India At Long Last Wiser To Maritime Threats From The West International Terrorism Monitor---Paper No. 457

India At Long Last Wiser To Maritime Threats From The West International Terrorism Monitor---Paper No. 457

By B. Raman

"Maritime counter-terrorism has received considerable attention in India, but till now the focus has naturally and mostly been on maritime counter-terrorism and security in the waters off Sri Lanka and in the Malacca Strait. There has been inadequate attention to terrorist threats of a strategic nature from the seas to the west of India---- whether from the Gulf, the Arabian Sea, the Strait of Hormuz or the Mediterranean.

Over 80 per cent of the terrorist organisations with a capability for maritime terrorism operate in the areas and seas to the West of India. Over 90 per cent of successful maritime terrorism strikes have taken place in the areas and seas to the West of India. Israel has been the largest single victim of maritime terrorism in the Mediterrannean, with nearly 60 strikes by organisations such as the Hamas, the Hizbollah, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) etc. The only two successful strikes and one unsuccessful attempt by Al Qaeda were off Aden. Almost our entire energy supplies come from this area. The security of the Malacca Strait has limited relevance for our energy security, whereas our entire energy security depends on maritime security in the areas to the West of India. One would have, therefore, expected that the concentration of our maritime counter-terrorism efforts would have been on building a database of capabilities, threats and risks from the areas and seas to the West of India, adopting a vigorous proactive policy of co-operation with the navies of this region and developing preventive and termination capabilities, which would have relevance in the areas to the West of India. Unfortunately, this is not so. The Americans do not want our Navy playing any proactive role in maritime security in the waters to the West of India lest it cause any undue concern in the minds of Pakistan. They, therefore, try to keep our Navy confined to the East and the Malacca Strait. We seem to be happy to go along with this role. This has to change. It is high time the Indian Navy starts paying more attention to threats of maritime terrorism that could arise from the West. Presently, the deployment of a large number of naval ships belonging to the US-led coalition has thwarted any other serious incident of maritime terrorism after the suspected Al Qaeda attack on Limburg in October, 2002 and the attacks on oil terminals in Iraq post-April, 2003. We should not leave the protection of our shipping and our energy supplies totally in the hands of the US-led coalition. We should develop our own capabilities and networking with the countries of the region."

---Extract from my article dated December 28, 2005, titled MARITIME COUNTER-TERRORISM: NEED TO LOOK WEST at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers17/paper1655.html

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"The Malacca Strait is not India's life-line. It is the life-line of China and the ASEAN countries. Our presence in the Malacca Strait tickles our ego and gives us a feeling of being a great power, but it does not help in protecting the lives and property of our citizens and our maritime trade. The major threats to our maritime security are from the seas to the West of us and not to the East of us. Ninety per cent of our foreign trade in terms of volume and 77 per cent in terms of value and practically all our energy imports pass through the seas to the Weast of us. There are more Indian and foreign ships with Indian crew in the seas to the West of us than to the East of us. We should reduce our over pre-occupation with the security of the Malacca Strait and devote more attention to our maritime security in the seas to the West of us."

2. This has been a point repeatedly stressed by me in my presentations on maritime security since 2004. I always found myself in a minority of one. This was so even in a seminar on South-East Asia held at Vizag earlier this year.

3. After a recent increase in the incidents of piracy off the Somali coast and the hijacking of ships with Indian crew by the pirates, the Government of India has at long last been forced to take action to fill up the gaps in our maritime security in the seas to the West of us. One would have seen on the CNN-IBN news channel two days ago dramatic scenes of the relatives of the crew of a hijacked ship accusing the Government of India of inaction in the face of the threats to the lives of their relatives. Of what consolation to them that our naval ships had in the past rescued some Japanese and Indonesian seamen in the seas to the East of us when we are not able to fulfill the obligation of protecting our mercantile seamen in the seas to the west of us? Today, the danger has arisen in a dramatic manner from pirates. Tomorrow, it could be from Al Qaeda or pro-Al Qaeda terrorist groups.

4. On August 15, 2008, Somalian pirates hijacked a Japanese-owned merchant vessel MV Stolt Valor with 18 Indians among the 22 sailors on board. Since then, the 18 Indian crew members are being held hostage at a Somalian port and the shipping company is holding negotiations with the pirates for their release. India is not the only country to suffer due to the activities of the pirates in this area. Ships carrying foodgrains and medicines for the starving people of Somalia have also been the targets of attacks by the pirates.

