it is the majesty of United States power which sustains Musharraf’s military regime against vehement opposition in Pakistan.
In the ultimate analysis of the developing scenario in Pakistan, more than General Musharraf, history would hold the United States for the meltdown of Pakistan and the adverse strategic consequences that are likely to follow for the United States and the region.
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)
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