Pakistan Army Chief’s Visit To Russia Strategically Analyzed

PAKISTAN ARMY CHIEF’S VISIT TO RUSSIA STRATEGICALLY ANALYZED

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani visited Russia from June 21-23, 2009. The ostensible reasons advanced for the visit of Pak Army Chief was to seek Russian weapons to fight the Taliban.

The invitation for the visit by the Pak Army Chief was extended by the Russian Commander-in-chief Land Forces, General Vladimir Boldyrev.

The visit of the Pak Army Chief follows within a week of the meetings of Russian President Medvedev and Pakistani President Zardari during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting.

Notably, Pakistan’s former President and Pak Army Chief, General Musharraf had visited Russia on a ‘private visit' a week earlier.

By itself a visit by the Pakistani Army Chief to any country would not draw much attention. But the visit of Pakistani Army Chief to Russia becomes strategically significant when it is borne in mind that Pakistan Army has no major Russian weapon systems and equipment on its military inventories.

This Paper intends to strategically analyse the Pakistani Army Chief’s visit to Russia on the following lines:

Pakistan’s Politico-Military Signalling to the United States on US Af-Pak Policy
Russia’s Interest in Enhancing Strategic Ties with Pakistan
The Saudi Arabian Factor in Promoting Russia-Pakistan Military Ties
Strategic Significance for India?

Pakistan’s Politico-Military Signalling to the United States on US Af-Pak Policy

Pakistan Army Chief’s visit to Russia needs to be seen in the context of the strong pressures built on Pakistan by the United States on an effective implementation of the Af-Pak Policy.

Pakistan effectively stands cornered by the United States into dropping its military double-timing on the issue of eradication of the Al Qaeda and Taliban from its frontier bad-lands. Pakistan also fears that its nuclear weapons arsenal neutralization may be a tangential target of the United States.

In terms of countervailing power, Pakistan can only count strategically on China. In relation to the United States, the countervailing power of China is limited.

In Pakistan’s perceptions, the Russia-China strategic nexus provides a more effective countervailing power to Pakistan against the United States. Hence the present politico-military outreach to Russia by Pakistan.

In the last days of his regime, General Musharraf had strongly advocated on a number of occasions that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (Russia-China counter to NATO) be involved in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s aim then was to internationalize the Afghanistan issue and dilute United States exclusive hold.

It takes years to build strategic partnerships and the Pakistan Chief’s visit to Russia seems to be more aimed at politico-military signaling to the United States to dilute its strong pressures on Pakistan in the implementation of the Af-Pak policy.

Russia’s Interest in Enhancing Strategic Ties with Pakistan

Significantly, Russia stands out as the only global power which scrupulously kept away from an intrusive presence in South Asia, like the United States and China. This was in defense to India’s strategic sensitivities and the value that Russia imparted to the Russia-India Strategic Partnership.

That Russia should now be inclined to reverse this policy and seek to build close military ties with Pakistan has obviously something to do with the pronounced US tilt in Indian policies of the last five years.

To that extent, Russia too could be sending politico-military signals to both India and the United States in terms of South Asia.

Russia is also aware that in terms of politico-military signaling it has China too in tandem with it.

Russia should be aware that Pakistan ultimately has to fall back on United States financial largesse to sustain itself. Russia and China are not inclined to bankroll Pakistan financially.

The Saudi Arabian Factor in Promoting Russia-Pakistan Military Ties

In earlier Papers of this Author on former Russian President (now PM) Putin’s strategic forays in the Middle East, one major strategic outcome that was pointed out was the establishment of substantial Russia-Saudi Arabia military ties. Saudi Arabia had placed multi-billion dollars orders for Russian military equipment and Russian assistance for Saudi space program.

Saudi Arabia’s aim was to shake off its strategic and military dependence on the United States. Saudi Arabia struck close ties with China too but it was Russia that it turned to for military weapons and equipment.

One cannot rule out that Saudi Arabia may have facilitated the Pakistan Army Chief’s visit to Russia and Pakistan willingness to respond to Saudi leads.

It needs to be noted that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have a convergence in sustaining the Al Qaeda and Taliban. That convergence runs contrary to the end-aims of the US Af-Pak Policy.

Russia and China, logically have concerns for Pakistan based exports of Islamic Jihad to their territories and Pakistan is suspect. But then politics and strategic compulsions make for strange bed-fellows.

Strategic Significance for India?

In the personal opinion of this Author, it is high time that India behaves like a major power. India should not get rattled by any of Pakistan’s strategic irritations that it periodically keeps creating to upset India. Nor should India get into reactive diplomacy to such Pakistani moves.

The Russian C-in-C Land Forces who invited General Kayani to Moscow was in New Delhi a week or two prior for substantive discussions on Russia-India military ties. Russia should not be expected to be strategically naive in the assessment of the comparative weightage of its strategic relationships with India and Pakistan.

The Pakistani Army Chief’s visit to Russia should not therefore create any strategic ripples in India’s policy establishment.

India has survived China’s build-up of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missiles arsenal. India can also take in its stride any substantial increase in Russia-Pakistan military ties, should they so develop.

Concluding Observations

Pakistan Army Chief’s visit to Moscow after a gap of nearly six years should be viewed as nothing more than politico-military signaling by Pakistan to the United States and by Russia to India.

Pakistan under tremendous United States political and military pressure for action on its Af-Pak Policy has in its wake indulged in a flurry of multi-lateral diplomacy. President Zardari is always on the move to foreign capitals and international meets. Pakistan’s Interior Minister went on a hurried trip to China at about the same time. General Kayani visited Germany before his Moscow visit.

It is not that Pakistan has overnight emerged as a diplomatic heavy weight. This flurry of diplomatic visits is seemingly part of politico-military signaling by Pakistan to the United States to ease-off pressure on Pakistan in its Af-Pak Policy.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)