5. In a recent interview, Josette Sheeran, Executive Director of the UN World Food Programme, said: "Time is running out for Somalia. As many as three million people — one-third of the country — live under threat of starvation. Their lifeline is the sea, from which food, medical supplies, and other aid arrives. And there lies the problem. Heavily armed bands of modern-day pirates in speedboats are terrorising ships in Somalia’s coastal waters. So far this year they have raided more than 50 vessels, stealing cargos and hijacking ships, from private yachts to oil tankers, and extorting some $100 million a year in ransom. Just a few weeks ago, a Ukrainian freighter carrying heavy weaponry, including tanks, was hijacked. A Greek petrochemical carrier was seized, and another attacked, as was an Iranian oil tanker. These pirates currently hold more than a dozen ships hostage in Somali ports. Ships laden with tens of thousands of tons of maize, sorghum, split peas, and cooking oil from the United Nations World Food Programme and other international aid organisations must navigate these dangerous waters. Keeping Somalia’s sea-borne supply line open is imperative. It carries 90 per cent of the humanitarian assistance delivered by the WFP, which in turn supplies nearly 90 per cent of the aid that feeds so many Somalis.These pirate terrorists are not particularly powerful. Estimates put their number at around 1,200. But they are growing increasingly brazen, all the more so when not confronted.
Since November 2007, following a series of pirate raids, Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark, and France deployed naval frigates to escort WFP aid ships safely into harbour. Under their protection, not a single ship has come under attack, ensuring the uninterrupted flow of assistance. Yet despite that clear success, the future is uncertain. The Canadian naval mission ends in late October, and no country has stepped forward to replace it. Without naval escorts, food aid will not get to Somalia. The WFP has stockpiled sufficient supplies to keep relief flowing for some days. But once those warehouses are empty, the country and its people will be on their own. I am optimistic that some nation will come to the rescue — but we must not risk this happening too late, or not at all. Beyond that, we need a long-term plan. We at the United Nations are duty-bound to do what compassion and human decency demand of us. Is the world really going to stand by and watch more children die of starvation? Somalia’s political future is uncertain at best. Yet we need to set to work on a plan for deploying a viable multinational force to help secure peace there, or at the very least sustain its people. There is a clear way to begin. The first step is for some country or countries to volunteer the naval force needed to preserve Somalia’s humanitarian lifeline. The next is to develop a comprehensive strategy, in conjunction with the UN Security Council, to eliminate piracy in Somali waters. "

6. According to news agency reports, Somali pirates have seized more than 30 ships this year and attacked many more. Most attacks have been in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and north Somalia, a major global sea artery used by about 20,000 vessels a year heading to and from Suez, including Gulf oil shipments. The most dramatic incident has been the hijacking of an Ukrainian ship MV Faina carrying 33 tanks bound for an unidentified destination. The Kenyan and Ukrainian authorities have claimed that these tanks are meant for Kenya, but the Americans seem to suspect that the ship was carrying these tanks for the autonomous government of South Sudan, in possible contravention of a UN arms embargo. The pirates, estimated to be 50 in number, are reportedly demanding a ransom of US $ 20 million for releasing the ship with its cargo and crew. An American and a Russian naval ships have reached the area, but have refrained from intervening so far---- probably due to some unconfirmed reports that the ship was also carrying some chemicals.

7.A spokesman for the US Navy's 5th Fleet, Lt Nathan Christensen, has been quoted by news agencies as saying that the USS Howard was within 8km (5 miles) of the Ukrainian vessel, but refused to say whether they were preparing to attack the pirates. He said the ship's cargo of battle tanks made it a particularly worrying situation. "We're concerned that this might end up in the wrong hands, such as terrorists or violent extremists," he said.

8. In the wake of these developments, the Government of India announced on October 16, 2008, the deployment with immediate effect of an Indian naval warship with helicopters and marine commandoes on board in the Gulf of Aden to carry out anti-piracy patrols on the route usually followed by Indian commercial vessels between Salalah ( Oman) and Aden (Yemen). A Government spokesperson said: " The presence of the Indian Navy warship in this area will be significant as the Gulf of Aden is a major strategic choke point in the Indian Ocean region and provides access to the Suez Canal through which a sizable portion of India's trade flows. This anti-piracy patrol will be carried out in co-ordination with the Directorate-General of Shipping , who will keep Indian flagship vessels informed in case they want to travel in the Indian Ocean along with the Indian Navy ship. The presence of the Indian Navy in the area will help to protect our seaborne trade and instil confidence in our seafaring community as well as function as a deterrent for pirates."

9. This statement and other clarifications by the Government spokespersons have highlighted the following:

This is a permanent measure to protect vessels with Indian flags and Indian crew carrying goods for India.
It is not a one-shot measure triggered off by the hijacking of a Japanese ship with Indian crew.
The deployment of more ships for the anti-piracy patrol is not ruled out.
The deployment is not a prelude to intervention by the Indian ship to rescue the Indian crew.

10. While this welcome action will to some extent take care of the protection of Indian commercial ships transiting this area, it does not address the problem of controlling and eradicating piracy in this area. India alone will not be able to address this menace. It will have to act jointly with the navies of the US, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries and possibly, one day, even Pakistan. This requires careful study. There is a need for more and sustained joint anti-piracy patrolling and exercises in this area.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)